Sunday, December 28, 2008

Dated 29th December, 2008

Indices started falling after two weeks of rally. Nifty faced resistance above 3100 and retraced. Both the major indices lost more than 7% during the week. Almost all sectors lost ground prominent among them were realty, Auto, Fertilizer, IT and Cement. Aditya Birla Nuvo, Cairn and Ranbaxy managed to end in green while Unitech, HCL Tech, M&M, SAIL, Satyam, Tata Motors, Reliance Infra, ICICI Bank, DLF, Sterlite, Reliance Power and Hindalco were the major Nifty losers all losing more than 10% during the week.

Nifty may find support around 2600-2620 and it may remain a crucial support zone for next couple of weeks. On the upside it may find it difficult to breach 2950. One should exit all long positions at every opportunity and remain short in the immediate to short term. The results season is about to begin and this quarter is all set to disappoint. Stay short.

PFC @ 123-125 Tgt 118, 111 SL 127
BHEL @ 1315-1320 Tgt 1260, 1220 SL 1340
Kesoram Inds @ 144-145 Tgt 136, 129 SL 150
Reliance Power @ 114-115 Tgt 108, 102 SL 119
United Spirits @ 900-905 Tgt 860, 825 SL 925

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Dated 22nd December, 2008

Markets moved up for second consecutive week with good volumes. Weak Oil prices, strong global markets, falling interest rates and fast declining inflation helped markets stage a strong bounce back. Participation was seen across sectors but prominent among them were Realty, Banking, Power, Cement and Technology. Unitech and HCL Tech were at top of the gainers list with 30% rise. Siemens, Ambuja Cement, ICICI Bank, Grasim, HDFC Bank, Powergrid, Suzlon, M&M, DLF, BPCL, PNB, NTPC, HUL and ONGC were other gainers, all richer by anywhere between 10-20%. Satyam Computer, RCOM, HDFC and Reliance Infra were among the top losers.

We are heading into the crucial week as far as the market direction is concerned. We feel that markets and many individual stocks will create short/medium term peaks during this week and start reversal. We might see some short covering rallies before this expiry on Wednesday. Nifty faces resistance at 3160 and further at 3250. We recommend traders to build aggressive short positions for January by the end of the week and maintain positions till January expiry. A sharp correction to the levels of 2600 is not ruled out in January. Get out of all long positions by the end of this week. A trader should have open short positions by the end of the week. The fall that we witness in January will be steep and hence do not book profits on short positions in a hurry.

GT Offshore Sell @ 238-240 Tgt 218, 204 SL 244
Jindal Saw Sell @ 246-248 Tgt 231, 212 SL 253
HDFC Sell @ 1555-1560 Tgt 1460, 1400 SL 1580
Aban Lloyd Sell @ 760-762 Tgt 695, 660 SL 776

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Dated 15th December, 2008

Both the major indices gained about 8% during the week amid very favourable market breadth. Many beaten down mid cap stocks witnessed huge short covering and added substantial open interest during the week. Stocks across all sectors participated in the rally except IT. Technology as a sector didn’t do too well and CNX IT index lost 2.8% week on week. DLF was the biggest Nifty gainer followed by RCOM, Suzlon, Sterlite, Tata Steel, Tata Communication, Unitech, Reliance, RPL, M&M, ACC and ICICI Bank all adding 15-25% during the week. HCL Tech, TCS, Dr Reddy, Power Grid and Cipla were among the losers.

