Outlook for the Week

25-Oct-2010

2010-10-24T20:33:00.001-07:00

Markets are in consolidation mode and are not expected to show any major move on the either side. Nifty shall find strong resistance near 6200-6240 and support will come in at 5900. Nifty will trade in the overall trading band of 5900-6200 during the coming week as results keep coming in. Markets would trade stock specific and hence it is recommended to select stocks that are under performing and be on the buy side.

BUY
ORCHIDCHEM @ 318-320 Tgt 340 SL 314
ADANIENT @ 678-680 Tgt 724, 740 SL 660
AUROPHARMA @ 1164-1166 Tgt 1220 SL 1154

18-Oct-2010

2010-10-17T17:56:00.000-07:00

2nd quarter numbers started coming in and markets are witnessing profit taking on solid corporate performance. Nifty finds strong resistance above 6200 in the near term while immediate support comes at 5930. The correction may extend even towards 5780 in an adverse market. Markets would still trade stock specific and one must look at buying specific stocks on this correction. Laggards may get accumulated and may start moving up in the coming weeks.

BUY
ORCHIDCHEM @ 298-300 Tgt 340 SL 290
ADANIENT @ 678-680 TGT 724, 740 SL 660

SELL
RCOM @ 180-182 TGT 168 SL 185
INFOSYSTCH @ 3070-3080 TGT 2900 SL 3120

11-Oct-2010

2010-10-10T20:21:00.000-07:00

As expected, Nifty failed to hold above 6200 and corrected despite strong global markets. The overall direction of the markets would depend more on the 2nd quarter results and guidance from the corporate. Overall market sentiment shall remain positive and hence one should trade stock specific. Our markets may turn volatile due to results season and uncertain global clues. One must remain light on the positions and trade stock specific.

BUY
BANKBARODA @ 924-926 TGT 982 SL 916
CIPLA @ 335-336 TGT 361 SL 330
HINDALCO @ 212-214 TGT 222, 239 SL 206
RELIANCE @ 1055-1060 TGT 1200 SL 1030
AUROPHARMA @ 1100-1110 TGT 1210 SL 1085

4-Oct-2010

2010-10-03T20:20:00.000-07:00

Due to unavoidable circumstances we couldnt deliver the weekly news letter for the past 7 weeks. We regret the inconvenience.

Outlook for the Week:

As predicted in July, both Sensex and Nifty moved above the crucial psychological resistance levels of 20000 and 6000 respectively. Nifty finds strong resistance above 6200 and hence one should look at booking profits at this juncture. Only a close above 6200 would prompt Nifty to extend the rally towards 6500. The global clues are strong going into the next week and we may expect a strong opening. Short term Nifty traders may sell nifty above 6200 with a day close stoploss above 6240 for an initial target objective of 5930. Markets would still trade stock specific with select stocks getting accumulated during the correction and witness sharp rallies.

BUY
IDBI @ 158-160 TGT 200 SL 150
SOBHA @ 390-392 TGT 442 SL 376
HINDUNILVR @ 308-310 TGT 322, 338 SL 302
OFSS @ 2290-2300 TGT 2480 SL 2250

SELL
RELIANCE @ 1035-1040 TGT 960 SL 1060
IDEA @ 75 TGT 70 SL 76

09-Aug-2010

2010-08-08T20:25:00.000-07:00

Markets rallied once again after taking break during the week before. Both Sensex and Nifty went up close to 1.5% week on week. Shipping, Metals, FMCG, Energy and Auto stocks were among the gainers.

The global economic data was not so heartening and hence we may see some correction in asset markets across the globe. Markets back home are likely to remain firm despite weak global cues and hence every correction should be treated as a buying opportunity. The risk reward over medium term is highly in favour of buyers. We may witness huge rallies in specific stocks over the coming 1-2 years and hence one should pick the right stories and play long. 5340 Should be the stoploss in Nifty for a target objective of 5800 over the coming 4-6 months.

BUY
TATACHEM @ 352-354 TGT 392 SL 340
PANTALOONR @ 464-466 TGT 500 SL 454
MUNDRAPORT @ 770-772 TGT 820 SL 755
APIL @ 722-724 TGT 760 SL 715

02-Aug-10

2010-08-01T20:17:00.001-07:00

The cues from global markets are positive this morning and our markets back home are looking promising going ahead. Nifty kissed the crucial short term support level of 5350 and bounced back. 5350-5340 remains a crucial short term support in the near term while resistances are placed near 5450-5460. Hence markets may find resistance at higher levels and hover around 5400. 5340 is the support which needs to be watched. If markets are able to breach this level we may witness a correction towards 5260 immediately. Short positions may be contemplated in Nifty at the breach of 5340 with a strict stoploss of 5360. Buyers may hold long positions on Nifty with a stoploss of 5340 for a target objective of 5800. Wait for the markets to consolidate before committing. Today’s closing will be crucial for the markets and hence wait for a day or two.

Buying may be contemplated in Tata Chemicals, Pantaloon Retail, Voltas, CESC, United Phosphorous and ITC.

26-July-2010

2010-07-25T20:28:00.000-07:00

Markets traded with mixed to positive bias for the last week amid mixed set of fundamental data flow and positive corporate results. The action remained out of the index and select midcaps rallied as market breadth remained flat. Metals, Banking, Telecom and Capital Goods did well while IT and Financials saw some selling. It was a week which saw stock specific performances from all sectors. The top gainers among Nifty stocks included Ambuja Cement, GAIL, Tata Steel, Idea, Sterlite, Bharti and Hindalco while Dr Reddy, ABB and BPCL were among the top losers.

The cues from global markets are positive this morning and our markets back home are looking promising going ahead. Last couple of weeks witnessed a smart consolidation in the major indices followed by a strong breakout on Thursday keeping the chances alive for a strong rally going ahead. 17800 on Sensex and 5340 on Nifty are crucial support levels to keep the positive tone intact for initial target objectives of 20000 and 6000 respectively. Maintain stoploss below the said levels and continue to hold long.

19-Jul-2010

2010-07-18T20:24:00.001-07:00

Markets traded with positive bias for the last week with corporate numbers let the markets alive despite weakness in global markets. Infosys came with encouraging guidance for the year though profits for the quarter stayed below expectations. TCS results enthused the markets and the stock responded sharply. Banking sector came out of the range bound trading and many stocks in the sector broke out to record their respective yearly/all time highs. Oil and Gas stocks corrected sharply after moving up substantially during the past many weeks. Realty stocks staged a strong bounce back as metals, technology and Pharma stocks were trading mixed. Unitech, Tata Motors, TCS, DLF, Axis Bank and IDFC were among the major gainers while BPCL, GAIL, M&M, RCom and Infosys were among the major Nifty losers.

The global cues are weak going into the next week and as indications come in we might see a gap down opening. Markets look set for a strong rally even from these levels despite weakness elsewhere. Markets are holding near the crucial resistance of 5400 which shows the resilience. On the upside the target on Nifty may extend to 6000 during the coming 6 months with 5240 as support. A breach below 5200 may drift the markets down towards 4800. It is going to be stock pickers’ markets going further and hence one must look for buying opportunities on corrections in specific stocks.

12-Jul-2010

2010-07-11T20:10:00.000-07:00

Both Sensex and Nifty inched up 2% over the week to close near the highs once again. Telecom stocks took a giant leap after months of underperformance and figured among the major gainers for the week. It was a secular run and all sectors participated in the rally amid positive market breadth. In F&O segment 4 stocks gained for every one stock lost and the rises came despite weakness in the global markets. That shows the strength Indian markets are depicting. Bharti, Idea, M&M, BPCL, DLF and Infosys were the top gainers while ACC, Reliance Infra, JP Associates and NTPC figured among the losers.

The first quarter results are round the corner and start pouring in from here on. All indications suggest a strong quarter and our markets will react positively to the numbers. IMF revised the GDP growth forecast for India and this gave a strong boost to the markets. The long term fundamentals are extremely strong for India and therefore sharp corrections should be utilized to buy the markets. In the immediate term Nifty finds resistance at 5400 and if it manages to close above this level, we may see strong rallies ahead. We expect markets to find resistance at 5400 and correct below 5000. A fall below 5240 confirms the corrective tone. Trade Stock specific with strict stoplosses and target objectives.

05-Jun-10 - Markets ripe for a sharp decline

2010-07-04T20:31:00.000-07:00

As predicted midcap and small cap stocks were in lime light while both Sensex and Nifty lost less than a percentage week on week. Markets were trading range bound with weak bias amid mixed global clues. PSU Oil Refining and Marketing companies were the major gainers during the week after the announcement of deregulation of fuel prices. BPCL, IDFC, Reliance Power and ONGC were the top Nifty gainers while Cairn, GAIL, Jindal Steel, Sterlite, Hindalco and Tata Steel were among the major losers.

The global markets are mixed and we can expect a flat opening in our markets. The global markets don’t look too rosy as the economic data emanating from US and Euro Zone doesn’t give any hopes of a sharp revival. The Euro Zone financial crisis shall escalate and percolate to other Euro Nations with high public debt to GDP ratio and ultimately clouding the sentiments over the structure of the currency and financial markets. The overall situation is that of uncertainty and in all probability India will emerge as a stronger nation.

5200 on Nifty is a strong near term support and breach of this level shall pave the way for a steep fall towards 5000 in the coming couple of weeks. A strong correction is long overdue and the quarterly results may well be the trigger. On the upside 5400 is a major resistance. Markets will find resistance near 5400 and may correct below 5000 with the possibilities of the fall being extended to 4600 remaining open.

Exit all long positions and traders are recommended to remain short on Nifty at every rise with an overall stoploss of 5400.

28-Jun-2010

2010-06-27T19:31:00.001-07:00

Markets inched up sharply on the first trading day and corrected during the entire week to manage a close near the last week’s levels. Both Sensex and Nifty closed flat amid range bound trading. Mid cap stocks were active entire week and laggards were trying to play catch up with the markets. All the midcap and small cap indices closed the week with gains. Oil refiners and marketing companies got the deregulation boost from the govt and they staged a strong rally on Friday. Technology stocks corrected fair bit during the week while FMCG stocks were among major gainers.

Markets look undecided as to the direction and hence trade range bound for the coming week. 5200-5400 should be the band in Nifty and it requires breach of either of these levels to take a direction. The action will remain in midcap and small cap stocks as indicated by the market breadth previous week while indices consolidate in a narrow range. The laggards shall take charge here and play catch up. Global markets look for direction too and hence sluggish trading activity is expected across all asset classes. Stay stock specific with proper target objectives and adequate stoplosses.

BUY
BHARATFORG @ 284-286 TGT 304, 320 SL 278
TV-18 @ 90-91 TGT 100 SL 88
RELCAPITAL @ 758-760 TGT 840 SL 736

21-June-2010

2010-06-20T20:21:00.001-07:00

Markets continue from where they left and extended the gains. Both Sensex and Nifty rallied closed to 3% over previous week. Market breadth was positive and markets traded with upward bias throughout the week. From a low of 5120 Nifty went on to touch one and a half month high breaching 5300 before settling down below 5300. Metals, Infrastructure, Technology, Telecom, Capital Goods and Power were the sectors which gained ground. Reliance ADA Group stocks need a special mention as all of them rallied after truce between Ambani brothers. Reliance Capital (7.75%), DLF (7.72%), L&T (7.24%), RCom (7.01%), Sterlite (6.78%), Reliance Power (6.66%) and Infosys (5.91%) were the major Nifty gainers. BPCL (3.57%), Grasim (3.30%), Bharti (3.13%) and Axis Bank (2.75%) were the major losers.

Global markets are trading positive this morning and we might see our markets open with small upside gap. The immediate resistance for Nifty exists near 5300 and a strong resistance awaits at 5400. It finds strong immediate term support at 5200. Only a breach of this level would negate the short term bullish momentum. Markets are likely to find resistance near 5400 and correct. The sovereign debt crisis is threatening to percolate to other Euro nations and this is going to be a major headwind for the global economic growth in the coming few quarters. There is a major risk of markets going into tailspin if the nations with high public debt to GDP ratios fail to garner much support and able to borrow with reasonable difference to benchmark rates. The recent demand for Spanish Bonds issue should be viewed as a short term reprieve. Hence in the medium term, the upside is capped near 5400 with the possibilities of Nifty attaining 4500 remaining open if the global issues escalate.

OPEN POSITIONS
UNIPHOS Bought @ 180 Tgt 200 SL 178
NAGARCONST Bought @ 176 Tgt 202, 220 SL 176
LITL Bought @ 60 Tgt 72 SL 64
YESBANK Bought @ 281 Tgt 304 SL 274

BUY
FEDERALBNK @ 324 Tgt 360 SL 316

Exited
MPHASIS SL Trig @ 590
HINDZINC SL Trig @ 990

14-June-2010

2010-06-13T19:55:00.000-07:00

Markets moved up sharply during the latter half of the week after witnessing sharp fall for the initial half. Both Sensex and Nifty closed down by a meager loss of 0.31% week on week. The market breadth was negative with stock specific performances. Oil & Gas, Technology and Metals were particularly weak while Automobile and Cement stocks gained strength. M&M, Cipla, HDFC Bank and Siemens were among the top gainers while DLF, BPCL, Hindalco, HCL Tech and Unitech were the top Nifty losers.

Global markets are trading positive this Monday morning and we might see our markets open with small upside gap. The immediate resistance for Nifty exists at 5200. Nifty finds strong immediate term support near 5060 and would attempt to reach 5200. 5200-5220 band would act as a major resistance zone. If Nifty is able to breach this resistance, we may see it attaining 5400 in short term. The sovereign debt crisis is threatening to percolate to other Euro nations and this is going to be a major headwind for the global economic growth in the coming few quarters. There is a major risk of markets going into tailspin if the nations with high public debt to GDP ratios fail to garner much support and able to borrow with reasonable difference to benchmark rates. The recent demand for Spanish Bonds issue should be viewed as a short term reprieve. Hence in the medium term, the upside is capped near 5400 with the possibilities of Nifty attaining 4500 remaining open if the global issues escalate.

OPEN POSITIONS

UNIPHOS Bought @ 180 ON 8-JUN TGT 200 SL 175*
NAGARCONST Bought @ 176 ON 8-JUN TGT 202, 220 SL 176*
LITL Bought @ 60 ON 9-JUN TGT 72 SL 60*
MPHASIS Sold @ 570 ON 7-JUN TGT 520* SL 590
HINDZINC Sold @ 960 ON 7-JUN TGT 920* SL 990

FRESH POSITIONS
YESBANK Buy @ 280-282 TGT 304 SL 274

* Revised.

2010-06-06T20:32:00.001-07:00

Both Sensex and Nifty moved up close to one and a half percent amid stable to weak global markets. Markets recovered sharply during the last two weeks rising strongly from the low witnessed on 25th of last month. Sensex broke 17000 once again and managed a decent close for the week. Small and Mid cap stocks fared better with CNX midcap index inching up by more than 4% week on week. RCom (14.35%), Idea (11.45%), Maruti (8.56%), M&M (7.19%), HUL (6.49%), Bharti (5.98%), IDFC (5.69%), ONGC (5.09%), Reliance Infra (5.06%), Reliance Capital (4.97%), Sun Pharma (4.48%) were the top Nifty gainers while Suzlon (8.60%), Sterlite (4.88%), Grasim (4.07%), Jindal Steel (3.80%), JP Associates (3.66%) and Unitech (3.06%) were among the top losers.

US markets saw sharp decline on Friday with fears at Euro Zone aggravating with each passing day. EUROUSD corrected sharply as the fears of sovereign defaults refused to recede. The fears saw asset classes across the board tumble as safer currencies Dollar and Gold managed strong gains. Our markets will try to test the support of 4800 before any further move. We may see our markets open with a sharp gap down and try to test the immediate support of 4960. Strong support awaits the markets at 4760-4800. Much would depend on how the global markets fare. Wait for better opportunities to buy strong counters.

