31-May-2010

Markets across the globe recovered sharply after the steep fall of the preceding week. Sensex and Nifty rose 2.54% and 2.75% respectively while CNX Midcap index moved up by over 4%. The market breadth remained positive during the week. After creating a low of 4786, Nifty rallied sharply for the last 3 days of the week to close well above 5000. Reliance Power, RCom, JP Associates, Reliance Infra, Sterlite, Unitech, Sun Pharma, ABB and Tata Motors were the top Nifty gainers all gained over 5% during the week. Grasim, ACC, Idea and Tata Steel were the top losers in Nifty.

Markets look evenly poised as we entered the fresh series. The global markets look stable after a reasonable correction. Our markets should be biased upwards as broader fundamentals favor buying interest. The recent low near 4800 on Nifty remains a strong support in the short term. On the upside immediate resistance is placed at 5200. Markets may consolidate in the band of 5000-5200 before taking any direction. Infrastructure stocks were beaten down pretty badly during the past few months and they may well turn out to be the outperformers in the coming months. Trade stock specific with strict stoplosses.

BUY
PFC @ 286-288 Tgt 300 SL 284
DIVISLAB @ 718-720 Tgt 760 SL 710
LUPIN @ 1800 Tgt 1880 SL 1785

SELL
NTPC @ 201-202 Tgt 190 SL 204
MCDOWELL-N @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1000 SL 1250
MPHASIS @ 600-605 Tgt 480 SL 620

24-May-2010

Markets corrected sharply during the week along with the weak global markets and amid negative news flow coming from the Eurozone. Both Sensex and Nifty lost over 3% week over week and all other supporting indices fell anywhere between 3-5%. The market breadth was extremely negative with only 24 stocks among 190 stocks traded in the F&O segment ending the week with gains. ABB saved the day for Nifty with over 23% gain after the announcement of the parent increasing the stake came as a surprise. GAIL, L&T, ONGC and BPCL were among other Nifty gainers. The losers were aplenty with Tata Motors leading the pack with over 13% loss over the week. Suzlon lost over 10% followed by DLF (9.9%), Unitech (9.74%), HCL Tech (9.36%), JP Associates (9.26%), Idea (9.11%), Ranbaxy (8.93%), Sterlite (8.51%), ICICI Bank (8.37%), IDFC (8.29%), Rcom (7.72%) and Hindalco (7.19%).

Markets are recovering from the last week’s massacre but the sustainability remains in question. Markets may see some recovery in the near term but the lingering concerns over the fate of global economy will keep the markets subdued in the short to medium term. Our markets may see stocks specific performances and it might take some time for the markets to really start moving up and catch a sustainable trend. Till then the overall direction would be dictated by what’s happening globally. Trade specific stocks with strict stoplosses and profit objectives.

BUY
ITC @ 265-266 Tgt 282 SL 260
LUPIN @ 1800 Tgt 1880 SL 1785

SELL
NTPC @ 200-201 Tgt 190 SL 203
OFSS @ 2080-2090 Tgt 2000, 1900 SL 2120
MCDOWELL-N @ 1200 Tgt 1000 SL 1240

17-May-2010

Markets recovered smartly last week after a steep fall witnessed during the week before, but gave away most of the gains on the last trading day. At the end of the week both Sensex and Nifty closed with around 1.5% gains week over week. All major and indices were positive and mid caps did well. It was a market with stock specific performances with positive momentum from Automobiles, Technology, Pvt Banking, Financials and Realty space. Axis Bank (8.78%), Dr Reddy (7.17%), Tata Motors (7.01%), M&M (6.83%), HDFC Bank (5.61%), HCL Tech (5.15%) and DLF (4.88%) were the top Nifty gainers while Idea (9.94%), Cipla (8.45%), Bharti (7.98%), Rcom (5.77%) and Ambuja Cement (4.73%) were among the top losers.

