12-Apr-2010

Markets are at a fresh 2 year high as both the major indices moved up by 1.35% each as the Q4 corporate results started coming in. The mid-cap side of the market is enthusiastic with a very positive advance decline ratio. All sectors inched up with the exception of Technology. Infrastructure, Realty, Banking, Cement, Financials, Shipping and Telecom were the sectors which saw positive build up. DLF was the biggest Nifty gainer with a 6.87% rise followed by BHEL (6.12%), Hero Honda (5.74%), RCOM (4.74%) and Tata Motors (4.11%). SAIL was the biggest Nifty loser with a close to 7% cut after the announcement of its FPO. The other losers included HUL (3.93%), HCL Tech (3.74%), Hindalco (2.69%), ONGC (1.9%) and Ranbaxy (1.83%).

Infosys comes out with its yearly numbers on Tuesday and in all probability we may witness some positive comments from the management. The IT stocks have already run up significantly to afford another big rally. A correction after positive numbers cannot be ruled out. The global markets are looking good going into the week and Nifty may see some positive momentum. Strong immediate term support is placed at 5290 (low placed on 8th) followed by multiple supports near 5180-5230. Last week’s high of 5400 acts as immediate resistance. We recommend traders to trade in specific stocks with strict stoplosses as the event risks loom large.

05-Apr-10

It is 8 weeks in a row that both Sensex and Nifty managed to close positive. The market breadth was positive and everything seems to be working in favor. The global clues were positive with all Asian, European and American markets firing on all cylinders. HDFC was the biggest gainer in Nifty followed by DLF, Unitech, Cairn and Sterlite while Hero Honda, Infosys, HCL Tech, Idea and TCS were among the top losers.

The optimism is back in the markets again and greed is taking over slowly. The most heartening part of this rally is that non-performing sectors were kept out for too long. It gives an indication of a sustained rally upwards with stocks and sectors outperforming in turns. We have seen IT stocks correct during the week but Banking and Metals took over and kept the action alive. In all probability we are in for 5600 and higher levels on Nifty with any corrections holding support of 5100-5200. It is time to have a look at the performers from the lagging sectors and bet. Buy specific stocks on every correction and ride the wave.

BUY
CANBK @ CMP Tgt 440, 460 SL 406
CENTURYTEX @ CMP Tgt 542, 590 SL 510
AREVAT&D @ CMP Tgt 338 SL 300
WELGUJ @276-278 Tgt 296 SL 274
BHUSANSTL @ 1740-1745 Tgt 1800 SL 1720
GESHIP @ CMP Tgt 321 SL 286
VOLTAS @ 176-177 Tgt 182, 190 SL 174

29-Mar-2010

It is 7th consecutive week of gains for the indices and still counting. Both Sensex and Nifty managed to close the week in green amid sluggish market breadth. The buoyancy is brought back into the markets by Pharma stocks which rose sharply during the week. Second rung Pharma stocks were at the thick of the action as most of them rose in double digits over the week. HDFC Bank was the biggest gainer in Nifty followed by Reliance Power, PNB, Sun Pharma, Cairn and Cipla. The losers included Tata Motors, DLF, Suzlon, GAIL, Idea, Unitech and HDFC.

Markets are trading near 2 year highs and are looking good for a sustained rally. The volumes in the markets have improved significantly during the last few months which supporting the rise. The FY is coming to an end and we may see many stock specific movements to jack the NAVs upwards. In all probability we may see markets closing above the 2 year highs this week and we may go into the next year with lots of enthusiasm. Markets have seen the worst in the last 2 years and it is behind us. It is going to be a stock specific market going ahead and there is a lot on table for the stock picker.

BUY
CANBK @ 410-412 Tgt 440, 460 SL 406
CENTURYTEX @ 518-520 Tgt 542, 590 SL 510
AREVAT&D @ 306-308 Tgt 338 SL 294
WELGUJ @ CMP Tgt 296 SL 274
BHUSANSTL @ 1720-1724 Tgt 1800 SL 1700
GESHIP @ 294-296 Tgt 321 SL 286

15-Mar-2010

Markets, after rallying the entire week after the budget, continued the upward journey but with less steam. The market breadth remained negative as markets witnesses two out of every 3 stocks ending the week with losses. Markets were particularly severe on Sugar counters as they plummeted from the last weeks levels after the govt’s clamp down on the sugar stocks and prices. Markets traded mixed with select stock specific outperformances and all sectors throwing gainers as well as losers. M&M remained the top Nifty gainer with over 6% WoW gain while the other gainers included Ambuja Cement, ABB, ITC, HDFC, TCS and Axis Bank. HUL was the negative surprise of the week with a fall of close to 9%. Suzlon, Unitech, RCom, Tata Motors and Reliance Infra were among the top losers.

Markets look weary as observed in the breadth last week. Support from some index stocks managed the market to stay positive but looking at the way many midcaps saw distribution casts shadow on the short term strength. Markets are trading near crucial juncture as Nifty nearing the major resistance of 5200. It is difficult for it to breach the band of 5200-5250 in the near term going by the global clues. Markets may try to test this resistance and correct sharply. On the downside 4940 remains a major support in the near term.