All Asian markets opened with 2-5% gains. Nifty might test 3000 levels at the opening and it is interesting to see if it manages to hold these levels. If it manages to hold the opening gains we might see Nifty test 3160 during the week. A close above 2940 should be a short term stoploss for Nifty short positions. We still hold the view that markets in the medium term may see far lower levels from here and we might see a bearish trend continue for at least 2-4 quarters. Open Interest addition on Nifty indicates a strong close this month and hence we recommend traders to build aggressive short positions near December month expiry. Few stocks like Mphasis, GT Offshore, Power Grid, Financial Technologies, Central Bank, Jindal Saw look weak for the week.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Markets were trading mixed for the week with favorable market breadth. Both the major indices Sensex and Nifty lost close to one and a half percentage points but the action was outside the index. Many mid-cap stocks moved significantly as is reflected in the Nifty Junior and Midcap indices, which gained 4.86% and 1.38% respectively. IT stocks were the clear losers during the week. Realty and Infrastructure stocks were among the major gainers ahead of the announcement of fiscal package. Unitech, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Zee, Grasim and ACC were among the major gainers while HCL Tech, M&M, Infosys, Maruti, Cipla, Satyam, ONGC, TCS and Sun Pharma were on the losing side.

The clues going into the next week are heartening. The weekend fiscal initiatives, RBI’s REPO rate cut and the strong global markets may script a positive gap up opening on our markets. Markets may start buoyant but that is unlikely to last for a long time. 2810-2830 is a strong short-term resistance on Nifty and it may find it difficult to breach and close above this band. Multiple resistances above 2900 make it even more difficult for a rally to sustain. On the downside expect supports at 2620 and further at 2500. We expect selling pressure during the later half of the week which makes risk reward favourable to a Short trader. It is a good opportunity for investors to exit their holdings and for traders to initiate short positions. The long-term trend is clearly “Down” and a “U-Turn” looks near to impossible. Do not get tempted to buy. Sell at rises with medium term perspective.

Cairn India @ 136-138 Tgt 128, 119 SL 141
Bank of Baroda @ 254-256 Tgt 241, 227 SL 262
Idea @ 51-52 Tgt 46, 43.50 SL 54
LIC Housing Fin @ 222-224 Tgt 198, 184 SL 227
Jindal Steel @ 850-860 Tgt 780, 720 SL 880
Rolta @ 149-150 Tgt 136, 123 SL 153

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Dated 1st December, 2008

Markets withstood the big surprise attack on Mumbai and managed to hold. The F&O expiry was smooth and there was no big volatility. Over all the week belonged to stock specific moves where stocks across sectors showed moves on both sides. Hero Honda, TCS, HDFC Bank, Cipla, Sterlite, Bharti, BPCL, Reliance Power, BHEL and NTPC were the top Nifty gainers. Unitech, Siemens, Suzlon, M&M, Ambuja Cement and SBI figured among the top losers.

Though there was resilience to the biggest ever terrorist attack on India, the long term impact would be worse to say the least. The news flow could only worsen going forward. Looking at the veracity of the attack we just tend to feel that we might see some aggression from our side on Pakistan very soon. Though this is just a possibility, markets should certainly discount this chance sooner or later. One should not be caught on the long side though markets might put some gains in the immediate term. 2800 on Nifty provides a good resistance and further resistance comes around 2940. Nifty might try and test 2940 in short term and one should look at building short positions around these levels. For the time being, do not build aggressive short positions and wait for higher levels. Avoid long and trade shorts with caution.


Sterlite Industries @ 250-252 Tgt 222, 208 SL 260
TCS @ 568-570 Tgt 536, 522 SL 580
NTPC @ 163-165 Tgt 156, 151 SL 167
Hindustan Zinc @ 330-333 Tgt 301, 288 SL 340
Sail @ 70-71 Tgt 63, 59 SL 72

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Dated 25th November, 2008

Both the major indices Sensex and Nifty lost close to 5% and 4% respectively during the week. It would have been much worse but for the startling display of short covering on Friday. Markets were weak through out the week and recovered sharply during the last hours of trading on Friday. The market breadth was extremely negative. Almost all sectors took the hit except some pharma and cement counters. Ambuja Cement, BPCL, Zee, Ranbaxy and NTPC were among the Nifty gainers while Unitech, Tata Communication, DLF, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Power and HDFC were the top losers.

