Indices started falling after two weeks of rally. Nifty faced resistance above 3100 and retraced. Both the major indices lost more than 7% during the week. Almost all sectors lost ground prominent among them were realty, Auto, Fertilizer, IT and Cement. Aditya Birla Nuvo, Cairn and Ranbaxy managed to end in green while Unitech, HCL Tech, M&M, SAIL, Satyam, Tata Motors, Reliance Infra, ICICI Bank, DLF, Sterlite, Reliance Power and Hindalco were the major Nifty losers all losing more than 10% during the week.
Nifty may find support around 2600-2620 and it may remain a crucial support zone for next couple of weeks. On the upside it may find it difficult to breach 2950. One should exit all long positions at every opportunity and remain short in the immediate to short term. The results season is about to begin and this quarter is all set to disappoint. Stay short.
SELL
PFC @ 123-125 Tgt 118, 111 SL 127
BHEL @ 1315-1320 Tgt 1260, 1220 SL 1340
Kesoram Inds @ 144-145 Tgt 136, 129 SL 150
Reliance Power @ 114-115 Tgt 108, 102 SL 119
United Spirits @ 900-905 Tgt 860, 825 SL 925
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Dated 22nd December, 2008
Markets moved up for second consecutive week with good volumes. Weak Oil prices, strong global markets, falling interest rates and fast declining inflation helped markets stage a strong bounce back. Participation was seen across sectors but prominent among them were Realty, Banking, Power, Cement and Technology. Unitech and HCL Tech were at top of the gainers list with 30% rise. Siemens, Ambuja Cement, ICICI Bank, Grasim, HDFC Bank, Powergrid, Suzlon, M&M, DLF, BPCL, PNB, NTPC, HUL and ONGC were other gainers, all richer by anywhere between 10-20%. Satyam Computer, RCOM, HDFC and Reliance Infra were among the top losers.
We are heading into the crucial week as far as the market direction is concerned. We feel that markets and many individual stocks will create short/medium term peaks during this week and start reversal. We might see some short covering rallies before this expiry on Wednesday. Nifty faces resistance at 3160 and further at 3250. We recommend traders to build aggressive short positions for January by the end of the week and maintain positions till January expiry. A sharp correction to the levels of 2600 is not ruled out in January. Get out of all long positions by the end of this week. A trader should have open short positions by the end of the week. The fall that we witness in January will be steep and hence do not book profits on short positions in a hurry.
SELL
GT Offshore Sell @ 238-240 Tgt 218, 204 SL 244
Jindal Saw Sell @ 246-248 Tgt 231, 212 SL 253
HDFC Sell @ 1555-1560 Tgt 1460, 1400 SL 1580
Aban Lloyd Sell @ 760-762 Tgt 695, 660 SL 776
We are heading into the crucial week as far as the market direction is concerned. We feel that markets and many individual stocks will create short/medium term peaks during this week and start reversal. We might see some short covering rallies before this expiry on Wednesday. Nifty faces resistance at 3160 and further at 3250. We recommend traders to build aggressive short positions for January by the end of the week and maintain positions till January expiry. A sharp correction to the levels of 2600 is not ruled out in January. Get out of all long positions by the end of this week. A trader should have open short positions by the end of the week. The fall that we witness in January will be steep and hence do not book profits on short positions in a hurry.
SELL
GT Offshore Sell @ 238-240 Tgt 218, 204 SL 244
Jindal Saw Sell @ 246-248 Tgt 231, 212 SL 253
HDFC Sell @ 1555-1560 Tgt 1460, 1400 SL 1580
Aban Lloyd Sell @ 760-762 Tgt 695, 660 SL 776
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Dated 15th December, 2008
Both the major indices gained about 8% during the week amid very favourable market breadth. Many beaten down mid cap stocks witnessed huge short covering and added substantial open interest during the week. Stocks across all sectors participated in the rally except IT. Technology as a sector didn’t do too well and CNX IT index lost 2.8% week on week. DLF was the biggest Nifty gainer followed by RCOM, Suzlon, Sterlite, Tata Steel, Tata Communication, Unitech, Reliance, RPL, M&M, ACC and ICICI Bank all adding 15-25% during the week. HCL Tech, TCS, Dr Reddy, Power Grid and Cipla were among the losers.