BUY
UNIPHOS @ 178-180 Tgt 200 SL 172
NAGARCONST @ 176 Tgt 202, 220 SL 170
LITL @ 59-60 Tgt 72 SL 57

SELL
EDUCOMP @ Mkt Tgt 480 SL 540
TECHM @ Mkt Tgt 610 SL 720
MPHASIS @ 570-575 Tgt 520 SL 590
HINDZINC @ 950-960 Tgt 820 SL 990

31-May-2010

2010-05-30T19:50:00.000-07:00

Markets across the globe recovered sharply after the steep fall of the preceding week. Sensex and Nifty rose 2.54% and 2.75% respectively while CNX Midcap index moved up by over 4%. The market breadth remained positive during the week. After creating a low of 4786, Nifty rallied sharply for the last 3 days of the week to close well above 5000. Reliance Power, RCom, JP Associates, Reliance Infra, Sterlite, Unitech, Sun Pharma, ABB and Tata Motors were the top Nifty gainers all gained over 5% during the week. Grasim, ACC, Idea and Tata Steel were the top losers in Nifty.

Markets look evenly poised as we entered the fresh series. The global markets look stable after a reasonable correction. Our markets should be biased upwards as broader fundamentals favor buying interest. The recent low near 4800 on Nifty remains a strong support in the short term. On the upside immediate resistance is placed at 5200. Markets may consolidate in the band of 5000-5200 before taking any direction. Infrastructure stocks were beaten down pretty badly during the past few months and they may well turn out to be the outperformers in the coming months. Trade stock specific with strict stoplosses.

BUY
PFC @ 286-288 Tgt 300 SL 284
DIVISLAB @ 718-720 Tgt 760 SL 710
LUPIN @ 1800 Tgt 1880 SL 1785

SELL
NTPC @ 201-202 Tgt 190 SL 204
MCDOWELL-N @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1000 SL 1250
MPHASIS @ 600-605 Tgt 480 SL 620

24-May-2010

2010-05-23T20:15:00.001-07:00

Markets corrected sharply during the week along with the weak global markets and amid negative news flow coming from the Eurozone. Both Sensex and Nifty lost over 3% week over week and all other supporting indices fell anywhere between 3-5%. The market breadth was extremely negative with only 24 stocks among 190 stocks traded in the F&O segment ending the week with gains. ABB saved the day for Nifty with over 23% gain after the announcement of the parent increasing the stake came as a surprise. GAIL, L&T, ONGC and BPCL were among other Nifty gainers. The losers were aplenty with Tata Motors leading the pack with over 13% loss over the week. Suzlon lost over 10% followed by DLF (9.9%), Unitech (9.74%), HCL Tech (9.36%), JP Associates (9.26%), Idea (9.11%), Ranbaxy (8.93%), Sterlite (8.51%), ICICI Bank (8.37%), IDFC (8.29%), Rcom (7.72%) and Hindalco (7.19%).

Markets are recovering from the last week’s massacre but the sustainability remains in question. Markets may see some recovery in the near term but the lingering concerns over the fate of global economy will keep the markets subdued in the short to medium term. Our markets may see stocks specific performances and it might take some time for the markets to really start moving up and catch a sustainable trend. Till then the overall direction would be dictated by what’s happening globally. Trade specific stocks with strict stoplosses and profit objectives.

BUY
ITC @ 265-266 Tgt 282 SL 260
LUPIN @ 1800 Tgt 1880 SL 1785

SELL
NTPC @ 200-201 Tgt 190 SL 203
OFSS @ 2080-2090 Tgt 2000, 1900 SL 2120
MCDOWELL-N @ 1200 Tgt 1000 SL 1240

17-May-2010

2010-05-16T20:20:00.001-07:00

Markets recovered smartly last week after a steep fall witnessed during the week before, but gave away most of the gains on the last trading day. At the end of the week both Sensex and Nifty closed with around 1.5% gains week over week. All major and indices were positive and mid caps did well. It was a market with stock specific performances with positive momentum from Automobiles, Technology, Pvt Banking, Financials and Realty space. Axis Bank (8.78%), Dr Reddy (7.17%), Tata Motors (7.01%), M&M (6.83%), HDFC Bank (5.61%), HCL Tech (5.15%) and DLF (4.88%) were the top Nifty gainers while Idea (9.94%), Cipla (8.45%), Bharti (7.98%), Rcom (5.77%) and Ambuja Cement (4.73%) were among the top losers.

The global clues this morning were extremely negative as correction sets in across all asset classes. Markets back home may not behave differently and hence caution is advised. It looks difficult to make a strong comeback since the worries in the coming quarters look like worsening further. The sovereign default risks at Euro Zone, Negative outlook on China and interest rate fears at US are going to make things worse from here. Buyers should choose only specific stocks and for sellers the opportunities are wide open. Trade with strict stoplosses.

BUY
GODREJIND @ 160-162 Tgt 180 SL 156

SELL
MCDOWELL-N @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1100, 1020 SL 1260
JINDALSAW @ 190-192 Tgt 172 SL 197
HINDZINC @ 1080 Tgt 980 SL 1120
STER @ MKT Tgt 600 SL 730
OFSS @ 2120-2130 Tgt 2000 SL 2150

10-May-2010

2010-05-09T20:17:00.000-07:00

Markets lost fair bit of ground on back of problems at various pockets of the world. While US seems recovering from the worst problems continue to haunt the Eurozone. There are already talks about Chinese economy going bust due to very high base effect. Chinese equity markets were under pressure since past many weeks and the weakness caught at other markets. Both Sensex and Nifty lost over 5% apiece and the weakness remained across all sectors. All sectors lost fair bit of ground without exception. BPCL (6.26%), Idea (3.68%), Ranbaxy (1.43%) were the only gainers in Nifty. ADAG group stocks saw heavy selling after the RIL-RNRL verdict came out on Friday. Reliance Infra (13.97%), Reliance Power (13.91%), ABB (13.83%), Sterlite (13.82%), Unitech (13.76%), Jindal Steel (12.66%), Tata Motors (12.59%) and JP Associates (12.06%) were the top Nifty losers.

Markets are looking shaky after the fears of sovereign defaults gripped the global markets again. A lot depends on how global markets fare in the near term. Another 10% fall on the index doesn’t look improbable at this point in time. Any rise from here should be a selling opportunity and hence one should remain a seller at rises. Only a close above 5200 shall turn the things back in the favour of bulls. It pays to be on the short side as long as the overall weakness remains.

BUY
ADANIENT @ 538-540 Tgt 580 SL 530

SELL
RECLTD @ 253-254 Tgt 241, 236 SL 256
MCDOWELL-N @ 1240 Tgt 1100, 1020 SL 1260
IDFC @ 160-162 Tgt 148, 142 SL 163
HINDZINC @ 1115-1120 Tgt 980 SL 1135
STER @ 738-740 Tgt 600 SL 760

03-May-2010

2010-05-02T20:28:00.001-07:00

Markets were trading mixed during the last week as Midcap and Banking stocks continued to head upwards while other sectors took breathing. Both Sensex and Nifty lost nearly half a percentage points with slightly negative market breadth. The F&O expiry was smooth without much volatility. Cairn India was the biggest Nifty gainers, with a 6% WoW gain, along with Sterlite (4.17%), Dr Reddy (3.87%), BPCL (3.76%), ONGC (3.63%) and Cipla (3.48%). The major losers included Sun Pharma (6.71%), Idea (6.71%), DLF (6.5%), JP Associates (6.19%), Maruti (6%), Reliance (5.02%) and ABB (3.83%).

Markets look sluggish as we move into the fresh month with most of the big results already out. Weak Global markets, Crisis at Euro Zone and rising interest rates are the major worries to the markets as we go into the next week. The global clues are negative but markets back home should find strong support at declines. Close below 5180 on Nifty is required to turn the markets weak in medium term. Most of the action would remain outside index where we witnessed quite a bit of accumulation during the recent past. It is advisable to trade stock specific with strict target objectives.

BUY
HINDZINC @ 1230-1232 Tgt 1320, 1380 SL 1210
INDIANB @ 220-222 Tgt 240 SL 215
SCI @ 163-164 Tgt 172, 180 SL 160
CAIRN @ 310-312 Tgt 321, 333 SL 304
CHAMBLFERT @ 64.50-65 Tgt 72, 80 SL 63

26-Apr-2010

2010-04-25T20:33:00.000-07:00

Markets moved up sharply after consolidating in narrow band for initial part of the week. Both Sensex and Nifty ended the week with less than a percentage gains but Banking took the lead and Bank Nifty moved up sharply by close to 5%. Sugar continued to reel under pressure while Technology, Metals, Telecom and Capital goods saw profit taking. SBI and HCL Tech were the biggest Nifty gainers with over 10% WoW gains. Axis Bank(7.62%), Tata Motors(7.61%), JP Associates(6.32%), HUL(5.33%), Unitech(5.18%) were among other major Nifty gainers. Sun Pharma(6.89%), Tata Steel(6.81%), Sterlite(5.07%), TCS(4.28%), Wipro(4.18%) and Cairn(3.44%) were the top nifty losers.

The sentiment remains positive as we go into the next week. Markets across all asset classes recovered and show strength. Nifty should find support near 5260 and inch towards the crucial resistance of 5400-5420. If this band is taken out, we may see levels of 5600 on Nifty very soon. There are no negative surprises this time in the corporate results. Markets are trading with less volatility and as we move closer to the expiry date. Options build up indicate that Nifty shall close the month near 5300. It will be a range bound market trading between 5260-5420.

[B]BUY[/B]
JINDALSTEL @ CMP Tgt 740, 760 SL 710
INDIANB @ 190-191 Tgt 202, 220 SL 187
AXISBANK @ 1220-1225 Tgt 1300 SL 1200
JPASSOCIAT @ 154-155 Tgt 168 SL 152
TATATEA @ 1030-1034 Tgt 1014 SL 1120

19-Apr-10

2010-04-18T20:08:00.001-07:00

Markets corrected despite positive global cues and better than expected numbers. Both Sensed and Nifty lost close to 2% each week over week. Infosys came out with reasonably good results and the entire IT sector reacted taking the CNX IT index up by over 3% in a falling market. The fall came amid higher volumes and weak market breadth. Unitech was the biggest Nifty gainer with a 6.8% rise followed by Infosys (4.2%), TCS (2.97%), Tata Steel (2.88%) and HUL (2.55%). The losers were HDFC (5.92%), ICICI Bank (5.71%), RCom (5.56%), Sterlite (5.37%), M&M (4.93%) and Reliance Capital (4.81%).

Global markets reacted negatively to the fraud charges levied against Goldman Sachs by SEC taking the US and European markets tumbling down on Friday. The impact on the Asian Markets is no less severe. All the indices are trading with deep cuts and in we are in for a gap down opening. Nifty may find support near 5180-5200, which acts as a immediate term support. On the upside resistance is strong resistance is placed near the recent high of 5400. Nifty should find support below 5200 and bounce back. If markets do not recover today, then we are in for some pain during the week.

BUY
HDFCBANK @ 1940-1945 Tgt 2000 SL 1920
PANTALOONR @ 408-409 Tgt 422, 440 SL 404
LUPIN @ 1640-1645 Tgt 1720 SL 1620
JINDALSAW @ 214-216 Tgt 227, 240 SL 211

12-Apr-2010

2010-04-11T20:06:00.000-07:00

Markets are at a fresh 2 year high as both the major indices moved up by 1.35% each as the Q4 corporate results started coming in. The mid-cap side of the market is enthusiastic with a very positive advance decline ratio. All sectors inched up with the exception of Technology. Infrastructure, Realty, Banking, Cement, Financials, Shipping and Telecom were the sectors which saw positive build up. DLF was the biggest Nifty gainer with a 6.87% rise followed by BHEL (6.12%), Hero Honda (5.74%), RCOM (4.74%) and Tata Motors (4.11%). SAIL was the biggest Nifty loser with a close to 7% cut after the announcement of its FPO. The other losers included HUL (3.93%), HCL Tech (3.74%), Hindalco (2.69%), ONGC (1.9%) and Ranbaxy (1.83%).

Infosys comes out with its yearly numbers on Tuesday and in all probability we may witness some positive comments from the management. The IT stocks have already run up significantly to afford another big rally. A correction after positive numbers cannot be ruled out. The global markets are looking good going into the week and Nifty may see some positive momentum. Strong immediate term support is placed at 5290 (low placed on 8th) followed by multiple supports near 5180-5230. Last week’s high of 5400 acts as immediate resistance. We recommend traders to trade in specific stocks with strict stoplosses as the event risks loom large.

05-Apr-10

2010-04-04T20:07:00.000-07:00

It is 8 weeks in a row that both Sensex and Nifty managed to close positive. The market breadth was positive and everything seems to be working in favor. The global clues were positive with all Asian, European and American markets firing on all cylinders. HDFC was the biggest gainer in Nifty followed by DLF, Unitech, Cairn and Sterlite while Hero Honda, Infosys, HCL Tech, Idea and TCS were among the top losers.

The optimism is back in the markets again and greed is taking over slowly. The most heartening part of this rally is that non-performing sectors were kept out for too long. It gives an indication of a sustained rally upwards with stocks and sectors outperforming in turns. We have seen IT stocks correct during the week but Banking and Metals took over and kept the action alive. In all probability we are in for 5600 and higher levels on Nifty with any corrections holding support of 5100-5200. It is time to have a look at the performers from the lagging sectors and bet. Buy specific stocks on every correction and ride the wave.

BUY
CANBK @ CMP Tgt 440, 460 SL 406
CENTURYTEX @ CMP Tgt 542, 590 SL 510
AREVAT&D @ CMP Tgt 338 SL 300
WELGUJ @276-278 Tgt 296 SL 274
BHUSANSTL @ 1740-1745 Tgt 1800 SL 1720
GESHIP @ CMP Tgt 321 SL 286
VOLTAS @ 176-177 Tgt 182, 190 SL 174

29-Mar-2010

2010-03-28T20:04:00.000-07:00

It is 7th consecutive week of gains for the indices and still counting. Both Sensex and Nifty managed to close the week in green amid sluggish market breadth. The buoyancy is brought back into the markets by Pharma stocks which rose sharply during the week. Second rung Pharma stocks were at the thick of the action as most of them rose in double digits over the week. HDFC Bank was the biggest gainer in Nifty followed by Reliance Power, PNB, Sun Pharma, Cairn and Cipla. The losers included Tata Motors, DLF, Suzlon, GAIL, Idea, Unitech and HDFC.

Markets are trading near 2 year highs and are looking good for a sustained rally. The volumes in the markets have improved significantly during the last few months which supporting the rise. The FY is coming to an end and we may see many stock specific movements to jack the NAVs upwards. In all probability we may see markets closing above the 2 year highs this week and we may go into the next year with lots of enthusiasm. Markets have seen the worst in the last 2 years and it is behind us. It is going to be a stock specific market going ahead and there is a lot on table for the stock picker.

BUY
CANBK @ 410-412 Tgt 440, 460 SL 406
CENTURYTEX @ 518-520 Tgt 542, 590 SL 510
AREVAT&D @ 306-308 Tgt 338 SL 294
WELGUJ @ CMP Tgt 296 SL 274
BHUSANSTL @ 1720-1724 Tgt 1800 SL 1700
GESHIP @ 294-296 Tgt 321 SL 286

15-Mar-2010

2010-03-14T20:21:00.000-07:00

Markets, after rallying the entire week after the budget, continued the upward journey but with less steam. The market breadth remained negative as markets witnesses two out of every 3 stocks ending the week with losses. Markets were particularly severe on Sugar counters as they plummeted from the last weeks levels after the govt’s clamp down on the sugar stocks and prices. Markets traded mixed with select stock specific outperformances and all sectors throwing gainers as well as losers. M&M remained the top Nifty gainer with over 6% WoW gain while the other gainers included Ambuja Cement, ABB, ITC, HDFC, TCS and Axis Bank. HUL was the negative surprise of the week with a fall of close to 9%. Suzlon, Unitech, RCom, Tata Motors and Reliance Infra were among the top losers.

Markets look weary as observed in the breadth last week. Support from some index stocks managed the market to stay positive but looking at the way many midcaps saw distribution casts shadow on the short term strength. Markets are trading near crucial juncture as Nifty nearing the major resistance of 5200. It is difficult for it to breach the band of 5200-5250 in the near term going by the global clues. Markets may try to test this resistance and correct sharply. On the downside 4940 remains a major support in the near term.

