Markets traded with mixed to positive bias for the last week amid mixed set of fundamental data flow and positive corporate results. The action remained out of the index and select midcaps rallied as market breadth remained flat. Metals, Banking, Telecom and Capital Goods did well while IT and Financials saw some selling. It was a week which saw stock specific performances from all sectors. The top gainers among Nifty stocks included Ambuja Cement, GAIL, Tata Steel, Idea, Sterlite, Bharti and Hindalco while Dr Reddy, ABB and BPCL were among the top losers.
The cues from global markets are positive this morning and our markets back home are looking promising going ahead. Last couple of weeks witnessed a smart consolidation in the major indices followed by a strong breakout on Thursday keeping the chances alive for a strong rally going ahead. 17800 on Sensex and 5340 on Nifty are crucial support levels to keep the positive tone intact for initial target objectives of 20000 and 6000 respectively. Maintain stoploss below the said levels and continue to hold long.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Sunday, July 18, 2010
19-Jul-2010
Markets traded with positive bias for the last week with corporate numbers let the markets alive despite weakness in global markets. Infosys came with encouraging guidance for the year though profits for the quarter stayed below expectations. TCS results enthused the markets and the stock responded sharply. Banking sector came out of the range bound trading and many stocks in the sector broke out to record their respective yearly/all time highs. Oil and Gas stocks corrected sharply after moving up substantially during the past many weeks. Realty stocks staged a strong bounce back as metals, technology and Pharma stocks were trading mixed. Unitech, Tata Motors, TCS, DLF, Axis Bank and IDFC were among the major gainers while BPCL, GAIL, M&M, RCom and Infosys were among the major Nifty losers.
The global cues are weak going into the next week and as indications come in we might see a gap down opening. Markets look set for a strong rally even from these levels despite weakness elsewhere. Markets are holding near the crucial resistance of 5400 which shows the resilience. On the upside the target on Nifty may extend to 6000 during the coming 6 months with 5240 as support. A breach below 5200 may drift the markets down towards 4800. It is going to be stock pickers’ markets going further and hence one must look for buying opportunities on corrections in specific stocks.
The global cues are weak going into the next week and as indications come in we might see a gap down opening. Markets look set for a strong rally even from these levels despite weakness elsewhere. Markets are holding near the crucial resistance of 5400 which shows the resilience. On the upside the target on Nifty may extend to 6000 during the coming 6 months with 5240 as support. A breach below 5200 may drift the markets down towards 4800. It is going to be stock pickers’ markets going further and hence one must look for buying opportunities on corrections in specific stocks.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
12-Jul-2010
Both Sensex and Nifty inched up 2% over the week to close near the highs once again. Telecom stocks took a giant leap after months of underperformance and figured among the major gainers for the week. It was a secular run and all sectors participated in the rally amid positive market breadth. In F&O segment 4 stocks gained for every one stock lost and the rises came despite weakness in the global markets. That shows the strength Indian markets are depicting. Bharti, Idea, M&M, BPCL, DLF and Infosys were the top gainers while ACC, Reliance Infra, JP Associates and NTPC figured among the losers.
The first quarter results are round the corner and start pouring in from here on. All indications suggest a strong quarter and our markets will react positively to the numbers. IMF revised the GDP growth forecast for India and this gave a strong boost to the markets. The long term fundamentals are extremely strong for India and therefore sharp corrections should be utilized to buy the markets. In the immediate term Nifty finds resistance at 5400 and if it manages to close above this level, we may see strong rallies ahead. We expect markets to find resistance at 5400 and correct below 5000. A fall below 5240 confirms the corrective tone. Trade Stock specific with strict stoplosses and target objectives.
The first quarter results are round the corner and start pouring in from here on. All indications suggest a strong quarter and our markets will react positively to the numbers. IMF revised the GDP growth forecast for India and this gave a strong boost to the markets. The long term fundamentals are extremely strong for India and therefore sharp corrections should be utilized to buy the markets. In the immediate term Nifty finds resistance at 5400 and if it manages to close above this level, we may see strong rallies ahead. We expect markets to find resistance at 5400 and correct below 5000. A fall below 5240 confirms the corrective tone. Trade Stock specific with strict stoplosses and target objectives.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
05-Jun-10 - Markets ripe for a sharp decline
As predicted midcap and small cap stocks were in lime light while both Sensex and Nifty lost less than a percentage week on week. Markets were trading range bound with weak bias amid mixed global clues. PSU Oil Refining and Marketing companies were the major gainers during the week after the announcement of deregulation of fuel prices. BPCL, IDFC, Reliance Power and ONGC were the top Nifty gainers while Cairn, GAIL, Jindal Steel, Sterlite, Hindalco and Tata Steel were among the major losers.