All Asian markets opened with 2-5% gains. Nifty might test 3000 levels at the opening and it is interesting to see if it manages to hold these levels. If it manages to hold the opening gains we might see Nifty test 3160 during the week. A close above 2940 should be a short term stoploss for Nifty short positions. We still hold the view that markets in the medium term may see far lower levels from here and we might see a bearish trend continue for at least 2-4 quarters. Open Interest addition on Nifty indicates a strong close this month and hence we recommend traders to build aggressive short positions near December month expiry. Few stocks like Mphasis, GT Offshore, Power Grid, Financial Technologies, Central Bank, Jindal Saw look weak for the week.
All Asian markets opened with 2-5% gains. Nifty might test 3000 levels at the opening and it is interesting to see if it manages to hold these levels. If it manages to hold the opening gains we might see Nifty test 3160 during the week. A close above 2940 should be a short term stoploss for Nifty short positions. We still hold the view that markets in the medium term may see far lower levels from here and we might see a bearish trend continue for at least 2-4 quarters. Open Interest addition on Nifty indicates a strong close this month and hence we recommend traders to build aggressive short positions near December month expiry. Few stocks like Mphasis, GT Offshore, Power Grid, Financial Technologies, Central Bank, Jindal Saw look weak for the week.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Markets were trading mixed for the week with favorable market breadth. Both the major indices Sensex and Nifty lost close to one and a half percentage points but the action was outside the index. Many mid-cap stocks moved significantly as is reflected in the Nifty Junior and Midcap indices, which gained 4.86% and 1.38% respectively. IT stocks were the clear losers during the week. Realty and Infrastructure stocks were among the major gainers ahead of the announcement of fiscal package. Unitech, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Zee, Grasim and ACC were among the major gainers while HCL Tech, M&M, Infosys, Maruti, Cipla, Satyam, ONGC, TCS and Sun Pharma were on the losing side.
The clues going into the next week are heartening. The weekend fiscal initiatives, RBI’s REPO rate cut and the strong global markets may script a positive gap up opening on our markets. Markets may start buoyant but that is unlikely to last for a long time. 2810-2830 is a strong short-term resistance on Nifty and it may find it difficult to breach and close above this band. Multiple resistances above 2900 make it even more difficult for a rally to sustain. On the downside expect supports at 2620 and further at 2500. We expect selling pressure during the later half of the week which makes risk reward favourable to a Short trader. It is a good opportunity for investors to exit their holdings and for traders to initiate short positions. The long-term trend is clearly “Down” and a “U-Turn” looks near to impossible. Do not get tempted to buy. Sell at rises with medium term perspective.
SELL
Cairn India @ 136-138 Tgt 128, 119 SL 141
Bank of Baroda @ 254-256 Tgt 241, 227 SL 262
Idea @ 51-52 Tgt 46, 43.50 SL 54
LIC Housing Fin @ 222-224 Tgt 198, 184 SL 227
Jindal Steel @ 850-860 Tgt 780, 720 SL 880
Rolta @ 149-150 Tgt 136, 123 SL 153
http://www.orkut.com/Community.aspx?cmm=17682920
www.sunilkdaga.blogspot.com
The clues going into the next week are heartening. The weekend fiscal initiatives, RBI’s REPO rate cut and the strong global markets may script a positive gap up opening on our markets. Markets may start buoyant but that is unlikely to last for a long time. 2810-2830 is a strong short-term resistance on Nifty and it may find it difficult to breach and close above this band. Multiple resistances above 2900 make it even more difficult for a rally to sustain. On the downside expect supports at 2620 and further at 2500. We expect selling pressure during the later half of the week which makes risk reward favourable to a Short trader. It is a good opportunity for investors to exit their holdings and for traders to initiate short positions. The long-term trend is clearly “Down” and a “U-Turn” looks near to impossible. Do not get tempted to buy. Sell at rises with medium term perspective.