BUY
CANBK @ 402-405 Tgt 434 SL 398
CENTURYTEX @ 516-518 Tgt 542, 560 SL 510

SELL
VIDEOIND @ 230-232 Tgt 214 SL 236
IFCI @ 52.50-53 Tgt 48.60 SL 54
RELINFRA @ CMP Tgt 940 SL 1020
BHARTIARTL @ 300-302 Tgt 281 SL 306
IBREALEST @ 176-178 Tgt 160 SL 181
JSWSTEEL @ 1200-1205 Tgt 1140 SL 1220

08-Mar-2010

2010-03-07T19:18:00.001-08:00

Markets recovered sharply and traded the entire week with positive bias. The market breadth was extremely positive as both the major indices inched up more than 3% over the week. The midcaps were more active and many midcap stocks rallied as both Nifty junior and CNX midcap improved by close to 6% each. IT stocks showed some fatigue and failed to participate as rupee started appreciating against dollar during the week. Suzlon was the major Nifty gainer with over 12% WoW gain, followed by Tata Motors, JP Associates, Jindal Steel, Tata Power, Unitech, Tata Steel, SAIL, Bharti, DLF and M&M all gained over 5%. BPCL was the major Nifty loser with just over 4% fall. ONGC, HCL Tech and Axis Bank were the only other losers.

The global markets look good going into the next week. We may see Nifty opening with a positive gap but should find resistance at higher levels. 5200-5250 seems like a formidable immediate term resistance and Nifty may take some time to take out this resistance. We see a band of 4940-5250 during the coming week on Nifty. Markets may trade stock specific with laggards catching up.

BUY
SUZLON @ 79-80 Tgt 90 SL 76
KSOILS @ 72.5-73.00 Tgt 76, 80 SL 71.50
TRIVENI @ 124-125 Tgt 132, 140 SL 122
ADANIENT @ CMP Tgt 524, 540 SL 490
BHUSANSTL @ 1740-1750 Tgt 1810 SL 1720
JINDALSAW @ 210-211 Tgt 224 SL 206

SELL
TATAMOTORS @ 800-804 Tg 760 SL 815
ROLTA @ 183-185 Tgt 172 SL 187
HCLTECH @ 364-366 Tgt 352, 340 SL 372
TATAPOWER @ 1340-1345 Tgt 1280 SL 1360

02-Mar-2010

2010-03-01T18:40:00.001-08:00

Markets consolidated throughout the week but broke upside after the announcement of the Union Budget. The global markets remained supportive and almost all sectors recovered as broader indices closed near their highest levels in a month. Hindalco, Maruti, L&T, Reliance Capital, Ranbaxy, SAIL, Idea, Sterlite and ICICI bank were among the biggest Nifty gainers. ITC was the biggest loser as the stock plummeted after the announcement of imposing taxes on tobacco products. BPCL, RCOM and Hindustan Unilever were among the other losers on Nifty.

The external markets are looking good and we may see range bound activity in our markets as we move further. Markets may consolidate as positive news flowing in from across the globe. A close above 4940 is crucial for the markets to continue the upward direction. Much would depend on how the global markets fare in the immediate term. It would be a stock specific market with range bound index activity. The budget brings a host of positive news and hence may limit the downside on markets. Banking, Metals and Infrastructure stocks may fare well during the week.

BUY
HDFCBANK @ 1695-1700 Tgt 1760 SL 1680
SESAGOA @ 378-380 Tgt 404 SL 372
LT @ 1540-1545 Tgt 1620 SL 1520
AXISBANK @ 1120-1122 Tgt 1160, 1200 SL 1105
SIEMENS @ 660-664 Tgt 720 SL 650

22-Feb-2010

2010-02-21T19:04:00.001-08:00

Markets ended the week on mixed note as Sensex managed to close the week in green while Nifty lost nearly half a percentage points week on week. Banking and Technology indices managed to pull through the week with over 1% gain apiece while the mid cap indices lost marginally. It was a week with weak market breadth and high volatility. Pharma, Metals and Technology stocks were among the gainers. Realty, Infrastructure, Sugar, Telecom, Energy and Media stocks lost fair bit of ground. Hindalco, Ranbaxy, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Tata Steel were the top nifty gainers with more than 5% rise each. Bharti was the biggest loser with an 11% cut week on week followed by Unitech, Reliance Infra and DLF, all losing more than 5% over the week.

Most markets reacted adversely after the announcement of discount rate hike by the FOMC but Dow Jones managed to escape losses. There are enough indications that the easy money availability would come to an end sooner than later and Fed’s action last week is a step in that direction. Markets are in dilemma as uncertainty still looms large. Hence it would be a stock specific market till the direction is clear. There were head and shoulder formations observed in many individual stocks traded in F&O Segment. The indications are of a reasonably big correction in next month, strictly going by the charts. However, there is an event risk pending as the budget is going to be presented on 26th of this month. Hence it is advisable to stay away from the markets and do not carry many positions.

SELL
EDUCOMP @ 720-725 Tgt 680 SL 740
IDEA @ 59-59.50 Tgt 54, 52 SL 60
IFCI @ 50-50.50 Tgt 46.00 SL 51
FSL @ 30.2-30.4 Tgt 27.20 SL 31
INDIAINFO @ 114-115 Tgt 107 SL 118
RELCAPITAL @ 760-765 Tgt 720 SL 775
HCC @ 134-135 Tgt 128 SL 137
RELINFRA Below 990 Tgt 940 SL 1020

15-Feb-10

2010-02-14T19:20:00.000-08:00

Markets ended the losing streak and bounced back from the lows of last week amid volatile trading. Both Sensex and Nifty gained more than 2% with all mid cap indices participating. Almost all sectors participated during the last week’s rise as most of them have beaten down to their respective multi month lows within a couple of weeks. Unitech, Ambuja Cement, Hero Honda, Grasim, JP Associates, Infosys and ACC were the major Nifty gainers all gaining over 5% during the week. Tata steel was the major loser with nearly 2% loss.

The global markets are marred by the deepening fears of sovereign defaults as some of the European nations fail to muster enough support on the bailout packages. Though there is consensus to save these nations from going into bankruptcy, there is much haggling going on as to who should be funding. Nifty faces major resistance at 4940 in the short term. Possibilities are open for fall towards 4600 of Nifty fails to sustain the current levels. It will be a stock specific market with range bound index movement. Pick the strong stocks from the mid-caps for big gains.

08-Feb-2010

2010-02-08T04:45:00.000-08:00

Due to unavoidable reasons "Outlook for the Week" couldnt be published this week.

Markets would continue to find resistance at higher levels and drift lower. Stock specific performances would still be visible.

01-Feb-2010

2010-01-31T19:12:00.000-08:00

The week saw stocks tumbling without much support taking clues from global markets. The most disheartening part of this fall is the volumes with which markets fell. The week saw historically high volumes which is a major cause for concern. Both Sensex and Nifty lost 3% apiece. Technology, Metals, Auto, Pharma, Realty stocks were the major losers. Only 5 out of the 50 Nifty stocks ended the week in positive. Tata Motors, M&M, Tata Steel, Hindalco, HCL Tech and Sterlite were major Nifty losers.

Though the overnight announcement of US GDP quarterly numbers (up 5.7%) far above expected levels, it failed to enthuse the markets as the preceding rise already discounted the best. Back home Nifty closed below the crucial support level of 4940. Markets will find resistance near this level and continue to drift downwards. The correction is seen across asset classes worldwide whether it is commodities, equities or bullion. All indications point towards end of the easy liquidity regime, which was the major reason for the escalation in the prices of risky assets. And without much support from the fundamentals, markets may lose fair bit even with small selling. One should be a seller in the markets on weak counters. Stock specific action would still be visible. Indian Bank, Rolta, Bank of Baroda, Allahabad Bank, Triveni Engg are some of the stocks which still look good and buying may be contemplated at dips.

SELL
WIPRO @ CMP Tgt 620, 585 SL 672
IDEA @ 59-60 Tgt 52 SL 62
LT @ 1440-1450 Tgt 1400, 1360 SL 1470
STER @ CMP Tgt 700 SL 780
INDIAINFO @ 120-122 Tgt 100 SL 126
RELCAPITAL @ CMP Tgt 720 SL 830

25-Jan-2010

2010-01-24T19:15:00.000-08:00

It was one of the worst weeks we’ve seen in the recent past. The week started on a positive note despite weak global clues but couldn’t sustain the rise and markets started falling with heavy volumes. It all started with the Chinese curbs on liquidity which took its toll on the markets across the globe whether they are equities, commodities or currencies. It was a global crack down triggered by fears of unwinding of stimuli. The market breadth was extremely negative and almost all sectors lost ground. Pharma, Metals, Technology, Cement, Infra and Realty stocks were the biggest losers. Idea, HCL Tech, Maruti, Bharti, Hero Honda, BHEL and HUL were the only Nifty stocks which survived the wrath of the markets. Suzlon, L&T, Unitech and JP Associates were the Nifty stocks which lost more than 10% during the week.

The markets don’t look too good going into the next week. The global markets are trading weak and in all probability we may expect an opening below 5000 on Nifty. 4940 on Nifty is a crucial support in the immediate term. A close below this support is crucial for the markets to continue the uptrend. 5200 remains the crucial resistance. We see markets trading with weak bias with stock specific performances if Nifty manages a close below 4940. The results season is coming to an end and the rumour mills will be busy predicting the budget sops but the short term direction will depend on the external markets rather than on their own fundamentals. Despite weak markets there are certain set of stocks which look resilient and may throw some surprises on the upside like Chambal Fertilizers, BRFL, Triveni Eng, BEML, Petronet, Titan, Bank of India etc.. Avoid short positions in these stocks.

SELL
ABB @ 820-822 Tgt 780 SL 835
RELCAPITAL @ 860-865 Tgt 800 SL 880
LT @ 1510-1520 Tgt 1400 SL 1540
MPHASIS @ 700-705 Tgt 664 SL 713
ORIENTBANK @ 250-252 Tgt 238, 224 SL 260
JINDALSTEL @ 680-682 Tgt 660, 640 SL 690

18-Jan-2010

2010-01-17T19:06:00.000-08:00

The week belonged to technology and it was technology which saved the markets this week. The IT index moved by as much as 9% lead by TCS which gained more than 13% followed by Wipro (+9.8%) and Infosys (+8%). The results from the IT biggies and the guidance re-instated the faith in the sector which triggered major buying interest in the technology stocks. Some of the midcap stocks saw action and it was a week of stock specific performances. The major benchmarks Sensex and Nifty just managed to close in positive as the gains provided by technology were offset by Banking, Metals and FMCG. SBI, Jindal Steel, Suzlon, ICICI Bank, Hindalco, Sterlite, HUL and Reliance Infra were among the biggest losers which capped the upside in Nifty. Cement stocks ACC, Ambuja Cement and Grasim, ABB, Axis Bank, Rcom and Siemens were among the biggest gainers apart from the Technology pack.

The IIP numbers indicate strong growth YoY which would limit the downside going ahead unless something very bad happens with the overall global economy. Markets may trade volatile with positive bias as results continue to drive the markets. Market players keep their fingers crossed for the presentation of Railway budget once the results season gets over. Markets may open with downside gap on Monday morning due to weak global cues but that should be treated as a buying opportunity in specific stocks. Nifty will find support below 5200 and continue to march ahead. One should have an overall day close stoploss below 4940 and continue to trade long on dips. Be stock specific and maintain adequate stoplosses.

BUY
MTNL @ 86-87 Tgt 92 SL 84
KSOILS @ 74-74.50 Tgt 81, 90 SL 72
ONGC @ 1190-1200 Tgt 1360 SL 1150
BHARATFORG @ 288-290 Tgt 310 SL 280
HDIL @ 370-372 Tgt 400 SL 364
GESHIP @ 308-310 Tgt 360 SL 295
PANTALOONR @ 410-412 Tgt 440 SL 400

SELL
ABB @ 860-863 Tgt 825 SL 875
RELCAPITAL @ 905-910 Tgt 860 SL 920
PRAJIND @ 109-110 Tgt 100 SL 114

11-Jan-2010

2010-01-10T18:36:00.001-08:00

Markets traded the week with positive bias. Though the indices did not reflect the positivism, as both Sensex and Nifty closed the week with partial gains, the sentiment remained buoyant in terms of sentiment. Midcaps were the biggest gainers and the market breadth remained extremely positive. Energy, Metals, Cement, Shipping, Realty, Infrastructure, Sugar and Fertilizer stocks were among the top gainers while Technology stocks witnessed some correction. Grasim, Siemens, Cairn, DLF, Hindalco, Tata Power and M&M were the top Nifty gainers while Maruti, TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys and Hero Honda were the top losers.

Though markets looked particularly strong in terms of market breadth we feel that there is more reason to worry in the immediate term. Already sectors such as Technology and Automobiles started to show fatigue and are trading weak. Infosys third quarter result is the next big event that markets would look forward to in the coming week which may set the tone for the immediate direction of the markets. Nifty is trading above its crucial resistance level of 5200 and will in all probability set for creating higher levels. A close below 4940 should bring in weakness. Any weakness towards 5000 is a buying opportunity with a day close protection below 4940. It is interesting to see which sectors take the baton to take the markets forward. We expect Reliance and ONGC to lead the markets from here on as the underperformance is continuing for quite a long time. The time is ripe for them to start participating in the rally. Be cautious and trade with Stoplosses.

BUY
POLARIS @ 178-180 Tgt 200 SL 170
KSOILS @ 70-71 Tgt 81, 90 SL 67.50
ONGC @ 1190-1200 Tgt 1360 SL 1150
BHARATFORG @ 278-280 Tgt 310 SL 270
HINDALCO @ 170-172 Tgt 200 SL 162

SELL
CROMPGREAV @ 423-426 Tgt 400 SL 430
DCHL @ 167-168 Tgt 155 SL 170
LT @ 1700-1710 Tgt 1620 SL 1725
GTOFFSHORE @ 482-484 Tgt 440 SL 492
EDUCOMP @ 785-790 Tgt 740 SL 800

04-Jan-2010

2010-01-03T18:40:00.000-08:00

It was a short week with just 3 trading days but markets managed to break the previous highs and create a fresh one and half year high. Support came from Metals, Cement, Capital Goods and Energy sectors while price moderation was visible in Pharma and Banking stocks. Reliance Power, Ambuja Cements, BPCL and NTPC were the top Nifty gainers. Sun Pharma, Jindal Steel, Cipla and DLF were the top losers.

Nifty closed above the crucial resistance of 5200 this week, after failing to breach this level on multiple occasions during the last 3 months. If this level holds we may, in all probability, see Nifty rallying towards 5600. A close below 4940 substantially negates the chances of this upmove. Any dip towards 5000 should be treated as a buying opportunity to accumulate stocks with a day close protection below 4940. The third quarter results should start kicking in from next week and these numbers should give the hint of the overall economic picture. And then we have budget expectations which would keep the markets very active for another month. The overall direction is still dependent on how the global economy takes shape. The pace of rise in all asset classes during the last one year still remains a cause of concern going ahead. The automobile sales data released during the weekend points to month on month decline which is a negative signal. But the factor which remains in favor of buyers is the TREND. The trend is certainly up and hence contemplating a fall may be a risky proposition at this point of time. Trade long with strict stoplosses.

BUY
POLARIS @ 180-182 Tgt 200 SL 176
DIVISLAB @ 668-670 Tgt 720 SL 660
KFA @ CMP Tgt 72, 80 SL 60
OFSS @ 2300-2305 Tgt 2400 SL 2240
BAJAJ-AUTO @ 1740-1750 Tgt 1820 SL 1720
BHARATFORG @ 268-270 Tgt 284, 310 SL 256
HINDALCO @ 158-160 Tgt 173, 200 SL 154
CENTURYTEX @ 518-520 Tgt 560 SL 510

29-Dec-09

2009-12-28T19:38:00.001-08:00

Strong external markets and better than expected economic data helped markets stage a strong recovery after previous week’s fall. Both Sensex and Nifty managed to inch up close to 4% during the week. The market breadth was extremely heartening as 10 stocks rose for each falling stock. Almost all sectors participated except pharma. Banking and Metals were among the biggest gainers. SAIL, NTPC, Hindalco, Tata Steel, Suzlon, Reliance Infra, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors and Reliance were among the top gainers in Nifty.

Nifty is trading at a crucial juncture at this point in time. 5150-5200 is a crucial resistance and Nifty is placed at a fresh one and a half year high. If it manages to breach 5200, we may see the rally extending to 5600. We may see a buoyant market in terms of stock specific action and we recommend short term traders to trade long for immediate gains. Supports are placed at 5070 and 5000. The chances of this impending rise could be negated only if it manages a close below 5000. The exuberance must reach to irrational levels for the markets to subside from here. Buy for immediate term with adequate stoplosses.

