30-Nov-09

Markets started trading the week on a positive note and were in positive territory for the first half of the week and then news of Dubai property and realty firms struggling to pay back their debt and are looking for restructuring their loans once again gripped the markets. Markets toppled during the latter half of the week before recovering smartly during the fag end. Both Sensex and Nifty lost more than 2% week on week with all the sectoral indices closing the week with losses. The market breadth was negative but yet there were some stock specific performances. BPCL was the biggest Nifty gainer with nearly 12% wow gain while the other gainers included Ranbaxy, GAIL, Hero Honda, Cipla. IDFC, JP Associates, Siemens and Jindal Steel were among the biggest Nifty losers.

The cues going into the week are positive as global markets stage strong recovery after the fall. The Dubai tumors look like beginning to fade but we expect the cracks would continue to haunt the markets going forward. The coming week’s market behavior would determine the medium term direction of the markets. If the deep financial crisis could be averted by synchronized collective stimuli from major nations, we feel this crisis should well be prevented from escalating. If markets succeed in touching the lows of Friday, then we might have some more pain left in the system. One must remain cautious for this week and traders must maintain strict stoplosses.

BUY
RANBAXY @ 438-440 Tgt 460 SL 432
GVKPIL @ 50-50.25 Tgt 52.50, 58 SL 49
GSPL @ 94-94.25 Tgt 100 SL 92
ORCHIDCHEM @ 178-180 Tgt 200 SL 172

SELL
IDFC @ 162-163 Tgt 156, 151 SL 166

23-Nov-09

Markets were trading undecided for the initial part of the week but move up on the last session to close the week with a gain of over 1% on both the Sensex and Nifty. While technology stocks corrected after witnessing steady rallies, Shipping and Cement stocks showed signs of reversal after staying low for many a month. Metals, Auto and Banking saw good gains while other sectors traded mixed for the week. Suzlon, Tata Steel, SAIL, Reliance Capital and Hero Honda were the major Nifty gainers with over 5% WoW rise while Reliance Infra, Bharti and HCL Tech were the major losers.

Markets are likely to trade stable with positive bias going forward. Any correction should be seen as more of a buying opportunity than a sign of reversal. Nifty may find support at 5000 and we may see 5200 being tested once again this week. We expect steel and banking stocks to witness rally in the coming weeks. Technology may remain sluggish while steel and banking may witness further upside. Trade stock specific and avoid short positions for the time being.

BUY
BEL @ CMP Tgt 1680 SL 1560
AUROPHARMA @ 776-780 Tgt 840 SL 760
TATASTEEL @ CMP Tgt 585 SL 540
DENABANK @ 79.5-80 Tgt 88 SL 76

16-Nov-09

Markets continue to move up in line with positive global markets and strong fundamental data emanating domestically. The IIP numbers show strong demand growth. The market breadth was extremely positive for second week in a row. Almost all sectors participated in the rally. HCL Tech, SAIL, IDFC, Reliance, Tata Motors, TCS, ICICI Bank, ZEE, Axis Bank, Siemens, Infosys, Jindal Steel, Wipro, Reliance Infra, M&M, Grasim, Reliance Capital and HDFC Bank were among the top gainers, all gaining more than 5% over the week.

Markets continue to strengthen as fears of the recession alleviate with every passing day. The global economy seems stabilizing. While the data across the globe suggest that the worst is behind us, it is amply clear that the next growth engines for the global economy are China and India. The possibilities of a fresh peak remain open from here. On the down side, we may see support coming in from funds, market participants and retail investors at every decline. Corrections should be utilized to buy into the strong momentum stocks. Nifty may find support below 4800 and may try to make an attempt to reach 5200 once again. Avoid carrying short positions.

BUY
BEL @ 1580-1590 Tgt 1680 SL 1560
ZEEL @ 253-255 Tgt 282 SL 248
TATATEA @ 895-900 Tgt 945 SL 880
HINDZINC @ 900-905 Tgt 960 SL 890
NATIONALUM @ 376-380 Tgt 404 SL 365
AUROPHARMA @ 755-760 Tgt 840 SL 730

SELL
RELCAPITAL @ 845-850 Tgt 800 SL 870

09-Nov-2009

Markets recovered from the lows taking cues from the global markets and on back of extremely encouraging auto sales and cement dispatch numbers. After falling sharply at the beginning of the week, markets recovered sharply to end the week with close to 1.8% gain on Nifty. The market breadth was positive with 4 stocks advancing for each losing stock. Bharti, ICICI Bank, Ranbaxy, GAIL, Unitech, Tata Steel, Zee and M&M were the prominent Nifty gainers while Ambuja Cement, Tata Power, ACC, HUL and Idea figured among the major losers in Nifty.

The results season is over and the overall direction of the markets would depend on the sentiment from global financial markets. Markets may trade volatile during the coming week finding resistance between 4850-4900 and support between 4500-4550. We expect the action to remain stock specific and hence it is recommended to resort to stock specific trades on either side.

BUY
WIPRO @ 590-592 Tgt 620 SL 580
CROMPGREAV @ 376-378 Tgt 400 SL 370
MCDOWELL-N @ 1055-1060 Tgt 1120 SL 1030
TATAMOTORS @ 558-560 Tgt 594 SL 550

SELL
BHARTIARTL @ 323-325 Tgt 300 SL 330
GMRINFRA @ 66-67 Tgt 63 SL 68
M&M @ 992-995 Tgt 940 SL 1020

03-Nov-09

Both Sensex and Nifty lost more than 5% over the week amid extremely negative market breadth. Almost all sectors witnessed profit taking without any exception. Only some of the IT and Pharma stocks showed some resilience. Dr Reddy, Ranbaxy, Tata Motors, Wipro, Sun Pharma, Zee and Grasim were the only stocks which managed to escape the week without losses. The prominent losers were RCOM, Suzlon, DLF, Unitech, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infra, Hindalco, Reliance Power, ICICI Bank, JP Associates, Idea, Bharti, Siemens, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and SAIL all of which lost more than 10% over the week.

As predicted last week, markets witnessed correction throughout the week amid volatile global markets. The correction may extend further as markets face resistance at every rise. 4500/4400 on Nifty is still a possibility but we may see a bounce back before that happening. 4850-4900 is a strong resistance for immediate term and we may see Nifty honoring this resistance. However, we may witness stock specific action going forward. Sell weaker sectors/stocks on rises and buy stronger ones on dips. Falls like these give opportunities to buy strong medium term stocks. Following are some of these stocks.

BUY
INDIANB @ 148-150 Tgt 220 SL 135
SUNPHARMA @ 1300-1320 Tgt 1600 SL 1220
POLARIS @ 150-152 Tgt 200 SL 140
OFSS @ 2050-2070 Tgt 2600 SL 1960