Markets opened the week on a weak note and traded weak for the first half but saw a late recovery to close with week on week gains. Both Sensex and Nifty gained just over a percentage points over the week. All the major indices were marginally in red week over week. All sectors witnessed mixed action. Cement, banking and metals were the sectors, which saw selling pressure. Ranbaxy, HDFC, BHEL, NALCO and ABB were the top Nifty gainers while Cipla, Unitech, Reliance Infra, Tata Motors, ACC, Reliance Capital and Sterlite were the major losers.
The cues going into the next week are positive. US and European markets witnessed a rally on Friday and Asian markets are trading strong this morning. Nifty faces huge resistance in the zone of 4600-4620 in the immediate term. We expect Nifty to honor this resistance and retrace. Supports are identified at 4450 and further at 4360. A close above 4600 is crucial for this rally to sustain. It is expiry week and we may see the volatility increase. The global markets need to be watched closely since all asset classes are moving in tandem globally irrespective of broader fundamentals. For the time being, trade stock specific with adequate stoplosses.
BUY
LITL @ 408-410 Tgt 440, SL 400
ABAN @ 1155-1160 Tgt 1220, 1300 SL 1120
YESBANK @ 168-170 Tgt 182, 190 SL 164
IVRCLINFRA @ 333-336 Tgt 380 SL 325
VOLTAS @ CMP Tgt 160 SL 137
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Markets staged a strong bounce back after initial weakness and ended the week with good gains. The market breadth was positive and all mid-cap and sectoral indices were up more than 2% WoW. Technology, Pharma, Oil & Gas and Metals were sectors which were in lime light. Ranbaxy, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Unitech, DLF and GAIL were the top nifty gainers while M&M, HUL, ACC and Ambuja Cements figured among the top losers.
The global markets are trading weak this morning and the sentiment going into the week is negative. We may see a strong down ward movement and a consolidation with a downward bias going forward. 4600 is a strong resistance and hence only a close above this level could turn things for good. 4400-4420 is a strong short term support zone. A move below this level could take the markets down sharply towards 4000. Trade stock specific with strict stoplosses.
BUY
GAIL @ 334-335 Tgt 360 SL 328
EKC @ 188-190 Tgt 212 SL 180
TATACHEM @ 250-252 Tgt 271, 292 SL 244
SELL
IDEA @ 78-79 Tgt 76, 72.5 SL 81
HINDUNILVR @ 260-262 Tgt 249, 242 SL 266
TATACOMM @ CMP Tgt 478, 460 SL 515
ASHOKLEY @ 37-37.20 Tgt 34.5, 32 SL 38
YESBANK @ 160-161 Tgt 151 SL 164
The global markets are trading weak this morning and the sentiment going into the week is negative. We may see a strong down ward movement and a consolidation with a downward bias going forward. 4600 is a strong resistance and hence only a close above this level could turn things for good. 4400-4420 is a strong short term support zone. A move below this level could take the markets down sharply towards 4000. Trade stock specific with strict stoplosses.
BUY
GAIL @ 334-335 Tgt 360 SL 328
EKC @ 188-190 Tgt 212 SL 180
TATACHEM @ 250-252 Tgt 271, 292 SL 244
SELL
IDEA @ 78-79 Tgt 76, 72.5 SL 81
HINDUNILVR @ 260-262 Tgt 249, 242 SL 266
TATACOMM @ CMP Tgt 478, 460 SL 515
ASHOKLEY @ 37-37.20 Tgt 34.5, 32 SL 38
YESBANK @ 160-161 Tgt 151 SL 164
Sunday, August 9, 2009
10-Aug-2009
Sensex and Nifty both lost by more than 3% WoW due to heavy selling pressure during the later half of the week. The fall was lead by Chinese markets, which were showing glimpse of collapse and the sentiment percolated to some of the other markets. However, positive non-farm payroll data from US pushed the markets higher on Friday and the sentiment going into the next week is positive.
The global cues are positive and we may see positivism at the opening. Weak monsoon on the fundamental front is a big worry and hence that may weigh high on Indian equities in the medium term. 4600 is a big resistance for nifty in the immediate term and it finds support at 4420. One has to take stock specific exposure and trade with strict stoplosses.
