Sunday, October 25, 2009


Markets slipped from nearly one and a half year highs amid extremely negative market breadth. Both Sensex and Nifty lost close to 3% as mid caps and all sectoral indices, with the exception of Technology and metals, lost ground. Heavy weights Reliance, Grasim and L&T broke down sharply and figured among the biggest losers in Nifty. There were losers in almost all sectors except some outperformers from Metals and Technology. HCL Tech, Nalco, Hindalco, TCS, ITC, Infosys and Wipro were among the major gainers while Grasim, Reliance, Reliance Capital, L&T, Tata Steel, Suzlon, Unitech and Reliance Infra were the major losers.

During the last few months, markets didn’t look as fluid as they are looking at this point of time. There are certainly reasons for this.
a. The market breadth during the last week was extremely negative.
b. There were some significant breakdowns in some of the heavy weights which make the markets not as lucrative as they looked for last few months. Heavy weights like Reliance, L&T, Grasim and Bharti have seen strong breakouts on the downside which doesn’t augur well for the markets. Charts signal that medium term peaks are made in these stocks and further downside looks imminent though we may see intermittent bounce backs. Any rise in these stocks is a selling opportunity and hence we recommend traders to avoid.
c. Nearly one fifth of the stocks traded in the F&O segment are trading near their respective lows for the month.
If Nifty were to breach 4900 decisively, then we may see sharp downside towards 4400, a fall which is long overdue. Exit long positions if Nifty closes below 4900 and look for opportunities to create shorts.

JPHYDRO @ 75-76 Tgt 70 SL 76.60
SESAGOA @ 330-333 Tgt 300, 284 SL 340
RELCAPITAL @ 890-900 Tgt 800 SL 920
FINANTECH @ 1300-1310 Tgt 1200 SL 1330
SUZLON @ 86-86.50 Tgt 80, 72 SL 88
HCLTECH @ 330-333 Tgt 300 SL 340
RELMEDIA @ 335-337 Tgt 310 SL 345

Monday, October 19, 2009


Markets continued the uptrend and both Sensex and Nifty moved up close to 4% during the week. It was a perfect rally before Diwali with fireworks from all sectors. The second quarter results were heartening and so far there is no big disappointment. The market breadth was extremely positive and provides inkling about the future. SBI, Jindal Steel, Cairn, DLF, Tata Power, SAIL and TCS were among the top gainers while Ambuja Cement, BPCL, RCOM and Bharti remained top losers.

The global clues are strong and we may expect a strong opening here back home. We may see Nifty finding resistance at 5200 and retrace for the day. If we look at the medium term, as long as it remains above 4900, the possibilities of a fresh peak beyond 6000 are open. It requires a close below 4860 to put an end to this stupendous rally. Now the baton passes on to Reliance and ONGC to lead the rally from here on. Accumulate these stocks for surprising gains.

The following are the positional calls for the coming couple of months.

ESSAROIL @ CMP Tgt 200 SL 160
ONGC @ CMP Tgt 1560 SL 1140
RELIANCE @ CMP Tgt 2700 SL 2120
IVRCLINFRA @ 395-400 Tgt 500 SL 380

Sunday, October 4, 2009


Markets continued the uptrend both Sensex and Nifty moved up more than two and a half percentage points during the week. It was a shortened week lasting just 3 trading days. Technology, private sector banks, metals and telecom were among the sectors which gained the most. Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, TCS, Wipro, Rcom and Bharti were the top nifty gainers. Grasim, BPCL, Dr Reddy and Unitech were among the biggest losers.

The global cues are anything but strong going into the next week. We may see markets open with a downward gap as suggested by SGX nifty. Supports for Nifty exist at 5000 and further at 4920. We may see markets finding support below 5000 and continue the trend. The trend is intact as long as Nifty trades above 4860. We expect Reliance to lead the next leg of rally and support may come from Cement, Infrastructure, Realty and other mid-caps. Caution is advised if Nifty closes below 5000.

ABAN @ 1620-1625 Tgt 1900 SL 1600
DABUR @ 140-141 Tgt 148 SL 137
GAIL @ 358-360 Tgt 380 SL 354
ESSAROIL @ 155-156 Tgt 166, 172 SL 150
TATACHEM @ 274-276 Tgt 300 SL 268

IDEA @ 74-74.50 Tgt 71, 68.50 SL 75.50
HDFC @ 2700-2710 Tgt 2590 SL 2740
FINANTECH @ 1400-1410 Tgt 1320 SL 1430
RNRL @ 88-88.50 Tgt 84, 78 SL 89.50
TV-18 @ 100-102 Tgt 88, 82 SL 105