Monday, December 28, 2009
Nifty is trading at a crucial juncture at this point in time. 5150-5200 is a crucial resistance and Nifty is placed at a fresh one and a half year high. If it manages to breach 5200, we may see the rally extending to 5600. We may see a buoyant market in terms of stock specific action and we recommend short term traders to trade long for immediate gains. Supports are placed at 5070 and 5000. The chances of this impending rise could be negated only if it manages a close below 5000. The exuberance must reach to irrational levels for the markets to subside from here. Buy for immediate term with adequate stoplosses.
CROMPGREAV @ 418-420 Tgt 444 SL 410
SESAGOA @ 386-388 Tgt 425 SL 376
PANTALOONR @ 364-366 Tgt 400 SL 358
BHUSANSTL @ 1410-1420 Tgt 1600 SL 1370
OPTOCIRCUI @ 224-226 Tgt 260 SL 220
HINDZINC @ 1190-1200 Tgt 1260, 1400 SL 1170
MPHASIS @ 720-725 Tgt 760 SL 710
Sunday, December 20, 2009
The global cues are mixed we may witness some range bound activity back home. Nifty closed below 5000 once gain after repeated attempts to breach 5200 failed during the past one month. Immediate term resistance on Nifty remains at 5070 and a strong short term resistance remains above 5150. Supports exist at 4940 and further at 4800. Long positions must be exited if it manages a close below 4940. Markets may trade stock specific and hence short term trading is recommended with adequate stoplosses. Metals look particularly strong and we expect weakness in Banking stocks.
HINDALCO @ 140-142 Tgt 152, 160 SL 136
SESAGOA @ 354-356 Tgt 400 SL 344
PANTALOONR 358-360 Tgt 400 SL 350
OPTOCIRCUI @ 218-220 Tgt 232, 260 SL 208
SAIL @ 208-210 Tgt 234 SL 204
TATACOMM @ 340-342 Tgt 320 SL 348
HDFC @ 2600-2610 Tgt 2480 SL 2640
ANDHRABANK @ 104-105 Tgt 99, 92 SL 107
EDUCOMP @ 720-724 Tgt 680, 620 SL 740
BANKINDIA @ 364-365 Tgt 348 SL 372
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Markets are looking good for medium term with stock specific performances. Metals, Pharma, Auto and Banking sectors look good going ahead. Nifty faces strong resistance at 5200, which looks difficult to breach in the immediate term. Breach of 5200 may see it climbing upto 5500 in the short term. On the downside strong support exists at 4800. We may see consolidation in the range of 4800-5200 before markets take any direction. It is advisable to trade stock specific with adequate protection.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
The cues going into the week are positive as global markets stage strong recovery after the fall. The Dubai tumors look like beginning to fade but we expect the cracks would continue to haunt the markets going forward. The coming week’s market behavior would determine the medium term direction of the markets. If the deep financial crisis could be averted by synchronized collective stimuli from major nations, we feel this crisis should well be prevented from escalating. If markets succeed in touching the lows of Friday, then we might have some more pain left in the system. One must remain cautious for this week and traders must maintain strict stoplosses.
RANBAXY @ 438-440 Tgt 460 SL 432
GVKPIL @ 50-50.25 Tgt 52.50, 58 SL 49
GSPL @ 94-94.25 Tgt 100 SL 92
ORCHIDCHEM @ 178-180 Tgt 200 SL 172
IDFC @ 162-163 Tgt 156, 151 SL 166
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Markets are likely to trade stable with positive bias going forward. Any correction should be seen as more of a buying opportunity than a sign of reversal. Nifty may find support at 5000 and we may see 5200 being tested once again this week. We expect steel and banking stocks to witness rally in the coming weeks. Technology may remain sluggish while steel and banking may witness further upside. Trade stock specific and avoid short positions for the time being.