BUY
CROMPGREAV @ 418-420 Tgt 444 SL 410
SESAGOA @ 386-388 Tgt 425 SL 376
PANTALOONR @ 364-366 Tgt 400 SL 358
BHUSANSTL @ 1410-1420 Tgt 1600 SL 1370
OPTOCIRCUI @ 224-226 Tgt 260 SL 220
HINDZINC @ 1190-1200 Tgt 1260, 1400 SL 1170
MPHASIS @ 720-725 Tgt 760 SL 710

21-Dec-09

2009-12-20T19:58:00.001-08:00

Markets were trading with negative bias throughout the week and corrected sharply after consolidating in narrow range last week. The market breadth was negative and the fall was more or less across the board. Pharma, Technology and Cement were the sectors which stood out for their outperformance. Ranbaxy, ACC, HCL Tech, Wipro, Cipla, Sun Pharma and Infosys were among the top gainers while Unitech, Axis Bank, IDFC, HDFC Bank, RCom and DLF for the top losers in Nifty.

The global cues are mixed we may witness some range bound activity back home. Nifty closed below 5000 once gain after repeated attempts to breach 5200 failed during the past one month. Immediate term resistance on Nifty remains at 5070 and a strong short term resistance remains above 5150. Supports exist at 4940 and further at 4800. Long positions must be exited if it manages a close below 4940. Markets may trade stock specific and hence short term trading is recommended with adequate stoplosses. Metals look particularly strong and we expect weakness in Banking stocks.

BUY
HINDALCO @ 140-142 Tgt 152, 160 SL 136
SESAGOA @ 354-356 Tgt 400 SL 344
PANTALOONR 358-360 Tgt 400 SL 350
OPTOCIRCUI @ 218-220 Tgt 232, 260 SL 208
SAIL @ 208-210 Tgt 234 SL 204

SELL
TATACOMM @ 340-342 Tgt 320 SL 348
HDFC @ 2600-2610 Tgt 2480 SL 2640
ANDHRABANK @ 104-105 Tgt 99, 92 SL 107
EDUCOMP @ 720-724 Tgt 680, 620 SL 740
BANKINDIA @ 364-365 Tgt 348 SL 372

07-Dec-09

2009-12-06T09:50:00.000-08:00

Markets staged a strong bounce back after the last week’s weakness. The news from Dubai sunk in and Nifty almost touched the recent high and settled somewhere close to the one and a half year highs. All sectors participated in the rally. Pharma and Metal stocks were amongst the biggest gainers. Realty stocks rebounded sharply after collapsing after the news of Dubai financial crisis. Ranbaxy and Cipla both moved up more than 10% during the week while Tata Motors, Hindalco, Idea, SAIL and Unitech were the other Nifty stocks which moved up more than 10% week on week. HUL, Hero Honda and BHEL were the only losers in Nifty.

Markets are looking good for medium term with stock specific performances. Metals, Pharma, Auto and Banking sectors look good going ahead. Nifty faces strong resistance at 5200, which looks difficult to breach in the immediate term. Breach of 5200 may see it climbing upto 5500 in the short term. On the downside strong support exists at 4800. We may see consolidation in the range of 4800-5200 before markets take any direction. It is advisable to trade stock specific with adequate protection.

30-Nov-09

2009-11-29T20:00:00.001-08:00

Markets started trading the week on a positive note and were in positive territory for the first half of the week and then news of Dubai property and realty firms struggling to pay back their debt and are looking for restructuring their loans once again gripped the markets. Markets toppled during the latter half of the week before recovering smartly during the fag end. Both Sensex and Nifty lost more than 2% week on week with all the sectoral indices closing the week with losses. The market breadth was negative but yet there were some stock specific performances. BPCL was the biggest Nifty gainer with nearly 12% wow gain while the other gainers included Ranbaxy, GAIL, Hero Honda, Cipla. IDFC, JP Associates, Siemens and Jindal Steel were among the biggest Nifty losers.

The cues going into the week are positive as global markets stage strong recovery after the fall. The Dubai tumors look like beginning to fade but we expect the cracks would continue to haunt the markets going forward. The coming week’s market behavior would determine the medium term direction of the markets. If the deep financial crisis could be averted by synchronized collective stimuli from major nations, we feel this crisis should well be prevented from escalating. If markets succeed in touching the lows of Friday, then we might have some more pain left in the system. One must remain cautious for this week and traders must maintain strict stoplosses.

BUY
RANBAXY @ 438-440 Tgt 460 SL 432
GVKPIL @ 50-50.25 Tgt 52.50, 58 SL 49
GSPL @ 94-94.25 Tgt 100 SL 92
ORCHIDCHEM @ 178-180 Tgt 200 SL 172

SELL
IDFC @ 162-163 Tgt 156, 151 SL 166

23-Nov-09

2009-11-22T19:25:00.001-08:00

Markets were trading undecided for the initial part of the week but move up on the last session to close the week with a gain of over 1% on both the Sensex and Nifty. While technology stocks corrected after witnessing steady rallies, Shipping and Cement stocks showed signs of reversal after staying low for many a month. Metals, Auto and Banking saw good gains while other sectors traded mixed for the week. Suzlon, Tata Steel, SAIL, Reliance Capital and Hero Honda were the major Nifty gainers with over 5% WoW rise while Reliance Infra, Bharti and HCL Tech were the major losers.

Markets are likely to trade stable with positive bias going forward. Any correction should be seen as more of a buying opportunity than a sign of reversal. Nifty may find support at 5000 and we may see 5200 being tested once again this week. We expect steel and banking stocks to witness rally in the coming weeks. Technology may remain sluggish while steel and banking may witness further upside. Trade stock specific and avoid short positions for the time being.

BUY
BEL @ CMP Tgt 1680 SL 1560
AUROPHARMA @ 776-780 Tgt 840 SL 760
TATASTEEL @ CMP Tgt 585 SL 540
DENABANK @ 79.5-80 Tgt 88 SL 76

16-Nov-09

2009-11-19T04:44:00.000-08:00

Markets continue to move up in line with positive global markets and strong fundamental data emanating domestically. The IIP numbers show strong demand growth. The market breadth was extremely positive for second week in a row. Almost all sectors participated in the rally. HCL Tech, SAIL, IDFC, Reliance, Tata Motors, TCS, ICICI Bank, ZEE, Axis Bank, Siemens, Infosys, Jindal Steel, Wipro, Reliance Infra, M&M, Grasim, Reliance Capital and HDFC Bank were among the top gainers, all gaining more than 5% over the week.

Markets continue to strengthen as fears of the recession alleviate with every passing day. The global economy seems stabilizing. While the data across the globe suggest that the worst is behind us, it is amply clear that the next growth engines for the global economy are China and India. The possibilities of a fresh peak remain open from here. On the down side, we may see support coming in from funds, market participants and retail investors at every decline. Corrections should be utilized to buy into the strong momentum stocks. Nifty may find support below 4800 and may try to make an attempt to reach 5200 once again. Avoid carrying short positions.

BUY
BEL @ 1580-1590 Tgt 1680 SL 1560
ZEEL @ 253-255 Tgt 282 SL 248
TATATEA @ 895-900 Tgt 945 SL 880
HINDZINC @ 900-905 Tgt 960 SL 890
NATIONALUM @ 376-380 Tgt 404 SL 365
AUROPHARMA @ 755-760 Tgt 840 SL 730

SELL
RELCAPITAL @ 845-850 Tgt 800 SL 870

09-Nov-2009

2009-11-08T19:08:00.000-08:00

Markets recovered from the lows taking cues from the global markets and on back of extremely encouraging auto sales and cement dispatch numbers. After falling sharply at the beginning of the week, markets recovered sharply to end the week with close to 1.8% gain on Nifty. The market breadth was positive with 4 stocks advancing for each losing stock. Bharti, ICICI Bank, Ranbaxy, GAIL, Unitech, Tata Steel, Zee and M&M were the prominent Nifty gainers while Ambuja Cement, Tata Power, ACC, HUL and Idea figured among the major losers in Nifty.

The results season is over and the overall direction of the markets would depend on the sentiment from global financial markets. Markets may trade volatile during the coming week finding resistance between 4850-4900 and support between 4500-4550. We expect the action to remain stock specific and hence it is recommended to resort to stock specific trades on either side.

BUY
WIPRO @ 590-592 Tgt 620 SL 580
CROMPGREAV @ 376-378 Tgt 400 SL 370
MCDOWELL-N @ 1055-1060 Tgt 1120 SL 1030
TATAMOTORS @ 558-560 Tgt 594 SL 550

SELL
BHARTIARTL @ 323-325 Tgt 300 SL 330
GMRINFRA @ 66-67 Tgt 63 SL 68
M&M @ 992-995 Tgt 940 SL 1020

03-Nov-09

2009-11-02T19:27:00.000-08:00

Both Sensex and Nifty lost more than 5% over the week amid extremely negative market breadth. Almost all sectors witnessed profit taking without any exception. Only some of the IT and Pharma stocks showed some resilience. Dr Reddy, Ranbaxy, Tata Motors, Wipro, Sun Pharma, Zee and Grasim were the only stocks which managed to escape the week without losses. The prominent losers were RCOM, Suzlon, DLF, Unitech, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infra, Hindalco, Reliance Power, ICICI Bank, JP Associates, Idea, Bharti, Siemens, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and SAIL all of which lost more than 10% over the week.

As predicted last week, markets witnessed correction throughout the week amid volatile global markets. The correction may extend further as markets face resistance at every rise. 4500/4400 on Nifty is still a possibility but we may see a bounce back before that happening. 4850-4900 is a strong resistance for immediate term and we may see Nifty honoring this resistance. However, we may witness stock specific action going forward. Sell weaker sectors/stocks on rises and buy stronger ones on dips. Falls like these give opportunities to buy strong medium term stocks. Following are some of these stocks.

BUY
INDIANB @ 148-150 Tgt 220 SL 135
SUNPHARMA @ 1300-1320 Tgt 1600 SL 1220
POLARIS @ 150-152 Tgt 200 SL 140
OFSS @ 2050-2070 Tgt 2600 SL 1960

26-Oct-09

2009-10-25T20:33:00.000-07:00

Markets slipped from nearly one and a half year highs amid extremely negative market breadth. Both Sensex and Nifty lost close to 3% as mid caps and all sectoral indices, with the exception of Technology and metals, lost ground. Heavy weights Reliance, Grasim and L&T broke down sharply and figured among the biggest losers in Nifty. There were losers in almost all sectors except some outperformers from Metals and Technology. HCL Tech, Nalco, Hindalco, TCS, ITC, Infosys and Wipro were among the major gainers while Grasim, Reliance, Reliance Capital, L&T, Tata Steel, Suzlon, Unitech and Reliance Infra were the major losers.

During the last few months, markets didn’t look as fluid as they are looking at this point of time. There are certainly reasons for this.
a. The market breadth during the last week was extremely negative.
b. There were some significant breakdowns in some of the heavy weights which make the markets not as lucrative as they looked for last few months. Heavy weights like Reliance, L&T, Grasim and Bharti have seen strong breakouts on the downside which doesn’t augur well for the markets. Charts signal that medium term peaks are made in these stocks and further downside looks imminent though we may see intermittent bounce backs. Any rise in these stocks is a selling opportunity and hence we recommend traders to avoid.
c. Nearly one fifth of the stocks traded in the F&O segment are trading near their respective lows for the month.
If Nifty were to breach 4900 decisively, then we may see sharp downside towards 4400, a fall which is long overdue. Exit long positions if Nifty closes below 4900 and look for opportunities to create shorts.

SELL
JPHYDRO @ 75-76 Tgt 70 SL 76.60
SESAGOA @ 330-333 Tgt 300, 284 SL 340
RELCAPITAL @ 890-900 Tgt 800 SL 920
FINANTECH @ 1300-1310 Tgt 1200 SL 1330
SUZLON @ 86-86.50 Tgt 80, 72 SL 88
HCLTECH @ 330-333 Tgt 300 SL 340
RELMEDIA @ 335-337 Tgt 310 SL 345

20-Oct-2009

2009-10-19T20:29:00.001-07:00

Markets continued the uptrend and both Sensex and Nifty moved up close to 4% during the week. It was a perfect rally before Diwali with fireworks from all sectors. The second quarter results were heartening and so far there is no big disappointment. The market breadth was extremely positive and provides inkling about the future. SBI, Jindal Steel, Cairn, DLF, Tata Power, SAIL and TCS were among the top gainers while Ambuja Cement, BPCL, RCOM and Bharti remained top losers.

The global clues are strong and we may expect a strong opening here back home. We may see Nifty finding resistance at 5200 and retrace for the day. If we look at the medium term, as long as it remains above 4900, the possibilities of a fresh peak beyond 6000 are open. It requires a close below 4860 to put an end to this stupendous rally. Now the baton passes on to Reliance and ONGC to lead the rally from here on. Accumulate these stocks for surprising gains.

The following are the positional calls for the coming couple of months.

BUY
ESSAROIL @ CMP Tgt 200 SL 160
ONGC @ CMP Tgt 1560 SL 1140
RELIANCE @ CMP Tgt 2700 SL 2120
IVRCLINFRA @ 395-400 Tgt 500 SL 380

05-Oct-09

2009-10-04T20:34:00.000-07:00

Markets continued the uptrend both Sensex and Nifty moved up more than two and a half percentage points during the week. It was a shortened week lasting just 3 trading days. Technology, private sector banks, metals and telecom were among the sectors which gained the most. Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, TCS, Wipro, Rcom and Bharti were the top nifty gainers. Grasim, BPCL, Dr Reddy and Unitech were among the biggest losers.

The global cues are anything but strong going into the next week. We may see markets open with a downward gap as suggested by SGX nifty. Supports for Nifty exist at 5000 and further at 4920. We may see markets finding support below 5000 and continue the trend. The trend is intact as long as Nifty trades above 4860. We expect Reliance to lead the next leg of rally and support may come from Cement, Infrastructure, Realty and other mid-caps. Caution is advised if Nifty closes below 5000.

BUY
ABAN @ 1620-1625 Tgt 1900 SL 1600
DABUR @ 140-141 Tgt 148 SL 137
GAIL @ 358-360 Tgt 380 SL 354
ESSAROIL @ 155-156 Tgt 166, 172 SL 150
TATACHEM @ 274-276 Tgt 300 SL 268

SELL
IDEA @ 74-74.50 Tgt 71, 68.50 SL 75.50
HDFC @ 2700-2710 Tgt 2590 SL 2740
FINANTECH @ 1400-1410 Tgt 1320 SL 1430
RNRL @ 88-88.50 Tgt 84, 78 SL 89.50
TV-18 @ 100-102 Tgt 88, 82 SL 105

22-Sep-2009

2009-09-21T20:42:00.000-07:00

Markets continued the uptrend and both Sensex and Nifty gained close to 3%. It was a commendable performance given the fact that the global markets and the overall sentiment were not very encouraging for most part of the week. More over the market breadth looked further better with 6 out of every 10 stocks traded in the F&O segment gaining more than 5% over the week. Banking stocks started from where they left last week and continued to rally. Metals, Auto, Infrastructure, Technology, Capital Goods and Pharma stocks were among the major gainers. It was a week where even laggards like Telecom, Shipping, Hotels and Aviation participated. The top Nifty gainers were

Markets are far stronger than what they looked like on the face of it. The rally has not seen participation from the heavy weights like Reliance, ONGC, NTPC, Bharti etc. One could imagine what it could have been if only these biggies participated. There is more steam left in the markets. It reminds of a typical secular bull run where all sectors participate in turns. It was banking which lead the rally during the past couple of weeks and now it is the turn of Infrastructure and realty. We expect the laggards to take the lead and keep the markets buoyant from here. We’ve already seen a hint of that happening on Friday, when ADAG group stocks started moving up. We may not see a very big correction in the indices atleast. Reliance breaching 2200 and we may see markets entering the next leg which may take Nifty towards 5600. Stay Long.