The global clues this morning were extremely negative as correction sets in across all asset classes. Markets back home may not behave differently and hence caution is advised. It looks difficult to make a strong comeback since the worries in the coming quarters look like worsening further. The sovereign default risks at Euro Zone, Negative outlook on China and interest rate fears at US are going to make things worse from here. Buyers should choose only specific stocks and for sellers the opportunities are wide open. Trade with strict stoplosses.

BUY
GODREJIND @ 160-162 Tgt 180 SL 156

SELL
MCDOWELL-N @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1100, 1020 SL 1260
JINDALSAW @ 190-192 Tgt 172 SL 197
HINDZINC @ 1080 Tgt 980 SL 1120
STER @ MKT Tgt 600 SL 730
OFSS @ 2120-2130 Tgt 2000 SL 2150

10-May-2010

Markets lost fair bit of ground on back of problems at various pockets of the world. While US seems recovering from the worst problems continue to haunt the Eurozone. There are already talks about Chinese economy going bust due to very high base effect. Chinese equity markets were under pressure since past many weeks and the weakness caught at other markets. Both Sensex and Nifty lost over 5% apiece and the weakness remained across all sectors. All sectors lost fair bit of ground without exception. BPCL (6.26%), Idea (3.68%), Ranbaxy (1.43%) were the only gainers in Nifty. ADAG group stocks saw heavy selling after the RIL-RNRL verdict came out on Friday. Reliance Infra (13.97%), Reliance Power (13.91%), ABB (13.83%), Sterlite (13.82%), Unitech (13.76%), Jindal Steel (12.66%), Tata Motors (12.59%) and JP Associates (12.06%) were the top Nifty losers.

Markets are looking shaky after the fears of sovereign defaults gripped the global markets again. A lot depends on how global markets fare in the near term. Another 10% fall on the index doesn’t look improbable at this point in time. Any rise from here should be a selling opportunity and hence one should remain a seller at rises. Only a close above 5200 shall turn the things back in the favour of bulls. It pays to be on the short side as long as the overall weakness remains.

BUY
ADANIENT @ 538-540 Tgt 580 SL 530

SELL
RECLTD @ 253-254 Tgt 241, 236 SL 256
MCDOWELL-N @ 1240 Tgt 1100, 1020 SL 1260
IDFC @ 160-162 Tgt 148, 142 SL 163
HINDZINC @ 1115-1120 Tgt 980 SL 1135
STER @ 738-740 Tgt 600 SL 760

03-May-2010

Markets were trading mixed during the last week as Midcap and Banking stocks continued to head upwards while other sectors took breathing. Both Sensex and Nifty lost nearly half a percentage points with slightly negative market breadth. The F&O expiry was smooth without much volatility. Cairn India was the biggest Nifty gainers, with a 6% WoW gain, along with Sterlite (4.17%), Dr Reddy (3.87%), BPCL (3.76%), ONGC (3.63%) and Cipla (3.48%). The major losers included Sun Pharma (6.71%), Idea (6.71%), DLF (6.5%), JP Associates (6.19%), Maruti (6%), Reliance (5.02%) and ABB (3.83%).

Markets look sluggish as we move into the fresh month with most of the big results already out. Weak Global markets, Crisis at Euro Zone and rising interest rates are the major worries to the markets as we go into the next week. The global clues are negative but markets back home should find strong support at declines. Close below 5180 on Nifty is required to turn the markets weak in medium term. Most of the action would remain outside index where we witnessed quite a bit of accumulation during the recent past. It is advisable to trade stock specific with strict target objectives.

BUY
HINDZINC @ 1230-1232 Tgt 1320, 1380 SL 1210
INDIANB @ 220-222 Tgt 240 SL 215
SCI @ 163-164 Tgt 172, 180 SL 160
CAIRN @ 310-312 Tgt 321, 333 SL 304
CHAMBLFERT @ 64.50-65 Tgt 72, 80 SL 63