BEL @ CMP Tgt 1680 SL 1560
AUROPHARMA @ 776-780 Tgt 840 SL 760
TATASTEEL @ CMP Tgt 585 SL 540
DENABANK @ 79.5-80 Tgt 88 SL 76
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Markets continue to strengthen as fears of the recession alleviate with every passing day. The global economy seems stabilizing. While the data across the globe suggest that the worst is behind us, it is amply clear that the next growth engines for the global economy are China and India. The possibilities of a fresh peak remain open from here. On the down side, we may see support coming in from funds, market participants and retail investors at every decline. Corrections should be utilized to buy into the strong momentum stocks. Nifty may find support below 4800 and may try to make an attempt to reach 5200 once again. Avoid carrying short positions.
BEL @ 1580-1590 Tgt 1680 SL 1560
ZEEL @ 253-255 Tgt 282 SL 248
TATATEA @ 895-900 Tgt 945 SL 880
HINDZINC @ 900-905 Tgt 960 SL 890
NATIONALUM @ 376-380 Tgt 404 SL 365
AUROPHARMA @ 755-760 Tgt 840 SL 730
RELCAPITAL @ 845-850 Tgt 800 SL 870
Sunday, November 8, 2009
The results season is over and the overall direction of the markets would depend on the sentiment from global financial markets. Markets may trade volatile during the coming week finding resistance between 4850-4900 and support between 4500-4550. We expect the action to remain stock specific and hence it is recommended to resort to stock specific trades on either side.
WIPRO @ 590-592 Tgt 620 SL 580
CROMPGREAV @ 376-378 Tgt 400 SL 370
MCDOWELL-N @ 1055-1060 Tgt 1120 SL 1030
TATAMOTORS @ 558-560 Tgt 594 SL 550
BHARTIARTL @ 323-325 Tgt 300 SL 330
GMRINFRA @ 66-67 Tgt 63 SL 68
M&M @ 992-995 Tgt 940 SL 1020
Monday, November 2, 2009
As predicted last week, markets witnessed correction throughout the week amid volatile global markets. The correction may extend further as markets face resistance at every rise. 4500/4400 on Nifty is still a possibility but we may see a bounce back before that happening. 4850-4900 is a strong resistance for immediate term and we may see Nifty honoring this resistance. However, we may witness stock specific action going forward. Sell weaker sectors/stocks on rises and buy stronger ones on dips. Falls like these give opportunities to buy strong medium term stocks. Following are some of these stocks.
INDIANB @ 148-150 Tgt 220 SL 135
SUNPHARMA @ 1300-1320 Tgt 1600 SL 1220
POLARIS @ 150-152 Tgt 200 SL 140
OFSS @ 2050-2070 Tgt 2600 SL 1960
Sunday, October 25, 2009
During the last few months, markets didn’t look as fluid as they are looking at this point of time. There are certainly reasons for this.
a. The market breadth during the last week was extremely negative.
b. There were some significant breakdowns in some of the heavy weights which make the markets not as lucrative as they looked for last few months. Heavy weights like Reliance, L&T, Grasim and Bharti have seen strong breakouts on the downside which doesn’t augur well for the markets. Charts signal that medium term peaks are made in these stocks and further downside looks imminent though we may see intermittent bounce backs. Any rise in these stocks is a selling opportunity and hence we recommend traders to avoid.
c. Nearly one fifth of the stocks traded in the F&O segment are trading near their respective lows for the month.
If Nifty were to breach 4900 decisively, then we may see sharp downside towards 4400, a fall which is long overdue. Exit long positions if Nifty closes below 4900 and look for opportunities to create shorts.
JPHYDRO @ 75-76 Tgt 70 SL 76.60
SESAGOA @ 330-333 Tgt 300, 284 SL 340
RELCAPITAL @ 890-900 Tgt 800 SL 920
FINANTECH @ 1300-1310 Tgt 1200 SL 1330
SUZLON @ 86-86.50 Tgt 80, 72 SL 88
HCLTECH @ 330-333 Tgt 300 SL 340
RELMEDIA @ 335-337 Tgt 310 SL 345
Monday, October 19, 2009
The global clues are strong and we may expect a strong opening here back home. We may see Nifty finding resistance at 5200 and retrace for the day. If we look at the medium term, as long as it remains above 4900, the possibilities of a fresh peak beyond 6000 are open. It requires a close below 4860 to put an end to this stupendous rally. Now the baton passes on to Reliance and ONGC to lead the rally from here on. Accumulate these stocks for surprising gains.