BUY
CANBK @ 402-405 Tgt 434 SL 398
CENTURYTEX @ 516-518 Tgt 542, 560 SL 510

SELL
VIDEOIND @ 230-232 Tgt 214 SL 236
IFCI @ 52.50-53 Tgt 48.60 SL 54
RELINFRA @ CMP Tgt 940 SL 1020
BHARTIARTL @ 300-302 Tgt 281 SL 306
IBREALEST @ 176-178 Tgt 160 SL 181
JSWSTEEL @ 1200-1205 Tgt 1140 SL 1220

08-Mar-2010

Markets recovered sharply and traded the entire week with positive bias. The market breadth was extremely positive as both the major indices inched up more than 3% over the week. The midcaps were more active and many midcap stocks rallied as both Nifty junior and CNX midcap improved by close to 6% each. IT stocks showed some fatigue and failed to participate as rupee started appreciating against dollar during the week. Suzlon was the major Nifty gainer with over 12% WoW gain, followed by Tata Motors, JP Associates, Jindal Steel, Tata Power, Unitech, Tata Steel, SAIL, Bharti, DLF and M&M all gained over 5%. BPCL was the major Nifty loser with just over 4% fall. ONGC, HCL Tech and Axis Bank were the only other losers.

The global markets look good going into the next week. We may see Nifty opening with a positive gap but should find resistance at higher levels. 5200-5250 seems like a formidable immediate term resistance and Nifty may take some time to take out this resistance. We see a band of 4940-5250 during the coming week on Nifty. Markets may trade stock specific with laggards catching up.

BUY
SUZLON @ 79-80 Tgt 90 SL 76
KSOILS @ 72.5-73.00 Tgt 76, 80 SL 71.50
TRIVENI @ 124-125 Tgt 132, 140 SL 122
ADANIENT @ CMP Tgt 524, 540 SL 490
BHUSANSTL @ 1740-1750 Tgt 1810 SL 1720
JINDALSAW @ 210-211 Tgt 224 SL 206

SELL
TATAMOTORS @ 800-804 Tg 760 SL 815
ROLTA @ 183-185 Tgt 172 SL 187
HCLTECH @ 364-366 Tgt 352, 340 SL 372
TATAPOWER @ 1340-1345 Tgt 1280 SL 1360

02-Mar-2010

Markets consolidated throughout the week but broke upside after the announcement of the Union Budget. The global markets remained supportive and almost all sectors recovered as broader indices closed near their highest levels in a month. Hindalco, Maruti, L&T, Reliance Capital, Ranbaxy, SAIL, Idea, Sterlite and ICICI bank were among the biggest Nifty gainers. ITC was the biggest loser as the stock plummeted after the announcement of imposing taxes on tobacco products. BPCL, RCOM and Hindustan Unilever were among the other losers on Nifty.

The external markets are looking good and we may see range bound activity in our markets as we move further. Markets may consolidate as positive news flowing in from across the globe. A close above 4940 is crucial for the markets to continue the upward direction. Much would depend on how the global markets fare in the immediate term. It would be a stock specific market with range bound index activity. The budget brings a host of positive news and hence may limit the downside on markets. Banking, Metals and Infrastructure stocks may fare well during the week.

BUY
HDFCBANK @ 1695-1700 Tgt 1760 SL 1680
SESAGOA @ 378-380 Tgt 404 SL 372
LT @ 1540-1545 Tgt 1620 SL 1520
AXISBANK @ 1120-1122 Tgt 1160, 1200 SL 1105
SIEMENS @ 660-664 Tgt 720 SL 650

22-Feb-2010

Markets ended the week on mixed note as Sensex managed to close the week in green while Nifty lost nearly half a percentage points week on week. Banking and Technology indices managed to pull through the week with over 1% gain apiece while the mid cap indices lost marginally. It was a week with weak market breadth and high volatility. Pharma, Metals and Technology stocks were among the gainers. Realty, Infrastructure, Sugar, Telecom, Energy and Media stocks lost fair bit of ground. Hindalco, Ranbaxy, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Tata Steel were the top nifty gainers with more than 5% rise each. Bharti was the biggest loser with an 11% cut week on week followed by Unitech, Reliance Infra and DLF, all losing more than 5% over the week.

Most markets reacted adversely after the announcement of discount rate hike by the FOMC but Dow Jones managed to escape losses. There are enough indications that the easy money availability would come to an end sooner than later and Fed’s action last week is a step in that direction. Markets are in dilemma as uncertainty still looms large. Hence it would be a stock specific market till the direction is clear. There were head and shoulder formations observed in many individual stocks traded in F&O Segment. The indications are of a reasonably big correction in next month, strictly going by the charts. However, there is an event risk pending as the budget is going to be presented on 26th of this month. Hence it is advisable to stay away from the markets and do not carry many positions.

SELL
EDUCOMP @ 720-725 Tgt 680 SL 740
IDEA @ 59-59.50 Tgt 54, 52 SL 60
IFCI @ 50-50.50 Tgt 46.00 SL 51
FSL @ 30.2-30.4 Tgt 27.20 SL 31
INDIAINFO @ 114-115 Tgt 107 SL 118
RELCAPITAL @ 760-765 Tgt 720 SL 775
HCC @ 134-135 Tgt 128 SL 137
RELINFRA Below 990 Tgt 940 SL 1020