BUY
LITL @ 458-460 Tgt 500 SL 440
WIPRO @ 564-566 Tgt 584, 600 SL 555
HDIL @ CMP Tgt 360 SL 310
LICHSGFIN @ 750-752 Tgt 800 SL 740
IVRCLINFRA @ 372-374 Tgt 400 SL 366
UNITECH @ 110-111 Tgt 120, 132 SL 106

SELL
BANKINDIA @ 403-406 Tgt 380 SL 412
ORIENTBANK @ 233-234 Tgt 220 SL 240

14-Sep-2009

2009-09-13T21:14:00.000-07:00

Markets made a strong bounce back after remaining range bound the previous week. Both Sensex and Nifty gained more than 3%. Banking Index contributed to the rises by rising more than 6% week on week. Metals and Pharma were the other sectors which gained the most. It was not a very good week for Technology, FMCG, Auto, Cement and Power. Erstwhile outperforming Sugar sector lost some momentum and ended the week with losses. Reliance rose nearly 8% during the week and other biggest gainers were Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Sterlite, Tata Steel, SBI and Tata Motors. The major Nifty losers were REC, HUL, Maruti, M&M, Suzlon and DLF. All in all it was a good week for stock specific traders.

Markets refuse to come down irrespective of whatever fundamentals. The entire rally is driven by liquidity and every rise is being treated with caution. As long as caution is in the air, we don’t expect the markets to correct substantially. Hence one must trade long with STRICT STOP LOSSES. Buy on sharp corrections with an overall stop of 4460 on Nifty. 4600 remains a strong support in the short term and the next resistance comes only at 5000. Since most of the asset classes across the globe are moving in tandem, expect our markets to follow the global trend. One must not commit long term funds in the markets since it would be difficult to contain the fall when it really happens. Wait for the confirmation of reversal to build short positions.

Buy
LITL @ 410-412 Tgt 444, 500 SL 390
POWERGRID @ 107 Tgt 111, 115 SL 105
YESBANK @ 170-172 Tgt 182, 190 SL 168
ADLABSFILM @ 340-342 Tgt 374, 410 SL 334
HDIL @ 298-300 Tgt 360 SL 288
ABAN @ 1460-1470 Tgt 1900 SL 1400
UNITECH @ 103-104 Tgt 120, 132 SL 97

07-Sep-2009

2009-09-06T20:40:00.000-07:00

After losing sharply for the first 4 days of the week, markets reversed sharply to negate most of the losses and closed the week with slender losses. Both Sensex and Nifty lost more than 1% week on week. PSU oil marketing companies were in the lime light along with other PSU stocks. RCom, Maruti, Unitech, Hero Honda, Tata Motors and HUL were the other Nifty gainers (5%+). Bharti, Dr Reddy, BHEL, Reliance and Sterlite were among the major losers.

The global cues are positive and hence we may see a strong opening here. 4750-4760 on Nifty acts as a strong resistance. Multiple supports are identified between 4560-4600. Markets may trade range bound with stock specific rallies. A close above this level may turn the things for a rally towards 5000. Trade stock specific with adequate stop losses.

BUY
LITL @ 408-410 Tgt 444, 500 SL 390
ICSA @ CMP Tgt 224, 260 SL 200
YESBANK @ 167-168 Tgt 182 SL 162
ADLABSFILM @ CMP Tgt 374, 410 SL 340
HDIL @ 294-295 Tgt 322 SL 288

24-Aug-2009

2009-08-23T20:27:00.001-07:00

Markets opened the week on a weak note and traded weak for the first half but saw a late recovery to close with week on week gains. Both Sensex and Nifty gained just over a percentage points over the week. All the major indices were marginally in red week over week. All sectors witnessed mixed action. Cement, banking and metals were the sectors, which saw selling pressure. Ranbaxy, HDFC, BHEL, NALCO and ABB were the top Nifty gainers while Cipla, Unitech, Reliance Infra, Tata Motors, ACC, Reliance Capital and Sterlite were the major losers.

The cues going into the next week are positive. US and European markets witnessed a rally on Friday and Asian markets are trading strong this morning. Nifty faces huge resistance in the zone of 4600-4620 in the immediate term. We expect Nifty to honor this resistance and retrace. Supports are identified at 4450 and further at 4360. A close above 4600 is crucial for this rally to sustain. It is expiry week and we may see the volatility increase. The global markets need to be watched closely since all asset classes are moving in tandem globally irrespective of broader fundamentals. For the time being, trade stock specific with adequate stoplosses.

BUY
LITL @ 408-410 Tgt 440, SL 400
ABAN @ 1155-1160 Tgt 1220, 1300 SL 1120
YESBANK @ 168-170 Tgt 182, 190 SL 164
IVRCLINFRA @ 333-336 Tgt 380 SL 325
VOLTAS @ CMP Tgt 160 SL 137

2009-08-16T20:51:00.000-07:00

Markets staged a strong bounce back after initial weakness and ended the week with good gains. The market breadth was positive and all mid-cap and sectoral indices were up more than 2% WoW. Technology, Pharma, Oil & Gas and Metals were sectors which were in lime light. Ranbaxy, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Unitech, DLF and GAIL were the top nifty gainers while M&M, HUL, ACC and Ambuja Cements figured among the top losers.
The global markets are trading weak this morning and the sentiment going into the week is negative. We may see a strong down ward movement and a consolidation with a downward bias going forward. 4600 is a strong resistance and hence only a close above this level could turn things for good. 4400-4420 is a strong short term support zone. A move below this level could take the markets down sharply towards 4000. Trade stock specific with strict stoplosses.

BUY
GAIL @ 334-335 Tgt 360 SL 328
EKC @ 188-190 Tgt 212 SL 180
TATACHEM @ 250-252 Tgt 271, 292 SL 244

SELL
IDEA @ 78-79 Tgt 76, 72.5 SL 81
HINDUNILVR @ 260-262 Tgt 249, 242 SL 266
TATACOMM @ CMP Tgt 478, 460 SL 515
ASHOKLEY @ 37-37.20 Tgt 34.5, 32 SL 38
YESBANK @ 160-161 Tgt 151 SL 164

10-Aug-2009

2009-08-09T20:38:00.000-07:00

Sensex and Nifty both lost by more than 3% WoW due to heavy selling pressure during the later half of the week. The fall was lead by Chinese markets, which were showing glimpse of collapse and the sentiment percolated to some of the other markets. However, positive non-farm payroll data from US pushed the markets higher on Friday and the sentiment going into the next week is positive.

The global cues are positive and we may see positivism at the opening. Weak monsoon on the fundamental front is a big worry and hence that may weigh high on Indian equities in the medium term. 4600 is a big resistance for nifty in the immediate term and it finds support at 4420. One has to take stock specific exposure and trade with strict stoplosses.

BUY
LICHSGFIN @ CMP Tgt 660 SL 610
HINDZINC @ 735-740 Tgt 765, 800 SL 720
PATNI @ 342-345 Tgt 362 SL 338
LITL @ 400-402 Tgt 422, 441 SL 390

03-Aug-2009

2009-08-02T20:30:00.000-07:00

Sensex and Nifty gained 1.9% and 1.5% respectively lead by technology and mid-cap stocks. The market breadth was positive with average gain of close to 3% on F&O segment. The rally was driven by better than expected corporate earnings, strong global markets and rallies in commodities and other asset classes.

The sentiment is clearly bullish but we may see stock specific directional movement going forward. It is a buy on dips markets with a day close stop loss on Nifty below 4400. Support and Resistances on Nifty exist at 4540 and 4800. Nifty may take support below 4600 and make an attempt towards 4800 in the coming week. The situation on the fundamental front does not look too rosy as it is made out to be but as long as the markets are trending, let us be with the markets. It is a traders’ market and hence positions should be initiated with trading perspective with strict target objectives and stop losses.

BUY
BANKBARODA @ 430-432 Tgt 450 SL 425
NATIONALUM @ CMP Tgt 360 SL 290
PUNJLLOYD @ 240-242 Tgt 275 SL 236
CANBK @ 282-284 Tgt 320 SL 275
FINANTECH @ 1400-1410 Tgt 1600 SL 1370
APIL @ 520-525 Tgt 590 SL 510

13-July-2009

2009-07-12T20:32:00.000-07:00

Markets tanked after the announcement of the Budget. There was nothing much that can be done since the FM was struck between the devil and the deep blue sea. When markets build optimism based on illusions and not on reality, such reactions are bound to happen. Both sensex and nifty lost close to 10% week on week as almost every sector gave in to the selling pressure. ITC, Hero Honda, Ambuja Cement were among the top Nifty gainers while Suzlon, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infra, Unitech, DLF, ICICI Bank, R Com, Tata Steel, L&T, Siemens, Axis Bank, R Power and SBI lost anywhere between 15-30% week on week.

The fundamentals of the economy are certainly looking bleak. For me the major problems are unemployment, the security threat from our neighbours and the effect of global recession on India. There are talks of green shoots sprouting up all around but we are no way near to a ‘U’ shaped recovery. The rises that we’ve seen do not support any recovery theory. There are already rumours in the air that a downgrade on India is likely in the immediate future. Every positive news must be sold into and we do not expect the markets to stage a very strong recovery from these levels. The momentum would remain on the downside in the short to medium term. Our markets may open with a gap down going by the global cues but we may see recovery towards 4000. On the upside 4020 is a strong resistance and any move above 4000-4200 should be utilized to create medium term short positions. Sell on rises and maintain short positions. Avoid any long positions. Sell not for today, always sell for tomorrow.

Dated 6th June, 2009

2009-07-05T20:08:00.000-07:00

Markets were trading cautious throughout the week and ended the week with slender gains. Both Sensex and Nifty gained over a percentage points while Bank Nifty closed up with more than 2% week on week gains. Tata Steel, ONGC, GAIL and BPCL were the prominent gainers in Nifty and Zee, Axis Bank, Sail, HDFC, PNB and M&M were other gainers. Suzlon and Tata Motors were among the worst performers with more than 10% erosion week on week. Rcom, ACC and Hindalco were among the other losers.

Markets took some positives from the Railway budget and moved higher on the last trading day of the week. The big event is due on Monday - The Union Budget. The budget this year is a very crucial event since this is the first budget of the UPA’s second term and would provide us the broad intent on policy and direction. One must be cautious and avoid trading just before the budget. The indications so far point towards a clear long-term vision by looking at the measures taken on educational reforms and the intention to provide national ID cards. The big question still is to see whether the reforms process could continue with out much tinkering with the basic tax structure in the wake of falling revenues due to global economic meltdown and the indications of scanty rainfall for this Kharif season. If one excludes the first couple of days of this week, the overall direction of the equity markets would still be dictated by the global factors. We expect to see some stock/sector specific rallies going forward but the overall direction would remain bearish.

Dated 22nd June, 2009

2009-06-21T21:06:00.000-07:00

Sensex ended its relentless rally and closed in the red after 14 weeks of WoW gains. Sensex lost 4.7% while Nifty went down by 5.9%. The mid cap indices moved lower in line with the broader markets. Market breadth was negative for almost the entire week. Banking stocks were among the gainers while all other sectors corrected. PNB, Reliance Infra, Cipla and SBI were the top nifty gainers. Reliance was the most prominent loser with a fall of more than 13%. Sterlite, Hindalco, ACC, NTPC, SAIL and ONGC were the other Nifty stocks, which lost more than 10%.

The weakness is visible across all sectors. The global cues suggest a strong opening here in our markets but the rises from here are not likely to sustain. 4400 on Nifty acts as a stiff resistance for immediate term while support exists at 4200. It may try to trade and consolidate in this band for a couple of days before breaking out. Long positions must be avoided at any juncture and stock specific short positions are recommended with strict stop losses. Stocks like Union Bank, Central Bank, Mphasis, LIC Housing Finance and sugar stocks Renuka, Bajaj Hindustan are looking strong. Hence avoid these counters and longs can be contemplated with a strict short term view in these stocks. Cement, Metals and Infra stocks show weakness. One should utilize rises to create short positions in these counters with predefined stoplosses. Sell Lupin, Sterlite, ACC, Rajesh Exports, FSL, Wockhardt and Karnataka Bank for immediate gains.

Dated 25th May, 2009

2009-05-24T21:26:00.001-07:00

Markets opened with circuits up after the unexpected outcome of the elections. Sensex and Nifty moved up 14.08 and 15.44% respectively. Almost everything moved up with the exception of front rung IT stocks. Mid-cap stocks moved up very sharply and half the stocks traded in f&o segment went up by more than 25%. Banking Index gained by one fourth too.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to fathom the reasons for a sustained rally in global financial markets. The momentum is up and hence it is risky to expect the markets to fall immediately. We might see a correction as sharp as the rally when the sentiment turns negative. The fundamentals will hurt the markets more than they hurt them now. Long positions should be contemplated only for intraday and long positions that hurt the most should be liquidated at the end of the day. Avoid carrying long positions. Wait for the change in direction for going short.

Dated 18th May, 2009

2009-05-17T20:35:00.001-07:00

It was 10th consecutive week of gain for Sensex, the longest rally we’ve witnessed in recognizable past. Almost all sectors traded mixed during the week with reasonably good market breadth. Nalco, Zee Tele, Ranbaxy, HDFC and ICICI Bank gained more than 10% during the week while Cairn, ONGC, Sterlite and Tata Communications lost anywhere between 5-10%.

Looking at the outcome of the Elections and the clear mandate given to UPA, our markets should open with a huge gap up as is indicated by the Singapore Nifty. There is a possibility that we may see them losing ground from then. We might see a reversal from here and hence selling is surely recommended at the higher levels of Monday with a strict day close stop losses. SGX Nifty points a level of 4100-4150 at the opening. If this were to be the case, one can have a tight day close stop loss of 4250 and look for selling opportunity in Nifty and specific stocks. Risk averse traders better avoid the markets and wait for clear direction before entering.

Dated 11th May, 2009

2009-05-10T20:53:00.000-07:00

Markets went up for another week. Sensex and Nifty gained more than 4% along with all mid cap indices. The rally was due to the huge rally at the beginning of the week. Our markets under performed almost all the global peers due to nervousness of announcement of election results due this weekend. Metals were among the top gainers and Cement stocks witnessed notable losses. Oil marketing stocks saw weakness due to rising crude oil prices.

The momentum is losing strength, particularly here in Indian markets. Global markets still support gains. Charts in many global markets and commodities suggest another leg of rally before crashing. The election results should be a big trigger and in all probability we will be witnessing a huge crash. By the beginning of the next week, we see even global markets cooling off adding to the pain. One should get out of all long positions by the end of this week. We expect the cement and auto numbers to give negative surprises on their month on month numbers of May and hence recommend traders to create short positions on rises. Trade cautiously with adequate stoplosses.

BUY
Tata Power@ 895-900 Tgt 920, 1000 SL 870
Tata Tea @ 708-710 Tgt 760, 800 SL 690
Welspun Gujrath @ 110-111 Tgt 119, 124 SL 107

SELL
United Spirits @ 682-685 Tgt 654, 640 SL 694
Tata Communication @ 568-570 Tgt 540, 525 SL 580
Hero Honda @ 1230-1235 Tgt 1160, 1100 SL 1260
NTPC @ 193-194 Tgt 186, 182 SL 198

Dated 04th May 2009

2009-05-03T21:17:00.000-07:00

Though indices managed to move up during the last couple of weeks, distribution could be seen in many second rung stocks. The negative market breadth is a clear indicator to this effect. All the global markets are trading in green and SGX nifty suggests huge gap up opening back home. Nifty should find its peak anywhere between 3700-3800 range. A crack after a gap up opening is another possibility, which cannot be ruled out. We expect very little upside in many stocks and a huge potential downside. It will take a single session to wipe out the gains accrued all these days and hence one should trade the markets cautiously with strict stoplosses. Conserve your money and time for the big fall and initiate short positions before the fall. We shall send you an alert when we sense a big downside opportunity. Following are some calls for this month, which should be initiated at the appropriate levels with strict day close stoplosses.

BUY
Tata Power @ 875-880/above 920 Tgt 920, 1000 SL 850
Nalco @ CMP Tgt 238, 260 SL 200
GE Shipping @ 198-200 Tgt 220, 260 SL 190

SELL
Hero Honda @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1100, 1000 SL 1260
Bank of India @ 260-262 Tgt 240, 220 SL 270
Divis Lab @ 890-900 Tgt 800, 760 SL 930
NTPC @ 198-200 Tgt 182, 170 SL 206
Ambuja Cement @ 85-87 Tgt 78, 64 SL 94

Dated 20th April, 2009

2009-04-19T19:49:00.000-07:00

It was another week of gains for the markets but not as vigorous as was seen for the past few weeks. The market breadth was positive and the markets witnessed extreme volatility during the later half of the week. Banking stocks were in thick of the action as Bank Nifty rose more than 10% week on week. Metal stocks, after rallying relentlessly for few weeks, corrected from the highs witnessed early this week. SBI was the top Nifty gainer followed by Axis Bank, Reliance Capital, ICICI Bank, Unitech, ABB, BHEL and PNB. Nalco, Hindalco, Cairn, TCS, Tata Communication, GAIL, SAIL and Reliance power were the top Nifty losers.