SELL
Cairn India @ 136-138 Tgt 128, 119 SL 141
Bank of Baroda @ 254-256 Tgt 241, 227 SL 262
Idea @ 51-52 Tgt 46, 43.50 SL 54
LIC Housing Fin @ 222-224 Tgt 198, 184 SL 227
Jindal Steel @ 850-860 Tgt 780, 720 SL 880
Rolta @ 149-150 Tgt 136, 123 SL 153
http://www.orkut.com/Community.aspx?cmm=17682920
www.sunilkdaga.blogspot.com
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Dated 1st December, 2008
Markets withstood the big surprise attack on Mumbai and managed to hold. The F&O expiry was smooth and there was no big volatility. Over all the week belonged to stock specific moves where stocks across sectors showed moves on both sides. Hero Honda, TCS, HDFC Bank, Cipla, Sterlite, Bharti, BPCL, Reliance Power, BHEL and NTPC were the top Nifty gainers. Unitech, Siemens, Suzlon, M&M, Ambuja Cement and SBI figured among the top losers.
Though there was resilience to the biggest ever terrorist attack on India, the long term impact would be worse to say the least. The news flow could only worsen going forward. Looking at the veracity of the attack we just tend to feel that we might see some aggression from our side on Pakistan very soon. Though this is just a possibility, markets should certainly discount this chance sooner or later. One should not be caught on the long side though markets might put some gains in the immediate term. 2800 on Nifty provides a good resistance and further resistance comes around 2940. Nifty might try and test 2940 in short term and one should look at building short positions around these levels. For the time being, do not build aggressive short positions and wait for higher levels. Avoid long and trade shorts with caution.
SELL
Sterlite Industries @ 250-252 Tgt 222, 208 SL 260
TCS @ 568-570 Tgt 536, 522 SL 580
NTPC @ 163-165 Tgt 156, 151 SL 167
Hindustan Zinc @ 330-333 Tgt 301, 288 SL 340
Sail @ 70-71 Tgt 63, 59 SL 72
Though there was resilience to the biggest ever terrorist attack on India, the long term impact would be worse to say the least. The news flow could only worsen going forward. Looking at the veracity of the attack we just tend to feel that we might see some aggression from our side on Pakistan very soon. Though this is just a possibility, markets should certainly discount this chance sooner or later. One should not be caught on the long side though markets might put some gains in the immediate term. 2800 on Nifty provides a good resistance and further resistance comes around 2940. Nifty might try and test 2940 in short term and one should look at building short positions around these levels. For the time being, do not build aggressive short positions and wait for higher levels. Avoid long and trade shorts with caution.
SELL
Sterlite Industries @ 250-252 Tgt 222, 208 SL 260
TCS @ 568-570 Tgt 536, 522 SL 580
NTPC @ 163-165 Tgt 156, 151 SL 167
Hindustan Zinc @ 330-333 Tgt 301, 288 SL 340
Sail @ 70-71 Tgt 63, 59 SL 72
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Dated 25th November, 2008
Both the major indices Sensex and Nifty lost close to 5% and 4% respectively during the week. It would have been much worse but for the startling display of short covering on Friday. Markets were weak through out the week and recovered sharply during the last hours of trading on Friday. The market breadth was extremely negative. Almost all sectors took the hit except some pharma and cement counters. Ambuja Cement, BPCL, Zee, Ranbaxy and NTPC were among the Nifty gainers while Unitech, Tata Communication, DLF, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Power and HDFC were the top losers.
The sharp bounce back that we saw on Friday is not likely to last for long. Any sharp rise is an opportunity and one should use these opportunities to exit and build short positions. The fall is not likely to be abated at this juncture and we might not see any big upside in the immediate term. Nifty may at best try to climb to 2800 where it finds resistance before F&O expiry but it is almost certainly comeback to the supports of 2500 and 2360. A short trader must take his chances and maintain short positions. Markets are adjusting the excesses and trying to come back to what is being called fair valuation. Stocks are on their way down and are yet to stop. Buying should be contemplated only when the fall comes to an end and markets consolidate for a reasonable amount of time, which is a long drawn process. In all probability, we are not going to see that happen any time soon. This bear phase may remain for a time longer than expected. Do not ponder over buying but try to exit.
“Trade what you see and not what you think”.