The sharp bounce back that we saw on Friday is not likely to last for long. Any sharp rise is an opportunity and one should use these opportunities to exit and build short positions. The fall is not likely to be abated at this juncture and we might not see any big upside in the immediate term. Nifty may at best try to climb to 2800 where it finds resistance before F&O expiry but it is almost certainly comeback to the supports of 2500 and 2360. A short trader must take his chances and maintain short positions. Markets are adjusting the excesses and trying to come back to what is being called fair valuation. Stocks are on their way down and are yet to stop. Buying should be contemplated only when the fall comes to an end and markets consolidate for a reasonable amount of time, which is a long drawn process. In all probability, we are not going to see that happen any time soon. This bear phase may remain for a time longer than expected. Do not ponder over buying but try to exit.
“Trade what you see and not what you think”.

JSW Steel Sell @ 210-212 Tgt 184, 170 SL 217
National Aluminium Sell @ 180-182 Tgt 168, 160 SL 190
Indian Hotel Sell @ 49-49.50 Tgt 45, 43 SL 50
Cairn India Sell @ 141-142 Tgt 132, 125 SL 145
SBI Sell @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1120, 1070 SL 1245
HDFC Sell @ 1450-1460 Tgt 1320, 1200 SL 1500

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Markets tumbled once again after 2 weeks of gains. The fall was again across the board and none of the sectors was spared. There were no places to hide since even defensives like FMCG are not able to hold the their prices. There were no notable gainers from Nifty except Nalco, which added more than 6% during the week. Suzlon, Zee, SAIL, Unitech, Tata Motors, DLF, ACC, M&M, L&T, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the major losers.

As has been our view since past 2-3 months, markets don’t look too promising for the foreseeable future. Things may become worse than what is being talked about and hence we might not see any recovery in the markets. Supports exist for Nifty at 2600 and further at 2520. It may find it difficult to breach 3000. We have been witnessing sharp bounce backs every now and then but we feel that from the current point even bounce backs would not be sharp. So a short trader carries with him lesser amount of risk and more rewards. We recommend medium and long term investors to liquidate their holdings and stay in cash. The fall may not stop here but it cannot go on like this forever. Hence traders should make the most of this situation and try to make bucks as quickly as possible. We may see the pace of the fall subsiding after a while but not the actual fall. Investors are still not willing to accept this fact since we haven’t witnessed it so far, but we see a strong possibility of this phase remaining for a long time.

Siemens @ 300-302 Tgt 278, 264 SL 314
Rolta @ 170-172 Tgt 154, 146 SL 175
IDFC @ 66-67 Tgt 62, 57 SL 71
Cipla @ 191-192 Tgt 181, 174 SL 195
National Aluminium @ 181-183 Tgt 168, 150 SL 185
Praj Industries @ 73-74 Tgt 66, 61 SL 76
ICICI Bank @ 408-410 Tgt 376, 333 SL 420

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Markets witnessed short covering in many F&O counters but indices saw slender gains due to sharp cuts in Reliance and some technology stocks. Banking stocks were the major gainers during the week with a sharp rise of close to 12% on Bank Nifty. Reliance lost as much as 11% and was the one of the major Nifty losers along with Sterlite, Tata Steel, Satyam, Infosys and ABB. Suzlon was the top gainer with a 60% gain after the severe drubbing it got in the last couple of months. Ranbaxy, DLF, Reliance Infra, Reliance Power, PNB, BPCL, Siemens, ITC, SBI and ONGC gained anywhere between 10-30% during the week.

Asian markets saw huge rallies this morning and we may see a gap up opening at the beginning. Multiple resistances exist for Nifty between 3260-3400 and it is not likely that Nifty will breach this zone effortlessly. It is highly unlikely that equities witness across the board buying in the foreseeable future. We believe that the rises that we are seeing every now and then are due to short covering and not genuine long term buying. The valuations in many stocks are looking reasonable at this juncture but the fundamentals are changing as quickly. If the alacrity with which markets sold off during the past couple of months is any indication, we feel we are in for troubled times. Do not commit funds for buying equities and wait for at least another 2 quarters. The markets are here to stay and the stocks, which saw stupendous rallies during the past, are not going to be the same money making machines. Next time it will be a new set of stocks that will make money for investors. We recommend traders to create fresh shorts and hold.