The following are the positional calls for the coming couple of months.
ESSAROIL @ CMP Tgt 200 SL 160
ONGC @ CMP Tgt 1560 SL 1140
RELIANCE @ CMP Tgt 2700 SL 2120
IVRCLINFRA @ 395-400 Tgt 500 SL 380
Sunday, October 4, 2009
The global cues are anything but strong going into the next week. We may see markets open with a downward gap as suggested by SGX nifty. Supports for Nifty exist at 5000 and further at 4920. We may see markets finding support below 5000 and continue the trend. The trend is intact as long as Nifty trades above 4860. We expect Reliance to lead the next leg of rally and support may come from Cement, Infrastructure, Realty and other mid-caps. Caution is advised if Nifty closes below 5000.
ABAN @ 1620-1625 Tgt 1900 SL 1600
DABUR @ 140-141 Tgt 148 SL 137
GAIL @ 358-360 Tgt 380 SL 354
ESSAROIL @ 155-156 Tgt 166, 172 SL 150
TATACHEM @ 274-276 Tgt 300 SL 268
IDEA @ 74-74.50 Tgt 71, 68.50 SL 75.50
HDFC @ 2700-2710 Tgt 2590 SL 2740
FINANTECH @ 1400-1410 Tgt 1320 SL 1430
RNRL @ 88-88.50 Tgt 84, 78 SL 89.50
TV-18 @ 100-102 Tgt 88, 82 SL 105
Monday, September 21, 2009
Markets are far stronger than what they looked like on the face of it. The rally has not seen participation from the heavy weights like Reliance, ONGC, NTPC, Bharti etc. One could imagine what it could have been if only these biggies participated. There is more steam left in the markets. It reminds of a typical secular bull run where all sectors participate in turns. It was banking which lead the rally during the past couple of weeks and now it is the turn of Infrastructure and realty. We expect the laggards to take the lead and keep the markets buoyant from here. We’ve already seen a hint of that happening on Friday, when ADAG group stocks started moving up. We may not see a very big correction in the indices atleast. Reliance breaching 2200 and we may see markets entering the next leg which may take Nifty towards 5600. Stay Long.
LITL @ 458-460 Tgt 500 SL 440
WIPRO @ 564-566 Tgt 584, 600 SL 555
HDIL @ CMP Tgt 360 SL 310
LICHSGFIN @ 750-752 Tgt 800 SL 740
IVRCLINFRA @ 372-374 Tgt 400 SL 366
UNITECH @ 110-111 Tgt 120, 132 SL 106
BANKINDIA @ 403-406 Tgt 380 SL 412
ORIENTBANK @ 233-234 Tgt 220 SL 240
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Markets refuse to come down irrespective of whatever fundamentals. The entire rally is driven by liquidity and every rise is being treated with caution. As long as caution is in the air, we don’t expect the markets to correct substantially. Hence one must trade long with STRICT STOP LOSSES. Buy on sharp corrections with an overall stop of 4460 on Nifty. 4600 remains a strong support in the short term and the next resistance comes only at 5000. Since most of the asset classes across the globe are moving in tandem, expect our markets to follow the global trend. One must not commit long term funds in the markets since it would be difficult to contain the fall when it really happens. Wait for the confirmation of reversal to build short positions.
