Monday, January 26, 2009

Dated 27th January, 2009



It was another week of downfall and almost all major and sectoral indices saw major falls. Reliance came out with better than expected quarterly numbers but still could not climb much. The weakness was visible all across and Banking was particularly weak despite good results from PSU banks. Powergrid was the biggest Nifty gainer with a 13% rise during the week while Zee lost about a fourth of its market cap. Nalco, Jet airways, Cipla and Hero Honda managed to hold into the green while Tata Steel, M&M, DLF, Ranbaxy, ICICI Bank, Hindalco, Siemens, RCom, Grasim, L&T, Maruti, Tata Motors, Maruti, SBI, HDFC, PNB, Wipro and Sail lost between 10-20% during the week.

A decisive close below 2700 on Nifty more or less indicates the things to come. There seems to be unanimity of opinion about the fall now and what we are going to witness is a range bound movement in Nifty for this week. The put call ratio suggests a range of 2600-2700 on Nifty until this expiry. One should indulge in stock specific short trades and pick the right counters to stay short. Cement counters remained quiet without much downside in January. We might see sharp downward rallies in cement in the coming month and hence we recommend traders to stay short in cement. The chances of negative shocks far exceed the possibility of a positive surprise and we may going forward see some more skeletons falling as promoters feel the funds crunch and had to come out in open due to desperation. We don’t want to get struck with another Satyam, or do we? Avoid buying.

Following are some of the positional calls for the month of February. Initiate short positions in counters where the Feb futures are tradina at or nearing initiation prices with appropriate day close stoplosses. Some stocks may not hit Initiation prices but the targets are in tact. Wait for the right opportunity and go short. Avoid trading long.


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