The increasing volatility signals the end of this intermediate Bull Run in the markets. One can start looking at selling specific stocks at rises and liquidating all long positions. We might see another sharp rise to the levels of 3500 on Nifty and 11400 on Sensex before they crash down below 3000 and 10000 respectively. The fall is imminent but it is the question of timing the markets. Due to lack of fundamental support for the rise, once the selling starts it will be difficult to contain and the ensuing fall may be sharper than the rise. We see a possibility of stocks and indices eroding all the gains that were recorded during the month at this expiry itself. Hence one should only look at creating Medium term/Long term short positions. Avoid long positions at any level.

Dated 13th April,2009.

2009-04-12T21:08:00.000-07:00

Markets went up for 5th week in a row. It was one of the most spectacular rises we have seen for a long long time. It was a strong breakout technically without any fundamentally solid reason primarily driven by the strong support from global markets. The market breadth remained extremely positive and a third of the stocks traded in F&O segment recorded gains in excess of 10%. The major gainers included L&T, Tata Steel, Unitech, HCL Tech, Reliance Infra and Suzlon while BHEL and ACC were among the losers.

The pace of this rise may raise many eyebrows but it is for real. Though the rally lacks any fundamental backing, it was strong enough to keep the markets afloat and keep them above the October-November lows for some time. The results season is about to begin and looking at the indications we are getting, we are not going to witness any positive news flow from the companies in terms of guidance. The elections go underway this week and we don’t expect much there as well. All in all, this is a baffling move, which may culminate with a sharp rise upside in a couple of days before starting its downward journey again. Avoid carrying long positions.

Dated 23rd March, 2009

2009-03-22T21:24:00.000-07:00

Markets ended with gains for second consecutive week. It was the week where individual stocks got more attention than the markets. More than one fourth of the stocks traded in F&O segment ended the week with more than 10% gain. Technology, Aviation, Metals, Realty, Infra and Pharma were the sectors, which witnessed positive momentum whereas Cement, Auto and PSU banks and oil marketing stocks were showing relative weakness. DLF, Hindalco, Sterlite, Suzlon, HCL Tech, Nalco, Sail, Rcom and Zee were the top gainers. L&T, BPCL, ACC, Cipla and Unitech remained the top Nifty losers.

We might see our markets open with an upside gap due to strong Asian markets and may retrace from the highs. Utilize these opportunities to exit the markets. Nifty might face stiff resistance between 2860- 2900. We might see the month of April bringing a whole lot of negative surprises on the elections and results front hence we view this as the right opportunity for short and medium term traders to initiate and hold on to the short positions. One must progressively short Metals, Auto and Cement stocks since they are the ones, which outperformed the overall markets due to some positive news flow. I expect these sectors to lead the next leg of correction. Initiate short positions at higher levels and hold the positions for the coming 2 months.

SELL
Yes Bank @ 47-48 Tgt 42, 38.50 SL 49
Ranbaxy @ 150-152 Tgt 134, 122 SL 155
JSW Steel @ 192-194 Tgt 180, 172 SL 198
Titan @ 740-745 Tgt 700, 680 SL 755

Dated 16th March, 2009

2009-03-15T21:26:00.000-07:00

Both the major indices rallied sharply on the last trading session taking cues from global markets. Auto, Banking, Technology and Cement stocks participated in the rally. PSU oil marketing stocks were particularly weak as per our prediction last week. Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Sterlite, HDFC, Nalco, Tata Communications, Reliance and RPL were among the major Nifty gainers. HPCL, BPCL, Bharti, IOC and Zee were the major losers.

We might see a positive opening on Monday on back of a buoyant Friday close and there may be some follow up buying. But these rises are not likely to sustain. Technically major resistance for Nifty comes around 2800. Short traders must wait for opportunities to sell anywhere around this level. Be stock specific and trade short at higher levels. Fundamentally we don’t see any major reason for a sustained rally. There are some positive indications on the auto sales and cement dispatch figures. We feel that these numbers do not reflect the true picture due to extraneous reasons like election fever and the govt schemes running on fast track. But this myopia is likely to evaporate in 1-2 months. Aptech, Moser Baer, Yes Bank, IDFC, Hotel Leela, Canara Bank, Bharti and Idea may try to test lower levels in the coming week. One can trade short in these stocks with adequate stoplosses. Avoid long positions.

Dated 9th March, 2009

2009-03-08T20:54:00.000-07:00

Though it was a surprise, technically the pull back had to happen after such a steep cut. As time passes, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the markets to sustain a pull back. I am afraid we might see a time, not in the very distant future, when even pull backs as vigorous as this would be hard to come by. Any rise like this should be utilized to sell into irrespective of the valuations. We see no reason for the markets even to stabilize at this juncture, let alone a rally. Let all traders accept this reality and continue moving out of the markets and creating short positions. At levels that we are going to witness a few quarters from now, we might not dare to sell. Make the most of these relatively good times and SELL.

SELL
IOC @ 433-435 Tgt 424, 413 SL 438
Praj Industries @ 50-50.5 Tgt 46, 41 SL 52
India Infoline @ 42-43 Tgt 38.60, 35 SL 44
Aditya Birla Nuvo @ 360-364 Tgt 340, 320 SL 370
HPCL @ 276-278 Tgt 268, 260 SL 282
Reliance Capital @ 296-300 Tgt 271, 260 SL 305

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Dated 2nd March, 2009

2009-03-01T20:21:00.000-08:00

Markets managed to end the week in green despite weakness in global markets. Auto stocks lead the pull back. M&M, Tata Motors and Maruti were the top gainers in Nifty. Infosys, ONGC, Tata Communication, NTPC and BHEL were among the other gainers. Ranbaxy was the worst loser losing over a fifth of its market cap in the week. ABB, ACC, PNB, HDFC, SAIL and Zee were the other losers.

Most of the global markets breached October lows and drifted much lower. The outperformance of our markets is not likely to last for long given the bleak global outlook. Asian markets are trading weak and we should expect a gap down opening and the cuts may get much deeper during the course of the week. 2660-2680 is the strong support for Nifty and if it manages to breach this level, the next support comes only at 2520, the RIL-RPL merger not withstanding. Sell at the opening and hold on to short positions.

SELL
Divis Lab @ 860-864 Tgt 824, 800 SL 875
ABB @ 370-372 Tgt 348, 336 SL 380
ACC @ CMP Tgt 494, 478 SL 526
Reliance Capital @ 360-362 Tgt 333, 320 SL 370
Tech Mahindra @ 254-256 Tgt 232, 220 SL 262
Grasim @ 1370-1375 Tgt 1320, 1200 SL 1400

Dated 24th February, 2009

2009-02-23T20:18:00.001-08:00

Markets plunged sharply amid growing concerns of slow down and uninterrupted flow of bad news from the global markets. Almost all sectors too the hit with Banking index falling by a whopping 14% week on week. Small, medium and large cap stocks fell with out any exception. ICICI bank was the worst Nifty loser and lost more than one fifth of its market cap. Hindalco, Rcom, Reliance Infra, Tata Steel, Tata Communication, M&M, SAIL, HDFC, Suzlon, SBI, Unitech, PNB, RPL, L&T and Reliance were other counters which lost more than 10% week on week. Maruti, BPCL and ITC were the only Nifty stocks, which managed to end the week with out any losses.

Unlike the trend has been for years, we are going to witness the overall markets dominating the futures movement and the expiry rather than futures outstanding dictating the overall market trend. Markets might open with a downside gap and may take support at lower levels. 2660-2680 provides a good support for Nifty and we may see a bounce back from these levels. It Nifty manages to close below this band, we might see another sharp fall to 2500 very soon. Markets have to correct to levels of October-November lows sooner or later in line with the other global markets and it is a good opportunity for traders to build short positions in Nifty at rises. The heavy weights have to correct from this juncture and we will witness the 2500 levels in Nifty very soon. We have been recommending short positions since past 6 months and we continue to hold this belief that markets are heading for much lower levels. And the outlook cannot be complete with this last sentence “Avoid long positions at any level”.

Dated 16th February, 2009

2009-02-15T20:33:00.000-08:00

Nifty managed to close well above 2900 with good market breadth. Almost all sectors participated in the move. Technology remained subdued while sectors like Fertilizer, Auto, Financials and Capital goods moved up. DLF, M&M, Siemens, Nalco, Unitech, RCom, Zee and L&T were the top Nifty gainers. HCL Tech, Dr Reddy, Ranbaxy, Infosys and ABB figured among losers.

Nifty decisively broke the level of 2900 and closed above it. Multiple resistances exist above 3000 and we do not see any reason for the markets to add on to these gains. The interim budget is going to be presented in the Parliament today and hence expect volatility for this week. One should try to get out of equities at every opportunity. Medium term traders should utilize the opportunity to progressively build shorts with 2-3 month perspective.

SELL
ABB @ 444-446 Tgt 430, 419 SL 454
Praj Industries @ 61.5-62 Tgt 56 SL 64
India Infoline @ 52-53 Tgt 48 SL 55
Sterlite Industries @ 280-282 Tgt 263 SL 294

Dated 9th February 2009

2009-02-08T20:12:00.000-08:00

Markets recovered from the lower levels in line with the global markets and were held strong on the last trading day. Some of the small cap counters in F&O rallied after being beaten down continuously for past many months. Market breadth was negative for the major part of the week. Realty stocks witnessed mixed trends as the biggies DLF and Unitech got a drubbing while the smaller counters recovering smartly from the lows due to short covering. IT, Banking, Pharma and Financials lost further ground during the week while Cement and Shipping stocks were among the sectors which gained the most. Grasim, HCL Tech, ACC, SAIL and GAIL were the top Nifty gainers while Hindalco, M&M, Suzlon, HDFC, Reliance Infra, L&T, Reliance Power, Tata Motors and Sterlite lost anywhere between 5-10%.

2880-2900 is a crucial resistance area for Nifty in the short term. Markets may open with an upside gap given the strong global clues but there is every possibility that they may correct. A close above 2900 on Nifty may spring an upside surprise of another 100 points but the rallies are not likely to sustain. We might see distribution in many stocks taking place in the coming week/s and markets, in all probability, may resume their downward journey again. Wait till later half of the week for higher levels to create short positions progressively with a 2-3 month perspective. The possibility of negative surprises is looming large in the markets and it may come in at any time and in any form. Avoid long positions at any levels.

SELL
HCL Tech @ 130-132 Tgt 118 SL 135

Polaris @ 52-53 Tgt 48 SL 55

Mercator Lines @ 32-33 Tgt 28 SL 35

Sesa Goa 100-102 Tgt 90 SL 106

Ispat Industries @ 12-12.20 Tgt 10.60 SL 12.60

Dated 2nd February, 2009

2009-02-01T20:06:00.000-08:00

Markets moved up sharply after falling for 3 consecutive weeks. Stocks across all sectors moved up and most of the moves were due to short covering more than anything else. Metals, Auto, Banking and Sugar were sectors, which showed rises. Reliance Infra, Unitech, Zee, SAIL, Ranbaxy, Sterlite, Reliance, ICICI Bank and RPL were among the major Nifty gainers. Suzlon, GAIL and PNB were the only counters which ended the week in red.

The rally we saw just now is purely due to short covering and is not backed by genuine buying and hence we feel that it is not sustainable. The bounces that we are witnessing are bear market rallies, which have the tendency to create lower tops. We feel that it will take a very long time for this bear market to reverse or even find a bottom. One should trade on both sides once the markets finish the fall and form a trading range. At this point in time we recommend remaining only short. Short term resistance on Nifty exist at the current levels and a close above the Friday’s close may see Nifty trying to stage back to 2950 and further 3100 levels. But that looks an uphill task given the fact that markets already rallied quite a bit last week. One should not be fooled by the rallies of this kind and continue selling without worrying too much about the upside. We expect fall in Sugar, Cement and Infrastructure stocks in the following weeks and hence recommend traders to build short positions with adequate stoplosses.

Dated 27th January, 2009

2009-01-26T19:24:00.000-08:00

It was another week of downfall and almost all major and sectoral indices saw major falls. Reliance came out with better than expected quarterly numbers but still could not climb much. The weakness was visible all across and Banking was particularly weak despite good results from PSU banks. Powergrid was the biggest Nifty gainer with a 13% rise during the week while Zee lost about a fourth of its market cap. Nalco, Jet airways, Cipla and Hero Honda managed to hold into the green while Tata Steel, M&M, DLF, Ranbaxy, ICICI Bank, Hindalco, Siemens, RCom, Grasim, L&T, Maruti, Tata Motors, Maruti, SBI, HDFC, PNB, Wipro and Sail lost between 10-20% during the week.

A decisive close below 2700 on Nifty more or less indicates the things to come. There seems to be unanimity of opinion about the fall now and what we are going to witness is a range bound movement in Nifty for this week. The put call ratio suggests a range of 2600-2700 on Nifty until this expiry. One should indulge in stock specific short trades and pick the right counters to stay short. Cement counters remained quiet without much downside in January. We might see sharp downward rallies in cement in the coming month and hence we recommend traders to stay short in cement. The chances of negative shocks far exceed the possibility of a positive surprise and we may going forward see some more skeletons falling as promoters feel the funds crunch and had to come out in open due to desperation. We don’t want to get struck with another Satyam, or do we? Avoid buying.

Following are some of the positional calls for the month of February. Initiate short positions in counters where the Feb futures are tradina at or nearing initiation prices with appropriate day close stoplosses. Some stocks may not hit Initiation prices but the targets are in tact. Wait for the right opportunity and go short. Avoid trading long.

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Dated 19th January, 2009

2009-01-18T19:53:00.001-08:00

Nifty took support around 2680-2700 band and bounced back. The results so far didn’t do too much to give any big boost to the sagging markets. Realty, Infra, Banking and Metal stocks were among the major losers. Reliance Infra, Infosys, Hero Honda and M&M were among the major Nifty gainers while Unitech, Siemens and DLF lost more than 10% during the week.

Asian markets are trading strong and we might see opening gains on Monday. Short term resistances exist at 2860, 2950 and 3150. The action would remain stock specific as the third quarter results keep coming in. There are two reasons to remain short in the markets. The first one is that the overall medium and long term outlook looks extremely bleak and the other one is what happened with Satyam and Rolta can happen with a host of other companies in terms of price erosion. A negative surprise may see a stock crash in a single day and the days of pleasant surprises are more or less over. Risk takers should go ahead and initiate short positions in counters, whose results are due and cover positions after the announcement of results. Out of every 10 stocks we might see returns in 7-8 counters. One should only remain short at rises and do not carry any long positions.

Hero Honda, Indian Bank, Akruti, Chambal Fertilizer, Gail, Noida Toll, Maruti, GTL and GMR Infra are depicting relative strength and we might see some gains in short term. Avoid short positions in these stocks.

We might see fall in some of the PSU banking stocks which erstwhile remained strong throughout. Other counters where one can expect a fall in short term include IVRCL Infra, Financial Tech, DCB, Hindalco, JSW Steel, Punjlloyd, Pantaloon, Unitech, Voltas, Mc Dowell, Polaris and Jindal Saw.

Dated 12th January, 2009

2009-01-11T20:27:00.000-08:00

It was the most unfortunate day for the corporate India when Mr Ramalinga Raju confessed that Satyam was a fraud. It came as a shocker and nothing less than a ban and a disgorgement order against the auditors of the company should compensate the loss of credibility that India has suffered. A fraud of this nature is beyond imagination and the reaction from the markets is not very surprising. Almost all sectors took a hit and stocks with not so sound credentials were beaten to dust. Not surprisingly, Satyam was the biggest Nifty loser with a fall of 86%. DLF, Rcom, Unitech, Reliance Infra, Siemens, Reliance Power, L&T, HCL Tech, Ranbaxy, RPL, Nalco and Reliance were the biggest losers. Grasim, Maruti, TCS, M&M, HDFC, HUL and Infosys were the top gainers.

The next week is going to be crucial as the results season begin with the announcement of results from Infosys. The results this quarter are likely to throw some negative surprises and we should be prepared for some nasty blows on specific stocks. One should remain short in the markets as we are convinced about the long term bearish outlook.