Maruti Sell @ 610-614 Tgt 564, 540 SL 626
Rolta Sell @ 168-170 Tgt 146, 138 SL 174
Siemens Sell @ 307-310 Tgt 278, 250 SL 314
Bharti Airtel Sell @ 670-674 Tgt 618, 600 SL 685
Sun Pharma Sell @ 1230-1240 Tgt 1165, 1120 SL 1260
Zee Limited Sell @ 145-147 Tgt 136, 124 SL 150

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Dated 2nd November, 2008

Indices recovered sharply from the lows they touched on the first trading day of the week. It was a sharp recovery and both Sensex and Nifty recovered nearly 25-30% from the lows. The bounce back was lead by Metals, Technology, Auto, Infrastructure and Realty stocks. Almost all sectors made significant gains due to short covering. The most prominent among gainers is Reliance, which gained nearly 35% during the week. Unitech, Hindalco, Sterlite, Tata Communincation, ICICI Bank and M&M were the other gainers all richer by more than 25%. Sun Pharma, Ranbaxy, Suzlon, Dr Reddy and SBI were among the losers.

A bounce back was necessary for the markets and it happened at the most opportune time ie.. on Diwali. This pull back may take Nifty to 3100 and may be even 3400. On the downside 2760 provides a strong support and Nifty is likely to hold this support for a couple of weeks, at least. The overall sentiment going into the next week is positive and hence one should avoid taking short positions in the immediate future. We may witness stock specific movements this week and hence traders are recommended to cautiously trade long on dips. If Nifty manages to climb to the levels of 3400, it will be a right opportunity for medium term traders to start building short positions and even investors to get out of their holdings. Short term/intraday traders may go long on falls in specific stocks and medium term players should look for building short positions on sharp rallies. 3400 on Nifty is an ideal level for going short and hence we recommend traders to wait for a week of upside and then build medium term short positions.

Reliance Comm @ CMP Tgt 242, 258 SL 205
IVRCL Infra @ 83-85 Tgt 94, 100 SL 80
Tata Communication @ 455-460 Tgt 482, 500 SL 440
Chambal Fertilizer @ 43.50-44 Tgt 47, 50 SL 42.80
GTL Infra @ 37.8-38 Tgt 39.5, 41.20 SL 37

Satyam Computers @ 316-320 286 264 335
Sun Pharma @ 1170-1180 1040 1000 1200
GVK Power @ 12-12.30 10 8.60 13
Sterlite Inds @ 310-320 260 220 340

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Dated 27th October, 2008

Indices are trading at levels not seen in the last 3 years. Another week of selling saw Nifty losing close to 16% and Sensex losing around 13%. The last trading session was particularly severe and almost stocks from all sectors were sold off with out any support. This phase is arguably “the Worst” for our markets so far. Blue chips losing 20-50% in a single day is a rare sight to behold. Technology heavyweights were holding strong in an otherwise weak market and Realty was the worst loser. Uniteh, Suzlon, Nalco, M&M, Tata Motors, DLF, Tata Steel and Hindalco were the top Nifty losers while TCS, Satyam and Infosys were the top gainers.