The global markets are mixed and we can expect a flat opening in our markets. The global markets don’t look too rosy as the economic data emanating from US and Euro Zone doesn’t give any hopes of a sharp revival. The Euro Zone financial crisis shall escalate and percolate to other Euro Nations with high public debt to GDP ratio and ultimately clouding the sentiments over the structure of the currency and financial markets. The overall situation is that of uncertainty and in all probability India will emerge as a stronger nation.
5200 on Nifty is a strong near term support and breach of this level shall pave the way for a steep fall towards 5000 in the coming couple of weeks. A strong correction is long overdue and the quarterly results may well be the trigger. On the upside 5400 is a major resistance. Markets will find resistance near 5400 and may correct below 5000 with the possibilities of the fall being extended to 4600 remaining open.
Exit all long positions and traders are recommended to remain short on Nifty at every rise with an overall stoploss of 5400.
The global markets are mixed and we can expect a flat opening in our markets. The global markets don’t look too rosy as the economic data emanating from US and Euro Zone doesn’t give any hopes of a sharp revival. The Euro Zone financial crisis shall escalate and percolate to other Euro Nations with high public debt to GDP ratio and ultimately clouding the sentiments over the structure of the currency and financial markets. The overall situation is that of uncertainty and in all probability India will emerge as a stronger nation.
5200 on Nifty is a strong near term support and breach of this level shall pave the way for a steep fall towards 5000 in the coming couple of weeks. A strong correction is long overdue and the quarterly results may well be the trigger. On the upside 5400 is a major resistance. Markets will find resistance near 5400 and may correct below 5000 with the possibilities of the fall being extended to 4600 remaining open.
Exit all long positions and traders are recommended to remain short on Nifty at every rise with an overall stoploss of 5400.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
28-Jun-2010
Markets inched up sharply on the first trading day and corrected during the entire week to manage a close near the last week’s levels. Both Sensex and Nifty closed flat amid range bound trading. Mid cap stocks were active entire week and laggards were trying to play catch up with the markets. All the midcap and small cap indices closed the week with gains. Oil refiners and marketing companies got the deregulation boost from the govt and they staged a strong rally on Friday. Technology stocks corrected fair bit during the week while FMCG stocks were among major gainers.
Markets look undecided as to the direction and hence trade range bound for the coming week. 5200-5400 should be the band in Nifty and it requires breach of either of these levels to take a direction. The action will remain in midcap and small cap stocks as indicated by the market breadth previous week while indices consolidate in a narrow range. The laggards shall take charge here and play catch up. Global markets look for direction too and hence sluggish trading activity is expected across all asset classes. Stay stock specific with proper target objectives and adequate stoplosses.
BUY
BHARATFORG @ 284-286 TGT 304, 320 SL 278
TV-18 @ 90-91 TGT 100 SL 88
RELCAPITAL @ 758-760 TGT 840 SL 736
Markets look undecided as to the direction and hence trade range bound for the coming week. 5200-5400 should be the band in Nifty and it requires breach of either of these levels to take a direction. The action will remain in midcap and small cap stocks as indicated by the market breadth previous week while indices consolidate in a narrow range. The laggards shall take charge here and play catch up. Global markets look for direction too and hence sluggish trading activity is expected across all asset classes. Stay stock specific with proper target objectives and adequate stoplosses.
BUY
BHARATFORG @ 284-286 TGT 304, 320 SL 278
TV-18 @ 90-91 TGT 100 SL 88
RELCAPITAL @ 758-760 TGT 840 SL 736
Sunday, June 20, 2010
21-June-2010
Markets continue from where they left and extended the gains. Both Sensex and Nifty rallied closed to 3% over previous week. Market breadth was positive and markets traded with upward bias throughout the week. From a low of 5120 Nifty went on to touch one and a half month high breaching 5300 before settling down below 5300. Metals, Infrastructure, Technology, Telecom, Capital Goods and Power were the sectors which gained ground. Reliance ADA Group stocks need a special mention as all of them rallied after truce between Ambani brothers. Reliance Capital (7.75%), DLF (7.72%), L&T (7.24%), RCom (7.01%), Sterlite (6.78%), Reliance Power (6.66%) and Infosys (5.91%) were the major Nifty gainers. BPCL (3.57%), Grasim (3.30%), Bharti (3.13%) and Axis Bank (2.75%) were the major losers.
Global markets are trading positive this morning and we might see our markets open with small upside gap. The immediate resistance for Nifty exists near 5300 and a strong resistance awaits at 5400. It finds strong immediate term support at 5200. Only a breach of this level would negate the short term bullish momentum. Markets are likely to find resistance near 5400 and correct. The sovereign debt crisis is threatening to percolate to other Euro nations and this is going to be a major headwind for the global economic growth in the coming few quarters. There is a major risk of markets going into tailspin if the nations with high public debt to GDP ratios fail to garner much support and able to borrow with reasonable difference to benchmark rates. The recent demand for Spanish Bonds issue should be viewed as a short term reprieve. Hence in the medium term, the upside is capped near 5400 with the possibilities of Nifty attaining 4500 remaining open if the global issues escalate.