Dated 5th January, 2009

2009-01-04T20:26:00.000-08:00

Indices recovered from the lows and markets gave a tremendous bounce back in terms of market breadth. Almost all sectors participated prominent among them were Media, Realty, Infrastructure, Metals, Banking, Technology, Capital Goods and Power. Unitech was the top gainer Satyam Computer, RCOM, Sail, Reliance Infra, Hindalco, Ranbaxy, Suzlon, Nalco, ABB, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Siemens and L&T were among the top gainers gaining anywhere between 10-35% over the week.

It was one of the worst weeks for us in terms of the success ratio of our weekly calls and outlook. Almost everything went wrong as markets staged a big rally. Markets defy everybody at one point or other and we are at the receiving end last week. We still maintain our overall view about the markets and recommend an exit for investors. We see resistance for Nifty coming at 3160 and further at 3250. We feel that markets are in a secular bear spiral and we might see a prolonged bear run on the markets and the rally that we have seen is a corrective rally which will fizzle out sooner or later. We do not recommend going against the trend and hence are vary of recommending a buy at this point. We suggest traders to wait for opportunities and remain sellers on the way down. Those who are holding on to the short positions should continue to hold the positions as we see troubled times ahead. Avoid long positions at any juncture.

Dated 29th December, 2008

2008-12-28T20:04:00.000-08:00

Indices started falling after two weeks of rally. Nifty faced resistance above 3100 and retraced. Both the major indices lost more than 7% during the week. Almost all sectors lost ground prominent among them were realty, Auto, Fertilizer, IT and Cement. Aditya Birla Nuvo, Cairn and Ranbaxy managed to end in green while Unitech, HCL Tech, M&M, SAIL, Satyam, Tata Motors, Reliance Infra, ICICI Bank, DLF, Sterlite, Reliance Power and Hindalco were the major Nifty losers all losing more than 10% during the week.

Nifty may find support around 2600-2620 and it may remain a crucial support zone for next couple of weeks. On the upside it may find it difficult to breach 2950. One should exit all long positions at every opportunity and remain short in the immediate to short term. The results season is about to begin and this quarter is all set to disappoint. Stay short.

SELL
PFC @ 123-125 Tgt 118, 111 SL 127
BHEL @ 1315-1320 Tgt 1260, 1220 SL 1340
Kesoram Inds @ 144-145 Tgt 136, 129 SL 150
Reliance Power @ 114-115 Tgt 108, 102 SL 119
United Spirits @ 900-905 Tgt 860, 825 SL 925

Dated 22nd December, 2008

2008-12-21T20:45:00.000-08:00

Markets moved up for second consecutive week with good volumes. Weak Oil prices, strong global markets, falling interest rates and fast declining inflation helped markets stage a strong bounce back. Participation was seen across sectors but prominent among them were Realty, Banking, Power, Cement and Technology. Unitech and HCL Tech were at top of the gainers list with 30% rise. Siemens, Ambuja Cement, ICICI Bank, Grasim, HDFC Bank, Powergrid, Suzlon, M&M, DLF, BPCL, PNB, NTPC, HUL and ONGC were other gainers, all richer by anywhere between 10-20%. Satyam Computer, RCOM, HDFC and Reliance Infra were among the top losers.

We are heading into the crucial week as far as the market direction is concerned. We feel that markets and many individual stocks will create short/medium term peaks during this week and start reversal. We might see some short covering rallies before this expiry on Wednesday. Nifty faces resistance at 3160 and further at 3250. We recommend traders to build aggressive short positions for January by the end of the week and maintain positions till January expiry. A sharp correction to the levels of 2600 is not ruled out in January. Get out of all long positions by the end of this week. A trader should have open short positions by the end of the week. The fall that we witness in January will be steep and hence do not book profits on short positions in a hurry.

SELL
GT Offshore Sell @ 238-240 Tgt 218, 204 SL 244
Jindal Saw Sell @ 246-248 Tgt 231, 212 SL 253
HDFC Sell @ 1555-1560 Tgt 1460, 1400 SL 1580
Aban Lloyd Sell @ 760-762 Tgt 695, 660 SL 776

Dated 15th December, 2008

2008-12-14T20:26:00.000-08:00

Both the major indices gained about 8% during the week amid very favourable market breadth. Many beaten down mid cap stocks witnessed huge short covering and added substantial open interest during the week. Stocks across all sectors participated in the rally except IT. Technology as a sector didn’t do too well and CNX IT index lost 2.8% week on week. DLF was the biggest Nifty gainer followed by RCOM, Suzlon, Sterlite, Tata Steel, Tata Communication, Unitech, Reliance, RPL, M&M, ACC and ICICI Bank all adding 15-25% during the week. HCL Tech, TCS, Dr Reddy, Power Grid and Cipla were among the losers.

All Asian markets opened with 2-5% gains. Nifty might test 3000 levels at the opening and it is interesting to see if it manages to hold these levels. If it manages to hold the opening gains we might see Nifty test 3160 during the week. A close above 2940 should be a short term stoploss for Nifty short positions. We still hold the view that markets in the medium term may see far lower levels from here and we might see a bearish trend continue for at least 2-4 quarters. Open Interest addition on Nifty indicates a strong close this month and hence we recommend traders to build aggressive short positions near December month expiry. Few stocks like Mphasis, GT Offshore, Power Grid, Financial Technologies, Central Bank, Jindal Saw look weak for the week.

2008-12-07T20:06:00.000-08:00

Markets were trading mixed for the week with favorable market breadth. Both the major indices Sensex and Nifty lost close to one and a half percentage points but the action was outside the index. Many mid-cap stocks moved significantly as is reflected in the Nifty Junior and Midcap indices, which gained 4.86% and 1.38% respectively. IT stocks were the clear losers during the week. Realty and Infrastructure stocks were among the major gainers ahead of the announcement of fiscal package. Unitech, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Zee, Grasim and ACC were among the major gainers while HCL Tech, M&M, Infosys, Maruti, Cipla, Satyam, ONGC, TCS and Sun Pharma were on the losing side.

The clues going into the next week are heartening. The weekend fiscal initiatives, RBI’s REPO rate cut and the strong global markets may script a positive gap up opening on our markets. Markets may start buoyant but that is unlikely to last for a long time. 2810-2830 is a strong short-term resistance on Nifty and it may find it difficult to breach and close above this band. Multiple resistances above 2900 make it even more difficult for a rally to sustain. On the downside expect supports at 2620 and further at 2500. We expect selling pressure during the later half of the week which makes risk reward favourable to a Short trader. It is a good opportunity for investors to exit their holdings and for traders to initiate short positions. The long-term trend is clearly “Down” and a “U-Turn” looks near to impossible. Do not get tempted to buy. Sell at rises with medium term perspective.

SELL
Cairn India @ 136-138 Tgt 128, 119 SL 141
Bank of Baroda @ 254-256 Tgt 241, 227 SL 262
Idea @ 51-52 Tgt 46, 43.50 SL 54
LIC Housing Fin @ 222-224 Tgt 198, 184 SL 227
Jindal Steel @ 850-860 Tgt 780, 720 SL 880
Rolta @ 149-150 Tgt 136, 123 SL 153

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Dated 1st December, 2008

2008-11-30T20:20:00.000-08:00

Markets withstood the big surprise attack on Mumbai and managed to hold. The F&O expiry was smooth and there was no big volatility. Over all the week belonged to stock specific moves where stocks across sectors showed moves on both sides. Hero Honda, TCS, HDFC Bank, Cipla, Sterlite, Bharti, BPCL, Reliance Power, BHEL and NTPC were the top Nifty gainers. Unitech, Siemens, Suzlon, M&M, Ambuja Cement and SBI figured among the top losers.

Though there was resilience to the biggest ever terrorist attack on India, the long term impact would be worse to say the least. The news flow could only worsen going forward. Looking at the veracity of the attack we just tend to feel that we might see some aggression from our side on Pakistan very soon. Though this is just a possibility, markets should certainly discount this chance sooner or later. One should not be caught on the long side though markets might put some gains in the immediate term. 2800 on Nifty provides a good resistance and further resistance comes around 2940. Nifty might try and test 2940 in short term and one should look at building short positions around these levels. For the time being, do not build aggressive short positions and wait for higher levels. Avoid long and trade shorts with caution.

SELL

Sterlite Industries @ 250-252 Tgt 222, 208 SL 260
TCS @ 568-570 Tgt 536, 522 SL 580
NTPC @ 163-165 Tgt 156, 151 SL 167
Hindustan Zinc @ 330-333 Tgt 301, 288 SL 340
Sail @ 70-71 Tgt 63, 59 SL 72

Dated 25th November, 2008

2008-11-23T20:23:00.000-08:00

Both the major indices Sensex and Nifty lost close to 5% and 4% respectively during the week. It would have been much worse but for the startling display of short covering on Friday. Markets were weak through out the week and recovered sharply during the last hours of trading on Friday. The market breadth was extremely negative. Almost all sectors took the hit except some pharma and cement counters. Ambuja Cement, BPCL, Zee, Ranbaxy and NTPC were among the Nifty gainers while Unitech, Tata Communication, DLF, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Power and HDFC were the top losers.

The sharp bounce back that we saw on Friday is not likely to last for long. Any sharp rise is an opportunity and one should use these opportunities to exit and build short positions. The fall is not likely to be abated at this juncture and we might not see any big upside in the immediate term. Nifty may at best try to climb to 2800 where it finds resistance before F&O expiry but it is almost certainly comeback to the supports of 2500 and 2360. A short trader must take his chances and maintain short positions. Markets are adjusting the excesses and trying to come back to what is being called fair valuation. Stocks are on their way down and are yet to stop. Buying should be contemplated only when the fall comes to an end and markets consolidate for a reasonable amount of time, which is a long drawn process. In all probability, we are not going to see that happen any time soon. This bear phase may remain for a time longer than expected. Do not ponder over buying but try to exit.
“Trade what you see and not what you think”.

SELL
JSW Steel Sell @ 210-212 Tgt 184, 170 SL 217
National Aluminium Sell @ 180-182 Tgt 168, 160 SL 190
Indian Hotel Sell @ 49-49.50 Tgt 45, 43 SL 50
Cairn India Sell @ 141-142 Tgt 132, 125 SL 145
SBI Sell @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1120, 1070 SL 1245
HDFC Sell @ 1450-1460 Tgt 1320, 1200 SL 1500

2008-11-16T20:23:00.000-08:00

Markets tumbled once again after 2 weeks of gains. The fall was again across the board and none of the sectors was spared. There were no places to hide since even defensives like FMCG are not able to hold the their prices. There were no notable gainers from Nifty except Nalco, which added more than 6% during the week. Suzlon, Zee, SAIL, Unitech, Tata Motors, DLF, ACC, M&M, L&T, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the major losers.

As has been our view since past 2-3 months, markets don’t look too promising for the foreseeable future. Things may become worse than what is being talked about and hence we might not see any recovery in the markets. Supports exist for Nifty at 2600 and further at 2520. It may find it difficult to breach 3000. We have been witnessing sharp bounce backs every now and then but we feel that from the current point even bounce backs would not be sharp. So a short trader carries with him lesser amount of risk and more rewards. We recommend medium and long term investors to liquidate their holdings and stay in cash. The fall may not stop here but it cannot go on like this forever. Hence traders should make the most of this situation and try to make bucks as quickly as possible. We may see the pace of the fall subsiding after a while but not the actual fall. Investors are still not willing to accept this fact since we haven’t witnessed it so far, but we see a strong possibility of this phase remaining for a long time.

SELL
Siemens @ 300-302 Tgt 278, 264 SL 314
Rolta @ 170-172 Tgt 154, 146 SL 175
IDFC @ 66-67 Tgt 62, 57 SL 71
Cipla @ 191-192 Tgt 181, 174 SL 195
National Aluminium @ 181-183 Tgt 168, 150 SL 185
Praj Industries @ 73-74 Tgt 66, 61 SL 76
ICICI Bank @ 408-410 Tgt 376, 333 SL 420

2008-11-09T20:23:00.000-08:00

Markets witnessed short covering in many F&O counters but indices saw slender gains due to sharp cuts in Reliance and some technology stocks. Banking stocks were the major gainers during the week with a sharp rise of close to 12% on Bank Nifty. Reliance lost as much as 11% and was the one of the major Nifty losers along with Sterlite, Tata Steel, Satyam, Infosys and ABB. Suzlon was the top gainer with a 60% gain after the severe drubbing it got in the last couple of months. Ranbaxy, DLF, Reliance Infra, Reliance Power, PNB, BPCL, Siemens, ITC, SBI and ONGC gained anywhere between 10-30% during the week.

Asian markets saw huge rallies this morning and we may see a gap up opening at the beginning. Multiple resistances exist for Nifty between 3260-3400 and it is not likely that Nifty will breach this zone effortlessly. It is highly unlikely that equities witness across the board buying in the foreseeable future. We believe that the rises that we are seeing every now and then are due to short covering and not genuine long term buying. The valuations in many stocks are looking reasonable at this juncture but the fundamentals are changing as quickly. If the alacrity with which markets sold off during the past couple of months is any indication, we feel we are in for troubled times. Do not commit funds for buying equities and wait for at least another 2 quarters. The markets are here to stay and the stocks, which saw stupendous rallies during the past, are not going to be the same money making machines. Next time it will be a new set of stocks that will make money for investors. We recommend traders to create fresh shorts and hold.

Maruti Sell @ 610-614 Tgt 564, 540 SL 626
Rolta Sell @ 168-170 Tgt 146, 138 SL 174
Siemens Sell @ 307-310 Tgt 278, 250 SL 314
Bharti Airtel Sell @ 670-674 Tgt 618, 600 SL 685
Sun Pharma Sell @ 1230-1240 Tgt 1165, 1120 SL 1260
Zee Limited Sell @ 145-147 Tgt 136, 124 SL 150

Dated 2nd November, 2008

2008-11-02T20:37:00.000-08:00

Indices recovered sharply from the lows they touched on the first trading day of the week. It was a sharp recovery and both Sensex and Nifty recovered nearly 25-30% from the lows. The bounce back was lead by Metals, Technology, Auto, Infrastructure and Realty stocks. Almost all sectors made significant gains due to short covering. The most prominent among gainers is Reliance, which gained nearly 35% during the week. Unitech, Hindalco, Sterlite, Tata Communincation, ICICI Bank and M&M were the other gainers all richer by more than 25%. Sun Pharma, Ranbaxy, Suzlon, Dr Reddy and SBI were among the losers.

A bounce back was necessary for the markets and it happened at the most opportune time ie.. on Diwali. This pull back may take Nifty to 3100 and may be even 3400. On the downside 2760 provides a strong support and Nifty is likely to hold this support for a couple of weeks, at least. The overall sentiment going into the next week is positive and hence one should avoid taking short positions in the immediate future. We may witness stock specific movements this week and hence traders are recommended to cautiously trade long on dips. If Nifty manages to climb to the levels of 3400, it will be a right opportunity for medium term traders to start building short positions and even investors to get out of their holdings. Short term/intraday traders may go long on falls in specific stocks and medium term players should look for building short positions on sharp rallies. 3400 on Nifty is an ideal level for going short and hence we recommend traders to wait for a week of upside and then build medium term short positions.

BUY
Reliance Comm @ CMP Tgt 242, 258 SL 205
IVRCL Infra @ 83-85 Tgt 94, 100 SL 80
Tata Communication @ 455-460 Tgt 482, 500 SL 440
Chambal Fertilizer @ 43.50-44 Tgt 47, 50 SL 42.80
GTL Infra @ 37.8-38 Tgt 39.5, 41.20 SL 37

SELL
Satyam Computers @ 316-320 286 264 335
Sun Pharma @ 1170-1180 1040 1000 1200
GVK Power @ 12-12.30 10 8.60 13
Sterlite Inds @ 310-320 260 220 340

Dated 27th October, 2008

2008-10-26T21:30:00.000-07:00

Indices are trading at levels not seen in the last 3 years. Another week of selling saw Nifty losing close to 16% and Sensex losing around 13%. The last trading session was particularly severe and almost stocks from all sectors were sold off with out any support. This phase is arguably “the Worst” for our markets so far. Blue chips losing 20-50% in a single day is a rare sight to behold. Technology heavyweights were holding strong in an otherwise weak market and Realty was the worst loser. Uniteh, Suzlon, Nalco, M&M, Tata Motors, DLF, Tata Steel and Hindalco were the top Nifty losers while TCS, Satyam and Infosys were the top gainers.