LITL @ 410-412 Tgt 444, 500 SL 390
POWERGRID @ 107 Tgt 111, 115 SL 105
YESBANK @ 170-172 Tgt 182, 190 SL 168
ADLABSFILM @ 340-342 Tgt 374, 410 SL 334
HDIL @ 298-300 Tgt 360 SL 288
ABAN @ 1460-1470 Tgt 1900 SL 1400
UNITECH @ 103-104 Tgt 120, 132 SL 97
Sunday, September 6, 2009
The global cues are positive and hence we may see a strong opening here. 4750-4760 on Nifty acts as a strong resistance. Multiple supports are identified between 4560-4600. Markets may trade range bound with stock specific rallies. A close above this level may turn the things for a rally towards 5000. Trade stock specific with adequate stop losses.
LITL @ 408-410 Tgt 444, 500 SL 390
ICSA @ CMP Tgt 224, 260 SL 200
YESBANK @ 167-168 Tgt 182 SL 162
ADLABSFILM @ CMP Tgt 374, 410 SL 340
HDIL @ 294-295 Tgt 322 SL 288
Sunday, August 23, 2009
The cues going into the next week are positive. US and European markets witnessed a rally on Friday and Asian markets are trading strong this morning. Nifty faces huge resistance in the zone of 4600-4620 in the immediate term. We expect Nifty to honor this resistance and retrace. Supports are identified at 4450 and further at 4360. A close above 4600 is crucial for this rally to sustain. It is expiry week and we may see the volatility increase. The global markets need to be watched closely since all asset classes are moving in tandem globally irrespective of broader fundamentals. For the time being, trade stock specific with adequate stoplosses.
LITL @ 408-410 Tgt 440, SL 400
ABAN @ 1155-1160 Tgt 1220, 1300 SL 1120
YESBANK @ 168-170 Tgt 182, 190 SL 164
IVRCLINFRA @ 333-336 Tgt 380 SL 325
VOLTAS @ CMP Tgt 160 SL 137
Sunday, August 16, 2009
The global markets are trading weak this morning and the sentiment going into the week is negative. We may see a strong down ward movement and a consolidation with a downward bias going forward. 4600 is a strong resistance and hence only a close above this level could turn things for good. 4400-4420 is a strong short term support zone. A move below this level could take the markets down sharply towards 4000. Trade stock specific with strict stoplosses.
GAIL @ 334-335 Tgt 360 SL 328
EKC @ 188-190 Tgt 212 SL 180
TATACHEM @ 250-252 Tgt 271, 292 SL 244
IDEA @ 78-79 Tgt 76, 72.5 SL 81
HINDUNILVR @ 260-262 Tgt 249, 242 SL 266
TATACOMM @ CMP Tgt 478, 460 SL 515
ASHOKLEY @ 37-37.20 Tgt 34.5, 32 SL 38
YESBANK @ 160-161 Tgt 151 SL 164
Sunday, August 9, 2009
The global cues are positive and we may see positivism at the opening. Weak monsoon on the fundamental front is a big worry and hence that may weigh high on Indian equities in the medium term. 4600 is a big resistance for nifty in the immediate term and it finds support at 4420. One has to take stock specific exposure and trade with strict stoplosses.
LICHSGFIN @ CMP Tgt 660 SL 610
HINDZINC @ 735-740 Tgt 765, 800 SL 720
PATNI @ 342-345 Tgt 362 SL 338
LITL @ 400-402 Tgt 422, 441 SL 390
Sunday, August 2, 2009
The sentiment is clearly bullish but we may see stock specific directional movement going forward. It is a buy on dips markets with a day close stop loss on Nifty below 4400. Support and Resistances on Nifty exist at 4540 and 4800. Nifty may take support below 4600 and make an attempt towards 4800 in the coming week. The situation on the fundamental front does not look too rosy as it is made out to be but as long as the markets are trending, let us be with the markets. It is a traders’ market and hence positions should be initiated with trading perspective with strict target objectives and stop losses.