A bounce back should be the least one could expect after a fall of such magnitude. Markets are defying all laws when it comes to this fall. There is no support at any level and hence one should not be very aggressive buyer at this point of time. The alacrity with which stocks are being sold off, suggests large-scale exodus of funds and not just liquidation. It might take a long time for these wounds to heal and hence one should stay away. We recommend even long term investors to stay away at this moment since the results for the coming quarters are likely to surprise even the most pessimistic estimates. There is a sense of gloom everywhere, which is likely to stay for more time. For the time being avoid the markets and traders make the most of it. Many stocks are likely to see more falls and hence short term short trades may be profitable. The best thing still is to stay away.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Dated 20th October, 2008

It was the heavy weights’ turn to contribute towards the downtrend. Biggies like Reliance, L&T, ONGC, RPL, Grasim, Ranbaxy, Nalco, Hindalco and Tata Steel fell anywhere between 10-25% week on week. The market breadth was not as terrible as we have seen in the recent past. There were sharp short covering rallies in some of the beaten down F&O stocks. PSU Banking stocks bucked the trend and remained resilient during this entire bear phase. ICICI Bank, PNB, Satyam Computer, GAIL and BPCL were among the top Nifty gainers.

Nifty may test the psychological 3000 mark this week achieving our target (given on 29th Sep) in just 20 days. We feel that the fall is likely to continue but it requires real guts to go short at this level. One must wait for a small pull back for going short. Going long is a strict “NO” since the overall trend is negative and is likely to remain so for atleast another 2 quarters. There is a possibility that we may witness some euphoria being created before Diwali, but still I feel it should be utilized to sell into stocks. Stocks like Bharti, Power Grid, Lupin, NTPC, Kotak Bank have broken their short term supports and are likely to see further downside. One should not be very aggressive while selling but remain short, never the less.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Dated 13th October, 2008

The selling just doesn’t seem like abating. It was THE WORST week on the exchanges in terms of index fall and erosion in market cap. After all we don’t very often see bluechips losing one fourth of their value in a single week, especially after a deep cut had already happened. It was more or less predicted by us and we were categorical when we said this on September the 29th and I quote - One must exit all long positions and wait for the opportunity to short the markets. We might see some soothing comments from the FM and statements from big corporates when they come out with second quarter results about the India growth story but that will only add to the pain – unquote. Amid the turmoil, PSU stocks were the ones, which were a bit resilient than the rest. Suzlon, Sterlite Inds, RCOM, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Unitech and Siemens were the stocks that lost more than 25% week on week.

It sends shivers down my spine when I hazard a guess that another such week is on cards. I have my own reasons for such a wild guess. A small pull back is not ruled out, though. Asian markets are recovering this morning and we might see a flat to gap up opening but markets are not likely to sustain rises. There is an age old saying that “Buy when the markets are panic” but I don’t buy this argument at this moment at least for I recommend buying when I see appreciation and not because stocks have fallen. History is being created everyday and I would surely hate to be caught on the wrong side. We recommend Medium and long term investors to wait for another two quarters before committing any funds. It is a ‘clear sell’ from our side and investors must take their own informed decisions before taking a call on the markets. We must have a stop loss for any trade and a close above 3500 should be the stoploss on Nifty. If one were to buy for a pull back I would rather recommend for a wait for the pull back and sell. If one has not already sold, I suggest cutting positions, if not short. A pull back is certainly possible but it is worth cutting positions than withstanding the pain. For the die-hard bulls, I could only recollect the old Raj Kapoor classic “Jaane kahaan gaye wo din….”.

Bharti Airtel @ 710-720 Tgt 660, 600 SL 740
Lupin @ 640-645 Tgt 565, 490 SL 660
PNB @ 480-484 Tgt 440, 400 SL 495
Titan @ 850-860 Tgt 760, 680 SL 880
Hero Honda @ CMP Tgt 770, 730 SL 840
Tata Communication @ 425-430 Tgt 385, 340 SL 440
NTPC @ 168-170 Tgt 159, 148 SL 174
SAIL @ 110-112 Tgt 98, 82 SL 114

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Dated 29th September, 2008

It was one of the horrible weeks that we saw for a long time. The market breadth was never so terrible in the recent past. Almost all sectors witnessed selling and many mid-cap stocks broke their respective long term supports and are looking extremely weak. The negative bias existed the entire week with two thirds of the stocks traded in the F&O segment losing between 5%-25%. Sun Pharma and Hero Honda were the only gainers in Nifty. Ranbaxy was the top nifty loser shedding nearly a quarter of its market capitalization. Wipro, Suzlon, Siemens, Unitech, Satyam Computer, Tata Motors, Hindalco, TCS, Infosys and ICICI Bank lost more than 10% week on week.