BUY
LICHSGFIN @ CMP Tgt 660 SL 610
HINDZINC @ 735-740 Tgt 765, 800 SL 720
PATNI @ 342-345 Tgt 362 SL 338
LITL @ 400-402 Tgt 422, 441 SL 390
The global cues are positive and we may see positivism at the opening. Weak monsoon on the fundamental front is a big worry and hence that may weigh high on Indian equities in the medium term. 4600 is a big resistance for nifty in the immediate term and it finds support at 4420. One has to take stock specific exposure and trade with strict stoplosses.
BUY
LICHSGFIN @ CMP Tgt 660 SL 610
HINDZINC @ 735-740 Tgt 765, 800 SL 720
PATNI @ 342-345 Tgt 362 SL 338
LITL @ 400-402 Tgt 422, 441 SL 390
Sunday, August 2, 2009
03-Aug-2009
Sensex and Nifty gained 1.9% and 1.5% respectively lead by technology and mid-cap stocks. The market breadth was positive with average gain of close to 3% on F&O segment. The rally was driven by better than expected corporate earnings, strong global markets and rallies in commodities and other asset classes.
The sentiment is clearly bullish but we may see stock specific directional movement going forward. It is a buy on dips markets with a day close stop loss on Nifty below 4400. Support and Resistances on Nifty exist at 4540 and 4800. Nifty may take support below 4600 and make an attempt towards 4800 in the coming week. The situation on the fundamental front does not look too rosy as it is made out to be but as long as the markets are trending, let us be with the markets. It is a traders’ market and hence positions should be initiated with trading perspective with strict target objectives and stop losses.
BUY
BANKBARODA @ 430-432 Tgt 450 SL 425
NATIONALUM @ CMP Tgt 360 SL 290
PUNJLLOYD @ 240-242 Tgt 275 SL 236
CANBK @ 282-284 Tgt 320 SL 275
FINANTECH @ 1400-1410 Tgt 1600 SL 1370
APIL @ 520-525 Tgt 590 SL 510
The sentiment is clearly bullish but we may see stock specific directional movement going forward. It is a buy on dips markets with a day close stop loss on Nifty below 4400. Support and Resistances on Nifty exist at 4540 and 4800. Nifty may take support below 4600 and make an attempt towards 4800 in the coming week. The situation on the fundamental front does not look too rosy as it is made out to be but as long as the markets are trending, let us be with the markets. It is a traders’ market and hence positions should be initiated with trading perspective with strict target objectives and stop losses.
BUY
BANKBARODA @ 430-432 Tgt 450 SL 425
NATIONALUM @ CMP Tgt 360 SL 290
PUNJLLOYD @ 240-242 Tgt 275 SL 236
CANBK @ 282-284 Tgt 320 SL 275
FINANTECH @ 1400-1410 Tgt 1600 SL 1370
APIL @ 520-525 Tgt 590 SL 510
Sunday, July 12, 2009
13-July-2009
Markets tanked after the announcement of the Budget. There was nothing much that can be done since the FM was struck between the devil and the deep blue sea. When markets build optimism based on illusions and not on reality, such reactions are bound to happen. Both sensex and nifty lost close to 10% week on week as almost every sector gave in to the selling pressure. ITC, Hero Honda, Ambuja Cement were among the top Nifty gainers while Suzlon, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infra, Unitech, DLF, ICICI Bank, R Com, Tata Steel, L&T, Siemens, Axis Bank, R Power and SBI lost anywhere between 15-30% week on week.
The fundamentals of the economy are certainly looking bleak. For me the major problems are unemployment, the security threat from our neighbours and the effect of global recession on India. There are talks of green shoots sprouting up all around but we are no way near to a ‘U’ shaped recovery. The rises that we’ve seen do not support any recovery theory. There are already rumours in the air that a downgrade on India is likely in the immediate future. Every positive news must be sold into and we do not expect the markets to stage a very strong recovery from these levels. The momentum would remain on the downside in the short to medium term. Our markets may open with a gap down going by the global cues but we may see recovery towards 4000. On the upside 4020 is a strong resistance and any move above 4000-4200 should be utilized to create medium term short positions. Sell on rises and maintain short positions. Avoid any long positions. Sell not for today, always sell for tomorrow.