BANKBARODA @ 430-432 Tgt 450 SL 425
NATIONALUM @ CMP Tgt 360 SL 290
PUNJLLOYD @ 240-242 Tgt 275 SL 236
CANBK @ 282-284 Tgt 320 SL 275
FINANTECH @ 1400-1410 Tgt 1600 SL 1370
APIL @ 520-525 Tgt 590 SL 510
Sunday, July 12, 2009
The fundamentals of the economy are certainly looking bleak. For me the major problems are unemployment, the security threat from our neighbours and the effect of global recession on India. There are talks of green shoots sprouting up all around but we are no way near to a ‘U’ shaped recovery. The rises that we’ve seen do not support any recovery theory. There are already rumours in the air that a downgrade on India is likely in the immediate future. Every positive news must be sold into and we do not expect the markets to stage a very strong recovery from these levels. The momentum would remain on the downside in the short to medium term. Our markets may open with a gap down going by the global cues but we may see recovery towards 4000. On the upside 4020 is a strong resistance and any move above 4000-4200 should be utilized to create medium term short positions. Sell on rises and maintain short positions. Avoid any long positions. Sell not for today, always sell for tomorrow.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Markets took some positives from the Railway budget and moved higher on the last trading day of the week. The big event is due on Monday - The Union Budget. The budget this year is a very crucial event since this is the first budget of the UPA’s second term and would provide us the broad intent on policy and direction. One must be cautious and avoid trading just before the budget. The indications so far point towards a clear long-term vision by looking at the measures taken on educational reforms and the intention to provide national ID cards. The big question still is to see whether the reforms process could continue with out much tinkering with the basic tax structure in the wake of falling revenues due to global economic meltdown and the indications of scanty rainfall for this Kharif season. If one excludes the first couple of days of this week, the overall direction of the equity markets would still be dictated by the global factors. We expect to see some stock/sector specific rallies going forward but the overall direction would remain bearish.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
The weakness is visible across all sectors. The global cues suggest a strong opening here in our markets but the rises from here are not likely to sustain. 4400 on Nifty acts as a stiff resistance for immediate term while support exists at 4200. It may try to trade and consolidate in this band for a couple of days before breaking out. Long positions must be avoided at any juncture and stock specific short positions are recommended with strict stop losses. Stocks like Union Bank, Central Bank, Mphasis, LIC Housing Finance and sugar stocks Renuka, Bajaj Hindustan are looking strong. Hence avoid these counters and longs can be contemplated with a strict short term view in these stocks. Cement, Metals and Infra stocks show weakness. One should utilize rises to create short positions in these counters with predefined stoplosses. Sell Lupin, Sterlite, ACC, Rajesh Exports, FSL, Wockhardt and Karnataka Bank for immediate gains.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
It is becoming increasingly difficult to fathom the reasons for a sustained rally in global financial markets. The momentum is up and hence it is risky to expect the markets to fall immediately. We might see a correction as sharp as the rally when the sentiment turns negative. The fundamentals will hurt the markets more than they hurt them now. Long positions should be contemplated only for intraday and long positions that hurt the most should be liquidated at the end of the day. Avoid carrying long positions. Wait for the change in direction for going short.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Looking at the outcome of the Elections and the clear mandate given to UPA, our markets should open with a huge gap up as is indicated by the Singapore Nifty. There is a possibility that we may see them losing ground from then. We might see a reversal from here and hence selling is surely recommended at the higher levels of Monday with a strict day close stop losses. SGX Nifty points a level of 4100-4150 at the opening. If this were to be the case, one can have a tight day close stop loss of 4250 and look for selling opportunity in Nifty and specific stocks. Risk averse traders better avoid the markets and wait for clear direction before entering.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
The momentum is losing strength, particularly here in Indian markets. Global markets still support gains. Charts in many global markets and commodities suggest another leg of rally before crashing. The election results should be a big trigger and in all probability we will be witnessing a huge crash. By the beginning of the next week, we see even global markets cooling off adding to the pain. One should get out of all long positions by the end of this week. We expect the cement and auto numbers to give negative surprises on their month on month numbers of May and hence recommend traders to create short positions on rises. Trade cautiously with adequate stoplosses.