Markets are in a state of despair amid growing concerns of slow down. Markets always discount the future in advance and we see no exception this time. Markets are giving a clear indication of the times to come. The markets have corrected fair bit in the last week and a bounce back may be possible. Nifty may take support at 3860 and may give a small pull back rally. One must exit all long positions and wait for the opportunity to short the markets. We might see some soothing comments from the FM and statements from big corporates when they come out with second quarter results about the India growth story but that will only add to the pain. It is clear from the charts that the highs of January are history and let traders be not fooled by the ludicrous levels that we saw not very long ago. The downward momentum is here to stay and one must act fast and be not tempted by the valuations. The valuations in many stocks may look cheap but we are almost definitely going to see far more moderation in the valuations. The 61.2% retracement on Nifty comes around 3000, which doesn’t look impossible looking at the negative breakouts in most of the stocks. We see the possibility of the selling escalating as we move forward and we might see a protracted bear run. Utilize every rise to exit long positions and build shorts. There are a very few stocks which are depicting strength which include Tata Communications, Axis Bank, Glaxo, Hero Honda, Syndicate Bank, Lupin, HUL and Zee. Every other stock is looking weak and we recommend medium term traders to stay short and maintain short positions for another 2-4 quarters. SELL.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Dated 22nd September

Last week saw huge volatility due to turmoil in US financial market but the response in the end was more than heartening. We closed the week in positive after nearly touching the lows of July. Maruti, HDFC, Reliance, NTPC, SAIL and ONGC were the major Nifty gainers all gaining more than 5% week on week. Ranbaxy was the top loser followed by Satyam, Tata Steel, Dr Reddy, DLF, Zee and Hindalco.

All global markets surged on the weekend and the Asian markets opened with strong gains. In all probability we might see a gap up opening and Nifty may try to test the levels of 4400 this week. Irrespective of the global indices and the direction of our markets we might see stock specific movements this week due to the F&O expiry. There is a short build up in many counters and we might see sharp upside rallies in some stocks because of short covering. Trade with caution and utilize sharp rallies to exit long positions. 4560 and 4640 are very strong medium term resistances and hence any move on Nifty towards these levels should be an opportunity to exit and even initiate shorts.
Tata Communication @ 452-456 Tgt 474, 500 SL 444
Akruti City @ 895-900 Tgt 960, 1000 SL 875
Power Grid @ 94-95 Tgt 99, 101, 104 SL 92.50
Bharti Airtel @ 795-800 Tgt 836, 870 SL 785

Sobha Developers @ 221-223 Tgt 211, 202 SL 226
GVK Power @ 32.80-33 Tgt 31, 29.80 SL 33.50
ONGC @ 1110-1120 Tgt 1040, 1000 SL 1140
Punj Lloyd @ 322-324 Tgt 304, 286 SL 333
JSW Steel @ 620-624 Tgt 581 SL 634

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Dated 15th September, 2008

Markets opened the week with a huge gap on back of positive news flow but kept falling unabatedly thereafter. The selling was so severe that the markets lost all the gains of Monday and Sensex went on to close the week with a loss of over 3%. Almost all sectors recorded losses and the market breadth remained extremely negative. The worst performer on Nifty was Sterlite Industries, which lost more than 17% during the week. Reliance Infra, Reliance Industries, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Siemens and ICICI Bank were among the top Nifty losers. Nalco, Powergrid and Maruti managed to record some gains.