SELL
JSW Steel Sell @ 210-212 Tgt 184, 170 SL 217
National Aluminium Sell @ 180-182 Tgt 168, 160 SL 190
Indian Hotel Sell @ 49-49.50 Tgt 45, 43 SL 50
Cairn India Sell @ 141-142 Tgt 132, 125 SL 145
SBI Sell @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1120, 1070 SL 1245
HDFC Sell @ 1450-1460 Tgt 1320, 1200 SL 1500
The sharp bounce back that we saw on Friday is not likely to last for long. Any sharp rise is an opportunity and one should use these opportunities to exit and build short positions. The fall is not likely to be abated at this juncture and we might not see any big upside in the immediate term. Nifty may at best try to climb to 2800 where it finds resistance before F&O expiry but it is almost certainly comeback to the supports of 2500 and 2360. A short trader must take his chances and maintain short positions. Markets are adjusting the excesses and trying to come back to what is being called fair valuation. Stocks are on their way down and are yet to stop. Buying should be contemplated only when the fall comes to an end and markets consolidate for a reasonable amount of time, which is a long drawn process. In all probability, we are not going to see that happen any time soon. This bear phase may remain for a time longer than expected. Do not ponder over buying but try to exit.
“Trade what you see and not what you think”.
SELL
JSW Steel Sell @ 210-212 Tgt 184, 170 SL 217
National Aluminium Sell @ 180-182 Tgt 168, 160 SL 190
Indian Hotel Sell @ 49-49.50 Tgt 45, 43 SL 50
Cairn India Sell @ 141-142 Tgt 132, 125 SL 145
SBI Sell @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1120, 1070 SL 1245
HDFC Sell @ 1450-1460 Tgt 1320, 1200 SL 1500
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Markets tumbled once again after 2 weeks of gains. The fall was again across the board and none of the sectors was spared. There were no places to hide since even defensives like FMCG are not able to hold the their prices. There were no notable gainers from Nifty except Nalco, which added more than 6% during the week. Suzlon, Zee, SAIL, Unitech, Tata Motors, DLF, ACC, M&M, L&T, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the major losers.
As has been our view since past 2-3 months, markets don’t look too promising for the foreseeable future. Things may become worse than what is being talked about and hence we might not see any recovery in the markets. Supports exist for Nifty at 2600 and further at 2520. It may find it difficult to breach 3000. We have been witnessing sharp bounce backs every now and then but we feel that from the current point even bounce backs would not be sharp. So a short trader carries with him lesser amount of risk and more rewards. We recommend medium and long term investors to liquidate their holdings and stay in cash. The fall may not stop here but it cannot go on like this forever. Hence traders should make the most of this situation and try to make bucks as quickly as possible. We may see the pace of the fall subsiding after a while but not the actual fall. Investors are still not willing to accept this fact since we haven’t witnessed it so far, but we see a strong possibility of this phase remaining for a long time.
SELL
Siemens @ 300-302 Tgt 278, 264 SL 314
Rolta @ 170-172 Tgt 154, 146 SL 175
IDFC @ 66-67 Tgt 62, 57 SL 71
Cipla @ 191-192 Tgt 181, 174 SL 195
National Aluminium @ 181-183 Tgt 168, 150 SL 185
Praj Industries @ 73-74 Tgt 66, 61 SL 76
ICICI Bank @ 408-410 Tgt 376, 333 SL 420
As has been our view since past 2-3 months, markets don’t look too promising for the foreseeable future. Things may become worse than what is being talked about and hence we might not see any recovery in the markets. Supports exist for Nifty at 2600 and further at 2520. It may find it difficult to breach 3000. We have been witnessing sharp bounce backs every now and then but we feel that from the current point even bounce backs would not be sharp. So a short trader carries with him lesser amount of risk and more rewards. We recommend medium and long term investors to liquidate their holdings and stay in cash. The fall may not stop here but it cannot go on like this forever. Hence traders should make the most of this situation and try to make bucks as quickly as possible. We may see the pace of the fall subsiding after a while but not the actual fall. Investors are still not willing to accept this fact since we haven’t witnessed it so far, but we see a strong possibility of this phase remaining for a long time.
SELL
Siemens @ 300-302 Tgt 278, 264 SL 314
Rolta @ 170-172 Tgt 154, 146 SL 175
IDFC @ 66-67 Tgt 62, 57 SL 71
Cipla @ 191-192 Tgt 181, 174 SL 195
National Aluminium @ 181-183 Tgt 168, 150 SL 185
Praj Industries @ 73-74 Tgt 66, 61 SL 76
ICICI Bank @ 408-410 Tgt 376, 333 SL 420
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