Tata Power@ 895-900 Tgt 920, 1000 SL 870
Tata Tea @ 708-710 Tgt 760, 800 SL 690
Welspun Gujrath @ 110-111 Tgt 119, 124 SL 107
United Spirits @ 682-685 Tgt 654, 640 SL 694
Tata Communication @ 568-570 Tgt 540, 525 SL 580
Hero Honda @ 1230-1235 Tgt 1160, 1100 SL 1260
NTPC @ 193-194 Tgt 186, 182 SL 198
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Tata Power @ 875-880/above 920 Tgt 920, 1000 SL 850
Nalco @ CMP Tgt 238, 260 SL 200
GE Shipping @ 198-200 Tgt 220, 260 SL 190
Hero Honda @ 1220-1230 Tgt 1100, 1000 SL 1260
Bank of India @ 260-262 Tgt 240, 220 SL 270
Divis Lab @ 890-900 Tgt 800, 760 SL 930
NTPC @ 198-200 Tgt 182, 170 SL 206
Ambuja Cement @ 85-87 Tgt 78, 64 SL 94
Sunday, April 19, 2009
The increasing volatility signals the end of this intermediate Bull Run in the markets. One can start looking at selling specific stocks at rises and liquidating all long positions. We might see another sharp rise to the levels of 3500 on Nifty and 11400 on Sensex before they crash down below 3000 and 10000 respectively. The fall is imminent but it is the question of timing the markets. Due to lack of fundamental support for the rise, once the selling starts it will be difficult to contain and the ensuing fall may be sharper than the rise. We see a possibility of stocks and indices eroding all the gains that were recorded during the month at this expiry itself. Hence one should only look at creating Medium term/Long term short positions. Avoid long positions at any level.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
The pace of this rise may raise many eyebrows but it is for real. Though the rally lacks any fundamental backing, it was strong enough to keep the markets afloat and keep them above the October-November lows for some time. The results season is about to begin and looking at the indications we are getting, we are not going to witness any positive news flow from the companies in terms of guidance. The elections go underway this week and we don’t expect much there as well. All in all, this is a baffling move, which may culminate with a sharp rise upside in a couple of days before starting its downward journey again. Avoid carrying long positions.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
We might see our markets open with an upside gap due to strong Asian markets and may retrace from the highs. Utilize these opportunities to exit the markets. Nifty might face stiff resistance between 2860- 2900. We might see the month of April bringing a whole lot of negative surprises on the elections and results front hence we view this as the right opportunity for short and medium term traders to initiate and hold on to the short positions. One must progressively short Metals, Auto and Cement stocks since they are the ones, which outperformed the overall markets due to some positive news flow. I expect these sectors to lead the next leg of correction. Initiate short positions at higher levels and hold the positions for the coming 2 months.
Yes Bank @ 47-48 Tgt 42, 38.50 SL 49
Ranbaxy @ 150-152 Tgt 134, 122 SL 155
JSW Steel @ 192-194 Tgt 180, 172 SL 198
Titan @ 740-745 Tgt 700, 680 SL 755
Sunday, March 15, 2009
We might see a positive opening on Monday on back of a buoyant Friday close and there may be some follow up buying. But these rises are not likely to sustain. Technically major resistance for Nifty comes around 2800. Short traders must wait for opportunities to sell anywhere around this level. Be stock specific and trade short at higher levels. Fundamentally we don’t see any major reason for a sustained rally. There are some positive indications on the auto sales and cement dispatch figures. We feel that these numbers do not reflect the true picture due to extraneous reasons like election fever and the govt schemes running on fast track. But this myopia is likely to evaporate in 1-2 months. Aptech, Moser Baer, Yes Bank, IDFC, Hotel Leela, Canara Bank, Bharti and Idea may try to test lower levels in the coming week. One can trade short in these stocks with adequate stoplosses. Avoid long positions.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
IOC @ 433-435 Tgt 424, 413 SL 438
Praj Industries @ 50-50.5 Tgt 46, 41 SL 52
India Infoline @ 42-43 Tgt 38.60, 35 SL 44
Aditya Birla Nuvo @ 360-364 Tgt 340, 320 SL 370
HPCL @ 276-278 Tgt 268, 260 SL 282
Reliance Capital @ 296-300 Tgt 271, 260 SL 305
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Most of the global markets breached October lows and drifted much lower. The outperformance of our markets is not likely to last for long given the bleak global outlook. Asian markets are trading weak and we should expect a gap down opening and the cuts may get much deeper during the course of the week. 2660-2680 is the strong support for Nifty and if it manages to breach this level, the next support comes only at 2520, the RIL-RPL merger not withstanding. Sell at the opening and hold on to short positions.