Nifty broke all near term supports decisively and closed below its 50 DMA. The next reliable support for Nifty comes only at 3860. We might, in all probability, see a weak gap down opening and one should exit ones long positions at the slightest opportunity. Fresh shorts may be initiated at rises. We might see buying emerge around 4140 and further at 4000 levels but Nifty might make an attempt to test the lows created in the month of July. On the upside, breaching 4420 looks a colossal task. Medium term traders should wait for the right time to go short. We recommended traders to progressively short Nifty on sharp bounce backs, with a day close stoploss of 4560 for a target objective of 3600 and with a time frame of 2-3 months.

Bajaj Auto @ 600-605 Tgt 640, 680 SL 580
Nagarjuna Const @ 122-123 Tgt 131, 136 SL 118
Mphasis @ 238-240 Tgt 253, 276 SL 234
Sesa Goa @ 132-133 Tgt 141, 144 SL 128

Reliance Industries @ CMP Tgt 1880, 1800 SL 1970
Sterlite Technologies @ 180-182 Tgt 170, 163 SL 185
Praj Industries @ CMP Tgt 161, 148 SL 170
Everonn Systems @ 470-475 Tgt 440, 400 SL 490
IDFC @ CMP Tgt 88, 79 SL 93

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Dated 8th September, 2008

Markets logged good gains on the on Tuesday and gave away the gains in the last 2 trading sessions. The sole reason for the fall was the weak global markets. Our markets were still resilient and trading with poise even on the days when indices were sharply down. Strength was clearly evident in our markets since there was no panic selling after the global sell off. Aviation, Oil and Gas and Banking stocks saw heavy buying interest while technology and sugar stocks were trading weak. Heavy weights Reliance, Bharti, HDFC, SAIL, Infoys and Cairn were the major losers while BPCL, SBI, GAIL, Ranbaxy, HCL Tech, PNB and ONGC were among the major gainers.

The clues, going into the next week, are strong enough to trigger a 5% rally in the indices. The NSG waiver was a clear positive supported by sharp rallies in the other Asian markets and weak crude. The platform couldn’t have been any better. Expect a strong gap up opening and a further rise. Nifty might make an attempt to breach the last week’s peak of 4520. The short term resistance for Nifty exists at 4560 and further at 4640. We might see strong resistance coming above 4600. If Nifty manages to breach and close above 4640 we might see another sharp rise to the levels of 4950. One should trade long as long as Nifty stays above 4280. For the week we expect a broad trading band of 4400-4640 on Nifty.

M&M @ CMP Tgt 604, 640 SL 580
TVS Motor Above 36 Tgt 41, 46 SL 34
Financial Tech @ 1460-1470 Tgt 1540, 1600 SL 1440
Mphasis @ 244-245 Tgt 253, 276 SL 240
Bajaj Auto @ 600-605 Tgt 625, 680 SL 580
Nagarjuna Const Buy @ 128-130 Tgt 136, 142 SL 124 mm=17682920

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Dated 1st September, 2008

Last week :
Markets gave a surprise rally on the first day of the new settlement with a more than 500 point rise in Sensex. Markets were trading weak throughout the week but wiped out all the losses with a stupendous rise on Friday to end the week with a percentage points on Sensex. Banking stocks were the top performers lead by HDFC Bank, which rose close to 8%. Bank Nifty rose more than 5% week on week. Satyam, PNB, M&M, HCL Tech and SAIL were the top Nifty gainers while Reliance was the major loser with a 4% fall.

Prediction for the Coming week :
The rally of Friday was a real surprise. Our markets out performed all other global markets at the slightest opportunity. Nifty finds support at 4280-4300 in the short term. Markets might open with a gap down but may recover from 4300. We expect the support of 4280-4300 to hold in the coming week, unless there is a very strong bad news waiting. 4400-4420 on Nifty looks a strong resistance and if it manages to breach this level 4500 and even 4580 looks a possibility. Exit long positions if Nifty drifts below 4280. Short positions may be contemplated below 4250 with a stoploss of 4300. For the week we see a trade band of 4280 – 4420 on Nifty.