OPEN POSITIONS
UNIPHOS Bought @ 180 Tgt 200 SL 178
NAGARCONST Bought @ 176 Tgt 202, 220 SL 176
LITL Bought @ 60 Tgt 72 SL 64
YESBANK Bought @ 281 Tgt 304 SL 274
BUY
FEDERALBNK @ 324 Tgt 360 SL 316
Exited
MPHASIS SL Trig @ 590
HINDZINC SL Trig @ 990
Global markets are trading positive this morning and we might see our markets open with small upside gap. The immediate resistance for Nifty exists near 5300 and a strong resistance awaits at 5400. It finds strong immediate term support at 5200. Only a breach of this level would negate the short term bullish momentum. Markets are likely to find resistance near 5400 and correct. The sovereign debt crisis is threatening to percolate to other Euro nations and this is going to be a major headwind for the global economic growth in the coming few quarters. There is a major risk of markets going into tailspin if the nations with high public debt to GDP ratios fail to garner much support and able to borrow with reasonable difference to benchmark rates. The recent demand for Spanish Bonds issue should be viewed as a short term reprieve. Hence in the medium term, the upside is capped near 5400 with the possibilities of Nifty attaining 4500 remaining open if the global issues escalate.
OPEN POSITIONS
UNIPHOS Bought @ 180 Tgt 200 SL 178
NAGARCONST Bought @ 176 Tgt 202, 220 SL 176
LITL Bought @ 60 Tgt 72 SL 64
YESBANK Bought @ 281 Tgt 304 SL 274
BUY
FEDERALBNK @ 324 Tgt 360 SL 316
Exited
MPHASIS SL Trig @ 590
HINDZINC SL Trig @ 990
Sunday, June 13, 2010
14-June-2010
Markets moved up sharply during the latter half of the week after witnessing sharp fall for the initial half. Both Sensex and Nifty closed down by a meager loss of 0.31% week on week. The market breadth was negative with stock specific performances. Oil & Gas, Technology and Metals were particularly weak while Automobile and Cement stocks gained strength. M&M, Cipla, HDFC Bank and Siemens were among the top gainers while DLF, BPCL, Hindalco, HCL Tech and Unitech were the top Nifty losers.
Global markets are trading positive this Monday morning and we might see our markets open with small upside gap. The immediate resistance for Nifty exists at 5200. Nifty finds strong immediate term support near 5060 and would attempt to reach 5200. 5200-5220 band would act as a major resistance zone. If Nifty is able to breach this resistance, we may see it attaining 5400 in short term. The sovereign debt crisis is threatening to percolate to other Euro nations and this is going to be a major headwind for the global economic growth in the coming few quarters. There is a major risk of markets going into tailspin if the nations with high public debt to GDP ratios fail to garner much support and able to borrow with reasonable difference to benchmark rates. The recent demand for Spanish Bonds issue should be viewed as a short term reprieve. Hence in the medium term, the upside is capped near 5400 with the possibilities of Nifty attaining 4500 remaining open if the global issues escalate.
OPEN POSITIONS
UNIPHOS Bought @ 180 ON 8-JUN TGT 200 SL 175*
NAGARCONST Bought @ 176 ON 8-JUN TGT 202, 220 SL 176*
LITL Bought @ 60 ON 9-JUN TGT 72 SL 60*
MPHASIS Sold @ 570 ON 7-JUN TGT 520* SL 590
HINDZINC Sold @ 960 ON 7-JUN TGT 920* SL 990
FRESH POSITIONS
YESBANK Buy @ 280-282 TGT 304 SL 274
* Revised.
Global markets are trading positive this Monday morning and we might see our markets open with small upside gap. The immediate resistance for Nifty exists at 5200. Nifty finds strong immediate term support near 5060 and would attempt to reach 5200. 5200-5220 band would act as a major resistance zone. If Nifty is able to breach this resistance, we may see it attaining 5400 in short term. The sovereign debt crisis is threatening to percolate to other Euro nations and this is going to be a major headwind for the global economic growth in the coming few quarters. There is a major risk of markets going into tailspin if the nations with high public debt to GDP ratios fail to garner much support and able to borrow with reasonable difference to benchmark rates. The recent demand for Spanish Bonds issue should be viewed as a short term reprieve. Hence in the medium term, the upside is capped near 5400 with the possibilities of Nifty attaining 4500 remaining open if the global issues escalate.
OPEN POSITIONS
UNIPHOS Bought @ 180 ON 8-JUN TGT 200 SL 175*
NAGARCONST Bought @ 176 ON 8-JUN TGT 202, 220 SL 176*
LITL Bought @ 60 ON 9-JUN TGT 72 SL 60*
MPHASIS Sold @ 570 ON 7-JUN TGT 520* SL 590
HINDZINC Sold @ 960 ON 7-JUN TGT 920* SL 990
FRESH POSITIONS
YESBANK Buy @ 280-282 TGT 304 SL 274
* Revised.
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