Divis Lab @ 860-864 Tgt 824, 800 SL 875
ABB @ 370-372 Tgt 348, 336 SL 380
ACC @ CMP Tgt 494, 478 SL 526
Reliance Capital @ 360-362 Tgt 333, 320 SL 370
Tech Mahindra @ 254-256 Tgt 232, 220 SL 262
Grasim @ 1370-1375 Tgt 1320, 1200 SL 1400
Monday, February 23, 2009
Unlike the trend has been for years, we are going to witness the overall markets dominating the futures movement and the expiry rather than futures outstanding dictating the overall market trend. Markets might open with a downside gap and may take support at lower levels. 2660-2680 provides a good support for Nifty and we may see a bounce back from these levels. It Nifty manages to close below this band, we might see another sharp fall to 2500 very soon. Markets have to correct to levels of October-November lows sooner or later in line with the other global markets and it is a good opportunity for traders to build short positions in Nifty at rises. The heavy weights have to correct from this juncture and we will witness the 2500 levels in Nifty very soon. We have been recommending short positions since past 6 months and we continue to hold this belief that markets are heading for much lower levels. And the outlook cannot be complete with this last sentence “Avoid long positions at any level”.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Nifty decisively broke the level of 2900 and closed above it. Multiple resistances exist above 3000 and we do not see any reason for the markets to add on to these gains. The interim budget is going to be presented in the Parliament today and hence expect volatility for this week. One should try to get out of equities at every opportunity. Medium term traders should utilize the opportunity to progressively build shorts with 2-3 month perspective.
ABB @ 444-446 Tgt 430, 419 SL 454
Praj Industries @ 61.5-62 Tgt 56 SL 64
India Infoline @ 52-53 Tgt 48 SL 55
Sterlite Industries @ 280-282 Tgt 263 SL 294
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Markets recovered from the lower levels in line with the global markets and were held strong on the last trading day. Some of the small cap counters in F&O rallied after being beaten down continuously for past many months. Market breadth was negative for the major part of the week. Realty stocks witnessed mixed trends as the biggies DLF and Unitech got a drubbing while the smaller counters recovering smartly from the lows due to short covering. IT, Banking, Pharma and Financials lost further ground during the week while Cement and Shipping stocks were among the sectors which gained the most. Grasim, HCL Tech, ACC, SAIL and GAIL were the top Nifty gainers while Hindalco, M&M, Suzlon, HDFC, Reliance Infra, L&T, Reliance Power, Tata Motors and Sterlite lost anywhere between 5-10%.
2880-2900 is a crucial resistance area for Nifty in the short term. Markets may open with an upside gap given the strong global clues but there is every possibility that they may correct. A close above 2900 on Nifty may spring an upside surprise of another 100 points but the rallies are not likely to sustain. We might see distribution in many stocks taking place in the coming week/s and markets, in all probability, may resume their downward journey again. Wait till later half of the week for higher levels to create short positions progressively with a 2-3 month perspective. The possibility of negative surprises is looming large in the markets and it may come in at any time and in any form. Avoid long positions at any levels.