The fundamentals of the economy are certainly looking bleak. For me the major problems are unemployment, the security threat from our neighbours and the effect of global recession on India. There are talks of green shoots sprouting up all around but we are no way near to a ‘U’ shaped recovery. The rises that we’ve seen do not support any recovery theory. There are already rumours in the air that a downgrade on India is likely in the immediate future. Every positive news must be sold into and we do not expect the markets to stage a very strong recovery from these levels. The momentum would remain on the downside in the short to medium term. Our markets may open with a gap down going by the global cues but we may see recovery towards 4000. On the upside 4020 is a strong resistance and any move above 4000-4200 should be utilized to create medium term short positions. Sell on rises and maintain short positions. Avoid any long positions. Sell not for today, always sell for tomorrow.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Dated 6th June, 2009
Markets were trading cautious throughout the week and ended the week with slender gains. Both Sensex and Nifty gained over a percentage points while Bank Nifty closed up with more than 2% week on week gains. Tata Steel, ONGC, GAIL and BPCL were the prominent gainers in Nifty and Zee, Axis Bank, Sail, HDFC, PNB and M&M were other gainers. Suzlon and Tata Motors were among the worst performers with more than 10% erosion week on week. Rcom, ACC and Hindalco were among the other losers.
Markets took some positives from the Railway budget and moved higher on the last trading day of the week. The big event is due on Monday - The Union Budget. The budget this year is a very crucial event since this is the first budget of the UPA’s second term and would provide us the broad intent on policy and direction. One must be cautious and avoid trading just before the budget. The indications so far point towards a clear long-term vision by looking at the measures taken on educational reforms and the intention to provide national ID cards. The big question still is to see whether the reforms process could continue with out much tinkering with the basic tax structure in the wake of falling revenues due to global economic meltdown and the indications of scanty rainfall for this Kharif season. If one excludes the first couple of days of this week, the overall direction of the equity markets would still be dictated by the global factors. We expect to see some stock/sector specific rallies going forward but the overall direction would remain bearish.
Markets took some positives from the Railway budget and moved higher on the last trading day of the week. The big event is due on Monday - The Union Budget. The budget this year is a very crucial event since this is the first budget of the UPA’s second term and would provide us the broad intent on policy and direction. One must be cautious and avoid trading just before the budget. The indications so far point towards a clear long-term vision by looking at the measures taken on educational reforms and the intention to provide national ID cards. The big question still is to see whether the reforms process could continue with out much tinkering with the basic tax structure in the wake of falling revenues due to global economic meltdown and the indications of scanty rainfall for this Kharif season. If one excludes the first couple of days of this week, the overall direction of the equity markets would still be dictated by the global factors. We expect to see some stock/sector specific rallies going forward but the overall direction would remain bearish.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Dated 22nd June, 2009
Sensex ended its relentless rally and closed in the red after 14 weeks of WoW gains. Sensex lost 4.7% while Nifty went down by 5.9%. The mid cap indices moved lower in line with the broader markets. Market breadth was negative for almost the entire week. Banking stocks were among the gainers while all other sectors corrected. PNB, Reliance Infra, Cipla and SBI were the top nifty gainers. Reliance was the most prominent loser with a fall of more than 13%. Sterlite, Hindalco, ACC, NTPC, SAIL and ONGC were the other Nifty stocks, which lost more than 10%.
The weakness is visible across all sectors. The global cues suggest a strong opening here in our markets but the rises from here are not likely to sustain. 4400 on Nifty acts as a stiff resistance for immediate term while support exists at 4200. It may try to trade and consolidate in this band for a couple of days before breaking out. Long positions must be avoided at any juncture and stock specific short positions are recommended with strict stop losses. Stocks like Union Bank, Central Bank, Mphasis, LIC Housing Finance and sugar stocks Renuka, Bajaj Hindustan are looking strong. Hence avoid these counters and longs can be contemplated with a strict short term view in these stocks. Cement, Metals and Infra stocks show weakness. One should utilize rises to create short positions in these counters with predefined stoplosses. Sell Lupin, Sterlite, ACC, Rajesh Exports, FSL, Wockhardt and Karnataka Bank for immediate gains.
The weakness is visible across all sectors. The global cues suggest a strong opening here in our markets but the rises from here are not likely to sustain. 4400 on Nifty acts as a stiff resistance for immediate term while support exists at 4200. It may try to trade and consolidate in this band for a couple of days before breaking out. Long positions must be avoided at any juncture and stock specific short positions are recommended with strict stop losses. Stocks like Union Bank, Central Bank, Mphasis, LIC Housing Finance and sugar stocks Renuka, Bajaj Hindustan are looking strong. Hence avoid these counters and longs can be contemplated with a strict short term view in these stocks. Cement, Metals and Infra stocks show weakness. One should utilize rises to create short positions in these counters with predefined stoplosses. Sell Lupin, Sterlite, ACC, Rajesh Exports, FSL, Wockhardt and Karnataka Bank for immediate gains.
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