A bounce back should be the least one could expect after a fall of such magnitude. Markets are defying all laws when it comes to this fall. There is no support at any level and hence one should not be very aggressive buyer at this point of time. The alacrity with which stocks are being sold off, suggests large-scale exodus of funds and not just liquidation. It might take a long time for these wounds to heal and hence one should stay away. We recommend even long term investors to stay away at this moment since the results for the coming quarters are likely to surprise even the most pessimistic estimates. There is a sense of gloom everywhere, which is likely to stay for more time. For the time being avoid the markets and traders make the most of it. Many stocks are likely to see more falls and hence short term short trades may be profitable. The best thing still is to stay away.

Dated 20th October, 2008

2008-10-19T19:52:00.000-07:00

It was the heavy weights’ turn to contribute towards the downtrend. Biggies like Reliance, L&T, ONGC, RPL, Grasim, Ranbaxy, Nalco, Hindalco and Tata Steel fell anywhere between 10-25% week on week. The market breadth was not as terrible as we have seen in the recent past. There were sharp short covering rallies in some of the beaten down F&O stocks. PSU Banking stocks bucked the trend and remained resilient during this entire bear phase. ICICI Bank, PNB, Satyam Computer, GAIL and BPCL were among the top Nifty gainers.

Nifty may test the psychological 3000 mark this week achieving our target (given on 29th Sep) in just 20 days. We feel that the fall is likely to continue but it requires real guts to go short at this level. One must wait for a small pull back for going short. Going long is a strict “NO” since the overall trend is negative and is likely to remain so for atleast another 2 quarters. There is a possibility that we may witness some euphoria being created before Diwali, but still I feel it should be utilized to sell into stocks. Stocks like Bharti, Power Grid, Lupin, NTPC, Kotak Bank have broken their short term supports and are likely to see further downside. One should not be very aggressive while selling but remain short, never the less.

Dated 13th October, 2008

2008-10-12T20:24:00.000-07:00

The selling just doesn’t seem like abating. It was THE WORST week on the exchanges in terms of index fall and erosion in market cap. After all we don’t very often see bluechips losing one fourth of their value in a single week, especially after a deep cut had already happened. It was more or less predicted by us and we were categorical when we said this on September the 29th and I quote - One must exit all long positions and wait for the opportunity to short the markets. We might see some soothing comments from the FM and statements from big corporates when they come out with second quarter results about the India growth story but that will only add to the pain – unquote. Amid the turmoil, PSU stocks were the ones, which were a bit resilient than the rest. Suzlon, Sterlite Inds, RCOM, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Unitech and Siemens were the stocks that lost more than 25% week on week.

It sends shivers down my spine when I hazard a guess that another such week is on cards. I have my own reasons for such a wild guess. A small pull back is not ruled out, though. Asian markets are recovering this morning and we might see a flat to gap up opening but markets are not likely to sustain rises. There is an age old saying that “Buy when the markets are panic” but I don’t buy this argument at this moment at least for I recommend buying when I see appreciation and not because stocks have fallen. History is being created everyday and I would surely hate to be caught on the wrong side. We recommend Medium and long term investors to wait for another two quarters before committing any funds. It is a ‘clear sell’ from our side and investors must take their own informed decisions before taking a call on the markets. We must have a stop loss for any trade and a close above 3500 should be the stoploss on Nifty. If one were to buy for a pull back I would rather recommend for a wait for the pull back and sell. If one has not already sold, I suggest cutting positions, if not short. A pull back is certainly possible but it is worth cutting positions than withstanding the pain. For the die-hard bulls, I could only recollect the old Raj Kapoor classic “Jaane kahaan gaye wo din….”.

SELL
Bharti Airtel @ 710-720 Tgt 660, 600 SL 740
Lupin @ 640-645 Tgt 565, 490 SL 660
PNB @ 480-484 Tgt 440, 400 SL 495
Titan @ 850-860 Tgt 760, 680 SL 880
Hero Honda @ CMP Tgt 770, 730 SL 840
Tata Communication @ 425-430 Tgt 385, 340 SL 440
NTPC @ 168-170 Tgt 159, 148 SL 174
SAIL @ 110-112 Tgt 98, 82 SL 114

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Dated 29th September, 2008

2008-09-28T20:53:00.000-07:00

It was one of the horrible weeks that we saw for a long time. The market breadth was never so terrible in the recent past. Almost all sectors witnessed selling and many mid-cap stocks broke their respective long term supports and are looking extremely weak. The negative bias existed the entire week with two thirds of the stocks traded in the F&O segment losing between 5%-25%. Sun Pharma and Hero Honda were the only gainers in Nifty. Ranbaxy was the top nifty loser shedding nearly a quarter of its market capitalization. Wipro, Suzlon, Siemens, Unitech, Satyam Computer, Tata Motors, Hindalco, TCS, Infosys and ICICI Bank lost more than 10% week on week.

Markets are in a state of despair amid growing concerns of slow down. Markets always discount the future in advance and we see no exception this time. Markets are giving a clear indication of the times to come. The markets have corrected fair bit in the last week and a bounce back may be possible. Nifty may take support at 3860 and may give a small pull back rally. One must exit all long positions and wait for the opportunity to short the markets. We might see some soothing comments from the FM and statements from big corporates when they come out with second quarter results about the India growth story but that will only add to the pain. It is clear from the charts that the highs of January are history and let traders be not fooled by the ludicrous levels that we saw not very long ago. The downward momentum is here to stay and one must act fast and be not tempted by the valuations. The valuations in many stocks may look cheap but we are almost definitely going to see far more moderation in the valuations. The 61.2% retracement on Nifty comes around 3000, which doesn’t look impossible looking at the negative breakouts in most of the stocks. We see the possibility of the selling escalating as we move forward and we might see a protracted bear run. Utilize every rise to exit long positions and build shorts. There are a very few stocks which are depicting strength which include Tata Communications, Axis Bank, Glaxo, Hero Honda, Syndicate Bank, Lupin, HUL and Zee. Every other stock is looking weak and we recommend medium term traders to stay short and maintain short positions for another 2-4 quarters. SELL.

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Dated 22nd September

2008-09-21T21:23:00.000-07:00

Last week saw huge volatility due to turmoil in US financial market but the response in the end was more than heartening. We closed the week in positive after nearly touching the lows of July. Maruti, HDFC, Reliance, NTPC, SAIL and ONGC were the major Nifty gainers all gaining more than 5% week on week. Ranbaxy was the top loser followed by Satyam, Tata Steel, Dr Reddy, DLF, Zee and Hindalco.

All global markets surged on the weekend and the Asian markets opened with strong gains. In all probability we might see a gap up opening and Nifty may try to test the levels of 4400 this week. Irrespective of the global indices and the direction of our markets we might see stock specific movements this week due to the F&O expiry. There is a short build up in many counters and we might see sharp upside rallies in some stocks because of short covering. Trade with caution and utilize sharp rallies to exit long positions. 4560 and 4640 are very strong medium term resistances and hence any move on Nifty towards these levels should be an opportunity to exit and even initiate shorts.
BUY
Tata Communication @ 452-456 Tgt 474, 500 SL 444
Akruti City @ 895-900 Tgt 960, 1000 SL 875
Power Grid @ 94-95 Tgt 99, 101, 104 SL 92.50
Bharti Airtel @ 795-800 Tgt 836, 870 SL 785

SELL
Sobha Developers @ 221-223 Tgt 211, 202 SL 226
GVK Power @ 32.80-33 Tgt 31, 29.80 SL 33.50
ONGC @ 1110-1120 Tgt 1040, 1000 SL 1140
Punj Lloyd @ 322-324 Tgt 304, 286 SL 333
JSW Steel @ 620-624 Tgt 581 SL 634

Dated 15th September, 2008

2008-09-14T20:27:00.000-07:00

Markets opened the week with a huge gap on back of positive news flow but kept falling unabatedly thereafter. The selling was so severe that the markets lost all the gains of Monday and Sensex went on to close the week with a loss of over 3%. Almost all sectors recorded losses and the market breadth remained extremely negative. The worst performer on Nifty was Sterlite Industries, which lost more than 17% during the week. Reliance Infra, Reliance Industries, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Siemens and ICICI Bank were among the top Nifty losers. Nalco, Powergrid and Maruti managed to record some gains.

Nifty broke all near term supports decisively and closed below its 50 DMA. The next reliable support for Nifty comes only at 3860. We might, in all probability, see a weak gap down opening and one should exit ones long positions at the slightest opportunity. Fresh shorts may be initiated at rises. We might see buying emerge around 4140 and further at 4000 levels but Nifty might make an attempt to test the lows created in the month of July. On the upside, breaching 4420 looks a colossal task. Medium term traders should wait for the right time to go short. We recommended traders to progressively short Nifty on sharp bounce backs, with a day close stoploss of 4560 for a target objective of 3600 and with a time frame of 2-3 months.

BUY
Bajaj Auto @ 600-605 Tgt 640, 680 SL 580
Nagarjuna Const @ 122-123 Tgt 131, 136 SL 118
Mphasis @ 238-240 Tgt 253, 276 SL 234
Sesa Goa @ 132-133 Tgt 141, 144 SL 128

SELL
Reliance Industries @ CMP Tgt 1880, 1800 SL 1970
Sterlite Technologies @ 180-182 Tgt 170, 163 SL 185
Praj Industries @ CMP Tgt 161, 148 SL 170
Everonn Systems @ 470-475 Tgt 440, 400 SL 490
IDFC @ CMP Tgt 88, 79 SL 93

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Dated 8th September, 2008

2008-09-07T22:26:00.000-07:00

Markets logged good gains on the on Tuesday and gave away the gains in the last 2 trading sessions. The sole reason for the fall was the weak global markets. Our markets were still resilient and trading with poise even on the days when indices were sharply down. Strength was clearly evident in our markets since there was no panic selling after the global sell off. Aviation, Oil and Gas and Banking stocks saw heavy buying interest while technology and sugar stocks were trading weak. Heavy weights Reliance, Bharti, HDFC, SAIL, Infoys and Cairn were the major losers while BPCL, SBI, GAIL, Ranbaxy, HCL Tech, PNB and ONGC were among the major gainers.

The clues, going into the next week, are strong enough to trigger a 5% rally in the indices. The NSG waiver was a clear positive supported by sharp rallies in the other Asian markets and weak crude. The platform couldn’t have been any better. Expect a strong gap up opening and a further rise. Nifty might make an attempt to breach the last week’s peak of 4520. The short term resistance for Nifty exists at 4560 and further at 4640. We might see strong resistance coming above 4600. If Nifty manages to breach and close above 4640 we might see another sharp rise to the levels of 4950. One should trade long as long as Nifty stays above 4280. For the week we expect a broad trading band of 4400-4640 on Nifty.

[b]BUY[/b]
M&M @ CMP Tgt 604, 640 SL 580
TVS Motor Above 36 Tgt 41, 46 SL 34
Financial Tech @ 1460-1470 Tgt 1540, 1600 SL 1440
Mphasis @ 244-245 Tgt 253, 276 SL 240
Bajaj Auto @ 600-605 Tgt 625, 680 SL 580
Nagarjuna Const Buy @ 128-130 Tgt 136, 142 SL 124

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Dated 1st September, 2008

2008-08-31T20:52:00.000-07:00

Last week :
Markets gave a surprise rally on the first day of the new settlement with a more than 500 point rise in Sensex. Markets were trading weak throughout the week but wiped out all the losses with a stupendous rise on Friday to end the week with a percentage points on Sensex. Banking stocks were the top performers lead by HDFC Bank, which rose close to 8%. Bank Nifty rose more than 5% week on week. Satyam, PNB, M&M, HCL Tech and SAIL were the top Nifty gainers while Reliance was the major loser with a 4% fall.

Prediction for the Coming week :
The rally of Friday was a real surprise. Our markets out performed all other global markets at the slightest opportunity. Nifty finds support at 4280-4300 in the short term. Markets might open with a gap down but may recover from 4300. We expect the support of 4280-4300 to hold in the coming week, unless there is a very strong bad news waiting. 4400-4420 on Nifty looks a strong resistance and if it manages to breach this level 4500 and even 4580 looks a possibility. Exit long positions if Nifty drifts below 4280. Short positions may be contemplated below 4250 with a stoploss of 4300. For the week we see a trade band of 4280 – 4420 on Nifty.

BUY
Infosys Tech @ 1745-1750 Tgt 1805, 1840 SL 1730
Indian Bank @ 122-123 Tgt 131, 137 SL 120
Patni Computer Above 234 Tgt 248, 270 SL 227
Lupin @ 727-728 Tgt 745, 768 SL 720

SELL
GE Shipping @ 390-392 Tgt 380, 364, 337 SL 396
Maharastra Seamless @ 290-292 Tgt 281, 274 SL 296
Grasim @ 1960-1970 Tgt 1910, 1820 SL 1990
IVR Prime @ 170-172 Tgt 163, 156 SL 175
Hindustan Oil Exp @ 124-126 Tgt 118, 110 SL 128

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Outlook for the Week - Dated 25th August, 2008

2008-08-24T20:21:00.000-07:00

Week that has gone by :
Markets were trading in negative territory for the major part of last week. Market breadth was negative and almost all the sectoral and mid-cap indices were in red. Oil marketing companies sprung negative surprises by losing heavily despite weak crude. There was no big out performances from any sector except odd Rolta and SAIL. Ranbaxy, Cipla, Tata Power, ABB and HDFC Bank were among the major gainers. ACC, BPCL, SBI, Grasim, Suzlon, Satyam, HCL Tech, Ambuja Cement, M&M, NTPC and GAIL were the top nifty losers.

Coming week :
Markets should see a slight bounce back after 2 weeks of weakness. The global clues are good and crude has crashed once again after rising above $120 per barrel. We might see Nifty give a bounce back to 4400-4420 levels but we don’t expect a very sharp move above this level. One should trade in ranges and do not expect huge rallies on either side. On the downside 4260 provides a good support. F&O expiry is due on this Thursday and in view of this, we recommend traders to avoid much exposure. We recommend stock specific trading and a trading band of 4260-4420 on Nifty.

BUY
Tata Power @ 1038-1040 Tgt 1090, 1120 SL 1020
LIC Housing Finance @ 320-322 Tgt 336, 344 SL 314
Biocon @ 395-398 Tgt 413, 440 SL 392
Bata India @ 171-172 Tgt 181, 192 SL 167

SELL
Cummins India @ 305-310 Tgt 288, 277 SL 318
GTL Below 190 Tgt 181 SL 193
Sesa Goa @ 160-161 Tgt 154, 148.50 SL 163
BEL @ 960-965 Tgt 900 SL 980

Outlook for the Week beginning 18th August 2008

2008-08-17T23:06:00.000-07:00

Last week :
The selling on the last trading session was more severe ahead of a long weekend and almost all sectors lost ground. Most of the F&O counters saw liquidation and hence witnessed reduction in open interest. Banking stocks got hit the most with a 6.5% fall in the Bank Nifty. Metals, Oil and Gas, Cement, Realty and Telecom stocks figured among the top losers. Cairn remained the top Nifty gainer followed by HCL Tech, Bajaj Auto, Siemens and Zee. HDFC, DLF, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, PNB, Hindalco, L&T and DR Reddy were the prominent losers all lost anywhere between 5-9%.
The coming week is going to be:
Get ready for another bout of selling after the Thursday’s fall and this fall will be more severe. We may witness selling coming from all quarters despite the weak crude. One has to play only short in markets if one were to take a short term call. We have every reason to believe that the shorts were already covered and further long liquidation is due. One has to act fast and get out of the long positions as quickly as possible and remain short for a week or so. We recommend traders to trade short in Nifty with a day close stoploss of 4480 and look for support levels of 4360 and further 4280, which look near term possibilities.

SELL
HDIL @ 442-444 Tgt 422, 398 SL 450
GTL @ 194-196 Tgt 188, 181 SL 198
Skumar Synfab @ 71-72 Tgt 68.50, 65.50 SL 73.50
RPL @ 163-164 Tgt 158.50, 154 SL 166
Rajesh Exports @ 52-52.50 Tgt 48.20, 44.50 SL 54
Sterling Bio @ 180-181 Tgt 172, 161 SL 184(day)
Praj Industries @ 183-184 Tgt 173, 168 SL 187
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