HCL Tech @ 130-132 Tgt 118 SL 135
Polaris @ 52-53 Tgt 48 SL 55
Mercator Lines @ 32-33 Tgt 28 SL 35
Sesa Goa 100-102 Tgt 90 SL 106
Ispat Industries @ 12-12.20 Tgt 10.60 SL 12.60
Sunday, February 1, 2009
The rally we saw just now is purely due to short covering and is not backed by genuine buying and hence we feel that it is not sustainable. The bounces that we are witnessing are bear market rallies, which have the tendency to create lower tops. We feel that it will take a very long time for this bear market to reverse or even find a bottom. One should trade on both sides once the markets finish the fall and form a trading range. At this point in time we recommend remaining only short. Short term resistance on Nifty exist at the current levels and a close above the Friday’s close may see Nifty trying to stage back to 2950 and further 3100 levels. But that looks an uphill task given the fact that markets already rallied quite a bit last week. One should not be fooled by the rallies of this kind and continue selling without worrying too much about the upside. We expect fall in Sugar, Cement and Infrastructure stocks in the following weeks and hence recommend traders to build short positions with adequate stoplosses.
Monday, January 26, 2009
A decisive close below 2700 on Nifty more or less indicates the things to come. There seems to be unanimity of opinion about the fall now and what we are going to witness is a range bound movement in Nifty for this week. The put call ratio suggests a range of 2600-2700 on Nifty until this expiry. One should indulge in stock specific short trades and pick the right counters to stay short. Cement counters remained quiet without much downside in January. We might see sharp downward rallies in cement in the coming month and hence we recommend traders to stay short in cement. The chances of negative shocks far exceed the possibility of a positive surprise and we may going forward see some more skeletons falling as promoters feel the funds crunch and had to come out in open due to desperation. We don’t want to get struck with another Satyam, or do we? Avoid buying.
Following are some of the positional calls for the month of February. Initiate short positions in counters where the Feb futures are tradina at or nearing initiation prices with appropriate day close stoplosses. Some stocks may not hit Initiation prices but the targets are in tact. Wait for the right opportunity and go short. Avoid trading long.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Asian markets are trading strong and we might see opening gains on Monday. Short term resistances exist at 2860, 2950 and 3150. The action would remain stock specific as the third quarter results keep coming in. There are two reasons to remain short in the markets. The first one is that the overall medium and long term outlook looks extremely bleak and the other one is what happened with Satyam and Rolta can happen with a host of other companies in terms of price erosion. A negative surprise may see a stock crash in a single day and the days of pleasant surprises are more or less over. Risk takers should go ahead and initiate short positions in counters, whose results are due and cover positions after the announcement of results. Out of every 10 stocks we might see returns in 7-8 counters. One should only remain short at rises and do not carry any long positions.
Hero Honda, Indian Bank, Akruti, Chambal Fertilizer, Gail, Noida Toll, Maruti, GTL and GMR Infra are depicting relative strength and we might see some gains in short term. Avoid short positions in these stocks.
We might see fall in some of the PSU banking stocks which erstwhile remained strong throughout. Other counters where one can expect a fall in short term include IVRCL Infra, Financial Tech, DCB, Hindalco, JSW Steel, Punjlloyd, Pantaloon, Unitech, Voltas, Mc Dowell, Polaris and Jindal Saw.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
The next week is going to be crucial as the results season begin with the announcement of results from Infosys. The results this quarter are likely to throw some negative surprises and we should be prepared for some nasty blows on specific stocks. One should remain short in the markets as we are convinced about the long term bearish outlook.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
It was one of the worst weeks for us in terms of the success ratio of our weekly calls and outlook. Almost everything went wrong as markets staged a big rally. Markets defy everybody at one point or other and we are at the receiving end last week. We still maintain our overall view about the markets and recommend an exit for investors. We see resistance for Nifty coming at 3160 and further at 3250. We feel that markets are in a secular bear spiral and we might see a prolonged bear run on the markets and the rally that we have seen is a corrective rally which will fizzle out sooner or later. We do not recommend going against the trend and hence are vary of recommending a buy at this point. We suggest traders to wait for opportunities and remain sellers on the way down. Those who are holding on to the short positions should continue to hold the positions as we see troubled times ahead. Avoid long positions at any juncture.