Infosys Tech @ 1745-1750 Tgt 1805, 1840 SL 1730
Indian Bank @ 122-123 Tgt 131, 137 SL 120
Patni Computer Above 234 Tgt 248, 270 SL 227
Lupin @ 727-728 Tgt 745, 768 SL 720

GE Shipping @ 390-392 Tgt 380, 364, 337 SL 396
Maharastra Seamless @ 290-292 Tgt 281, 274 SL 296
Grasim @ 1960-1970 Tgt 1910, 1820 SL 1990
IVR Prime @ 170-172 Tgt 163, 156 SL 175
Hindustan Oil Exp @ 124-126 Tgt 118, 110 SL 128

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Outlook for the Week - Dated 25th August, 2008

Week that has gone by :
Markets were trading in negative territory for the major part of last week. Market breadth was negative and almost all the sectoral and mid-cap indices were in red. Oil marketing companies sprung negative surprises by losing heavily despite weak crude. There was no big out performances from any sector except odd Rolta and SAIL. Ranbaxy, Cipla, Tata Power, ABB and HDFC Bank were among the major gainers. ACC, BPCL, SBI, Grasim, Suzlon, Satyam, HCL Tech, Ambuja Cement, M&M, NTPC and GAIL were the top nifty losers.

Coming week :
Markets should see a slight bounce back after 2 weeks of weakness. The global clues are good and crude has crashed once again after rising above $120 per barrel. We might see Nifty give a bounce back to 4400-4420 levels but we don’t expect a very sharp move above this level. One should trade in ranges and do not expect huge rallies on either side. On the downside 4260 provides a good support. F&O expiry is due on this Thursday and in view of this, we recommend traders to avoid much exposure. We recommend stock specific trading and a trading band of 4260-4420 on Nifty.

Tata Power @ 1038-1040 Tgt 1090, 1120 SL 1020
LIC Housing Finance @ 320-322 Tgt 336, 344 SL 314
Biocon @ 395-398 Tgt 413, 440 SL 392
Bata India @ 171-172 Tgt 181, 192 SL 167

Cummins India @ 305-310 Tgt 288, 277 SL 318
GTL Below 190 Tgt 181 SL 193
Sesa Goa @ 160-161 Tgt 154, 148.50 SL 163
BEL @ 960-965 Tgt 900 SL 980

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Outlook for the Week beginning 18th August 2008

Last week :
The selling on the last trading session was more severe ahead of a long weekend and almost all sectors lost ground. Most of the F&O counters saw liquidation and hence witnessed reduction in open interest. Banking stocks got hit the most with a 6.5% fall in the Bank Nifty. Metals, Oil and Gas, Cement, Realty and Telecom stocks figured among the top losers. Cairn remained the top Nifty gainer followed by HCL Tech, Bajaj Auto, Siemens and Zee. HDFC, DLF, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, PNB, Hindalco, L&T and DR Reddy were the prominent losers all lost anywhere between 5-9%.
The coming week is going to be:
Get ready for another bout of selling after the Thursday’s fall and this fall will be more severe. We may witness selling coming from all quarters despite the weak crude. One has to play only short in markets if one were to take a short term call. We have every reason to believe that the shorts were already covered and further long liquidation is due. One has to act fast and get out of the long positions as quickly as possible and remain short for a week or so. We recommend traders to trade short in Nifty with a day close stoploss of 4480 and look for support levels of 4360 and further 4280, which look near term possibilities.

HDIL @ 442-444 Tgt 422, 398 SL 450
GTL @ 194-196 Tgt 188, 181 SL 198
Skumar Synfab @ 71-72 Tgt 68.50, 65.50 SL 73.50
RPL @ 163-164 Tgt 158.50, 154 SL 166
Rajesh Exports @ 52-52.50 Tgt 48.20, 44.50 SL 54
Sterling Bio @ 180-181 Tgt 172, 161 SL 184(day)
Praj Industries @ 183-184 Tgt 173, 168 SL 187