Sunday, August 31, 2008

Dated 1st September, 2008

Last week :
Markets gave a surprise rally on the first day of the new settlement with a more than 500 point rise in Sensex. Markets were trading weak throughout the week but wiped out all the losses with a stupendous rise on Friday to end the week with a percentage points on Sensex. Banking stocks were the top performers lead by HDFC Bank, which rose close to 8%. Bank Nifty rose more than 5% week on week. Satyam, PNB, M&M, HCL Tech and SAIL were the top Nifty gainers while Reliance was the major loser with a 4% fall.

Prediction for the Coming week :
The rally of Friday was a real surprise. Our markets out performed all other global markets at the slightest opportunity. Nifty finds support at 4280-4300 in the short term. Markets might open with a gap down but may recover from 4300. We expect the support of 4280-4300 to hold in the coming week, unless there is a very strong bad news waiting. 4400-4420 on Nifty looks a strong resistance and if it manages to breach this level 4500 and even 4580 looks a possibility. Exit long positions if Nifty drifts below 4280. Short positions may be contemplated below 4250 with a stoploss of 4300. For the week we see a trade band of 4280 – 4420 on Nifty.

Infosys Tech @ 1745-1750 Tgt 1805, 1840 SL 1730
Indian Bank @ 122-123 Tgt 131, 137 SL 120
Patni Computer Above 234 Tgt 248, 270 SL 227
Lupin @ 727-728 Tgt 745, 768 SL 720

GE Shipping @ 390-392 Tgt 380, 364, 337 SL 396
Maharastra Seamless @ 290-292 Tgt 281, 274 SL 296
Grasim @ 1960-1970 Tgt 1910, 1820 SL 1990
IVR Prime @ 170-172 Tgt 163, 156 SL 175
Hindustan Oil Exp @ 124-126 Tgt 118, 110 SL 128

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Outlook for the Week - Dated 25th August, 2008

Week that has gone by :
Markets were trading in negative territory for the major part of last week. Market breadth was negative and almost all the sectoral and mid-cap indices were in red. Oil marketing companies sprung negative surprises by losing heavily despite weak crude. There was no big out performances from any sector except odd Rolta and SAIL. Ranbaxy, Cipla, Tata Power, ABB and HDFC Bank were among the major gainers. ACC, BPCL, SBI, Grasim, Suzlon, Satyam, HCL Tech, Ambuja Cement, M&M, NTPC and GAIL were the top nifty losers.

Coming week :
Markets should see a slight bounce back after 2 weeks of weakness. The global clues are good and crude has crashed once again after rising above $120 per barrel. We might see Nifty give a bounce back to 4400-4420 levels but we don’t expect a very sharp move above this level. One should trade in ranges and do not expect huge rallies on either side. On the downside 4260 provides a good support. F&O expiry is due on this Thursday and in view of this, we recommend traders to avoid much exposure. We recommend stock specific trading and a trading band of 4260-4420 on Nifty.

Tata Power @ 1038-1040 Tgt 1090, 1120 SL 1020
LIC Housing Finance @ 320-322 Tgt 336, 344 SL 314
Biocon @ 395-398 Tgt 413, 440 SL 392
Bata India @ 171-172 Tgt 181, 192 SL 167

Cummins India @ 305-310 Tgt 288, 277 SL 318
GTL Below 190 Tgt 181 SL 193
Sesa Goa @ 160-161 Tgt 154, 148.50 SL 163
BEL @ 960-965 Tgt 900 SL 980

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Outlook for the Week beginning 18th August 2008

Last week :
The selling on the last trading session was more severe ahead of a long weekend and almost all sectors lost ground. Most of the F&O counters saw liquidation and hence witnessed reduction in open interest. Banking stocks got hit the most with a 6.5% fall in the Bank Nifty. Metals, Oil and Gas, Cement, Realty and Telecom stocks figured among the top losers. Cairn remained the top Nifty gainer followed by HCL Tech, Bajaj Auto, Siemens and Zee. HDFC, DLF, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, PNB, Hindalco, L&T and DR Reddy were the prominent losers all lost anywhere between 5-9%.
The coming week is going to be:
Get ready for another bout of selling after the Thursday’s fall and this fall will be more severe. We may witness selling coming from all quarters despite the weak crude. One has to play only short in markets if one were to take a short term call. We have every reason to believe that the shorts were already covered and further long liquidation is due. One has to act fast and get out of the long positions as quickly as possible and remain short for a week or so. We recommend traders to trade short in Nifty with a day close stoploss of 4480 and look for support levels of 4360 and further 4280, which look near term possibilities.

HDIL @ 442-444 Tgt 422, 398 SL 450
GTL @ 194-196 Tgt 188, 181 SL 198
Skumar Synfab @ 71-72 Tgt 68.50, 65.50 SL 73.50
RPL @ 163-164 Tgt 158.50, 154 SL 166
Rajesh Exports @ 52-52.50 Tgt 48.20, 44.50 SL 54
Sterling Bio @ 180-181 Tgt 172, 161 SL 184(day)
Praj Industries @ 183-184 Tgt 173, 168 SL 187